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Travel agents took 10 years to collapse. Developers are 3 years in

martinalderson.com

31–34 of 34 posts

Re: Travel agents took 10 years to collapse. Developers are 3 years in

#31

>Opus 4.5 has really startled me - it genuinely can do complex software engineering tasks which I'd expect a proficient developer to take hours in minutes with very few defects. I don't use Opus, but I use Sonnet 4.5 and ChatGpt 5.1, which are only a bit down the chart. in my daily experience, these tools can help with many tasks - scaffolding crud, writing tests, explaining how this or that part of the code works, a…

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Re: Travel agents took 10 years to collapse. Developers are 3 years in

#32

Off topic, but I’d love a good travel agent: someone who would help me cut through all the SEO and slop reviews to find the good hotels, tours, etc., and take care of booking and logistics. We’ve used some location-specific agencies that have been really good to work with, but you first have to find them . I’d happily pay a premium to someone who would work globally. Do such things exist?

A friend started that type of business in my country a few years ago (end covid): she is pretty successful and I gave her a chance for a trip I am on now. It mostly exposed how absolutely terrible everyone seems to be at this: she did absolutely lazy work I could have done fast(er) and better myself (usually do and will do again), but, seeing her other clients, including a friend, it seems most people are just really…

There is a subset of society who assumes by default people are good at their titles.

Don’t ask me how those people are still being born, it don’t make a ton of sense to me.

Re: Travel agents took 10 years to collapse. Developers are 3 years in

#33
post #25

I've been unable to convince any "businessy" or liberal arts people to vibe code. I've attempted with everyone in my immediate family, friends, etc. Even when they sit on the computer and watch the AI type out a script for them that saves them hours/day, they get an "ick" factor that prevents them from trying again. They'd rather ask me to talk to the AI for them and pay me money to do so. Heck one of my cousins offe…

Do you remember when travel agents were still around? Most people would absolutely never even consider using their computer to book a ticket. It was nearly 2010 before I could convince my mother to enter her credit card for Amazon. Just because someone isn't interested in vibe coding today doesn't mean they won't be using similar most polished tools in the very near future.

And yet many people would rather use Expedia or Google than buy the flights directly.

Re: Travel agents took 10 years to collapse. Developers are 3 years in

#34
post #25

I've been unable to convince any "businessy" or liberal arts people to vibe code. I've attempted with everyone in my immediate family, friends, etc. Even when they sit on the computer and watch the AI type out a script for them that saves them hours/day, they get an "ick" factor that prevents them from trying again. They'd rather ask me to talk to the AI for them and pay me money to do so. Heck one of my cousins offe…

I’ve seen experienced software developers make impressive stuff with AI. I haven’t seen anything interesting made with AI by non-developers. They make a landing page or something. It’s just… barely anything. It’s a nothing of a project.

We use AI a lot at work, and the developers are vastly better at getting AI to do what we need than the non-developers. AI is a tool, and like any tool, it takes effort to learn how to use it effectively. And so far, the skills to use AI effectively are something I’ve only seen in software developers.

I don’t think product people are going to replace devs. Ever. I agree that I think a dispersal is more likely than an outright crash.

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