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Should we fear Microsoft's monopoly?

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Re: Should we fear Microsoft's monopoly?

#31
post #3

People forget that Microsoft was in position to compete because of Gates' and Allen's stellar BASIC. They were hand-picked by IBM because the market loved BASIC to the point of pirating it before that was even a thing. They cared about the product. In some of the Microsoft lore there seems to be a split between Gates as an "end user" guy and Ballmer as an "enterprise" guy. Despite taking his lumps in the late 2010s,…

Gates cared about products deeply. This lot? They only care about the shareholder, not the customer, and we all know how that turned out for GE and Boeing. It's a long path, but it's a path of degradation. I am pretty sure the the file explorer is "slow" because it's doing cloud sync crap in order to collect my data.

Considering Gates was instrumental in bringing MS and OpenAI together, I think this is just greatmanning.

Re: Should we fear Microsoft's monopoly?

#32
> Even if the Netherlands makes every effort now, a fully-fledged alternative won't be readily available.

You don't need to match their product. You have a smaller user base and smaller number of functionally to cover than Microsoft.

> That gives American companies power.

Guess what happens if you don't do anything?

The trend of universities sacrificing long-term sovereignty for minimal short-term savings is concerning. I have observed this in my home country, where the strategic investment in national technology (which would return back to the country) is dismissed in favor of cheaper foreign platforms like Google. This approach naively puts sensitive research and institutional data on external servers, creating vulnerability where access could be compromised[^1].

Hopefully this person does not express the opinion of that university.

[^1]: https://agorarn.com.br/ultimas/google-bloqueia-acesso-ufrn-c...

Re: Should we fear Microsoft's monopoly?

#33

The article is quite light in its definition of "monopoly". It's hard to take this seriously given that the ecosystem of alternatives has never been richer, IMO. Word processing? Notion for web natives; my kids are growing up on Google Docs and Canva and will never know Office. Email? Same for Gmail vs Outlook. Messaging? While Microsoft gets a big chunk of the market via bundling Teams, there's Slack and a slew of o…

Switching from Office to Libre Office would take about ten minutes training, for most people's usage. The software can be installed in less than that. Just another log on the fire: Microsoft holds a lion's share of market, but not a monopoly (anymore).

Plus finding another email provider and client, finding a chat app, cloud storage, etc

Re: Should we fear Microsoft's monopoly?

#34

There are Microsoft alternatives for everything they offer. OS: Ubuntu is British, Linux Mint is Irish, there are French distributions, and let's not forget SUSe from Germany. Office: there is LibreOffice, which is not very good IMO, but also OnlyOffice, I think it is German, also Proton, and Infomaniak from CH. For file sharing, NextCloud exists, but if you want cloud services, there's Jottacloud, Koofr, Proton Driv…

How did you forget that Apple offers alternatives to almost everything Microsoft has, and is one of the world's largest companies?

Re: Should we fear Microsoft's monopoly?

#35

The article is quite light in its definition of "monopoly". It's hard to take this seriously given that the ecosystem of alternatives has never been richer, IMO. Word processing? Notion for web natives; my kids are growing up on Google Docs and Canva and will never know Office. Email? Same for Gmail vs Outlook. Messaging? While Microsoft gets a big chunk of the market via bundling Teams, there's Slack and a slew of o…

The word 'monopoly' may be not quite right but the premise is.

The notion of 'there are other choices' is simply not the measure of a competitive landscape in systems with very high switching costs, incumbencies.

The pedestrian view that we have for 'competition' is 'retail' - you move from one shop to the next.

Big Industry is nothing like that.

They entrench themselves, with standards, process, procurement, brand, strategic leverage at the Executive layer, regulatory capture.

My local 'pharmacy corner store' has the same 10 chocolate bars my whole life: KitKat, Coffee Crisp etc. It never changes.

Does anyone in the world think that KitKat has some magical 'product quality' beyond the 10 000 other variations of chocolate?

No - they have 'market power'. They control distribution, they have deeply entrenched relationships with retail, they have relationships with coco producers, which shows up in a lot of ways.

If a buyer want access to the release of the 'New Swiffer' - you can't just try to 'drop our other products' like KitKat, besides, consumers have not been trained on a different product.

Consumers have seen a lifetime of KitKat ads, we don't necessarily like it, but it's a known quantity and we basically 'submit'. There are other choices, but a bit further back, a bit more expensive, a bit more unknown.

The very fact that 'chocolate bars' are unambiguously a commodity - and yet - there is no 'apparent broad market' should well serve to starting thinking more about how these systems work.

Google pays Apple an absolute fortune to be the 'first choice' on iPhone.

Google pays a fortune to create/control Chrome - which makes $0 in revenue, but which is a critical distributional component.

So your kids use 'something else' because they're in a situation where they can - but when the go to the office - do they make their own choice? No - IT does.

If IT wants to move away from just Word - then they loose deep integration with so many other things: MS Office is designed to be fully integrated precisely to thwart off all of those individual incumbents - the only way someone can make inroads, is on the margins with something really powerful, like 'Airtable'. Even then, it's relatively niche.

Combine that with the Operating System, which integrates deeply with chipsets and scale, and you can see the power.

I think that Slack is essentially a superior product, but the law firms, energy companies, gov offices are going to be sold 'Teams' and that's it. I know a lot of people who use teams and have literally never hear of Slack.

Slack is the 'niche chocolate bar in aisle 3 that costs 20% more, that they have never tried and not sure about - just buy KitKat'.

I have colleagues - very educated - who only use Copilot for AI - they think that's AI. They're not allowed to use anything else - because 'security'. Copilot is a ridiculously inferior product, not only do they exist in the ignorance of that, they actually think it's 'great', partly because 'It's Microsoft'.

The power of 'Brand at Scale' is really hard to fathom - managers and executives particularly are moved by this. They probably believe in institutional power and legitimacy more than anything and so MS because a 'hard default' that becomes difficult to overturn.

If there's a problem with some 'uppity gov. official' somewhere - MS can make discounts, steak dinners, custom integration, talk to people higher up in government, and make a strong case as why disrupting the 'default' should not happen.

ERP like SAP ... are just interminably integrated, and AWS/GCP are practically different products they are so different.

All of that is the tip of the iceberg.

There is no 'free market' in the way our instinct may apply, which is mostly derived from our 'retail' position in the value chain - the market operates a bit more differently at that level.

At that level 'Market Power' is the dominating factor, and 'product' is always second, generally things need only be 'sufficiently good'.

MS is an ok company and can create 'workable products', Google has some 'great' (and some terrible products), it's all they have to do to perpetuate - there is absolutely nothing anyone could do to displace them without some non-market force (aka government regulates competition).

If this dependency becomes a problem , and I would suggest finally in 2025 it is, then the only way out is coordinated action.

After all that I just said, the true power of institutionalization is not always hugely critical: if KitKat disappeared tomorrow nobody would care. If MS word was removed ... and everyone just choose something else, the world would not miss a beat. I truly believe that if we all woke up tomorrow and had to use Bing, it wouldn't matter that much.

Aside from major market disturbances, like AI in which those 'adept players' will probably be ahead anyhow, then it takes coordinated action to disrupt these systems.

It's much better to view those things through the lens of 'power' and not so much 'product', unless 'product' is absolutely decisive, novel, and/or it exists outside of locked-down value chains.

Re: Should we fear Microsoft's monopoly?

#36

Earlier quoted context omitted.

And if any of them work for the government, for example, they are going to be forced into Microsoft Office. I also don’t find it very reassuring how many people here are saying “well everything they do is on Google.” Same problem, different flavor.

> they are going to be forced into Microsoft Office Not by Microsoft. And to be clear, this is far from modern day truth. My wife "works for the government" and the municipality uses Google.

> Not by Microsoft.

That doesn’t make it not a monopoly

Re: Should we fear Microsoft's monopoly?

#38
> TU/e and ICT cooperative SURF are also looking for replacements for Microsoft and Google. However, a fully-fledged European alternative is not yet available...

The only possible alternative to the entirety of Microsoft/Google is a European monopoly that is similar in scale. Indeed, such a monopoly does not exist (nor should it). People go to Microsoft and Google because they're already spending money on one product of theirs and there happens to be this completely different product of theirs which you also need as a business user. Sooner or later you end up using 20 completely different products that are "well-integrated" because at no point did you look for an alternative to any of those use cases.

Your job is not to go from 100% reliance on Google/Microsoft to 0% reliance, that'll never happen. Your job is to look at their offerings in isolation and reduce your reliance one product at a time. And yes, paying for 20 products from 20 companies is gonna cost you more when each of them needs to be profitable separately, only monopolies can afford to offer some product at a permanent loss.

Re: Should we fear Microsoft's monopoly?

#39
post #6

Awful piece and so incredibly discouraging to hear that this kind of person has influence at such an organization. They must have some personal incentive in one way or another to keep close to the status quo. Anyone large organization has ever moved away from dependency on US BigTech has done so piece by piece. China is the prime example. They've been decreasing their dependencies every year back from when it was at…

>Awful piece and so incredibly discouraging to hear that this kind of person has influence at such an organization. That's modern academia for you.

The CISO of a university is not an academic; neither is a writer at its student magazine.

Re: Should we fear Microsoft's monopoly?

#40

There are Microsoft alternatives for everything they offer. OS: Ubuntu is British, Linux Mint is Irish, there are French distributions, and let's not forget SUSe from Germany. Office: there is LibreOffice, which is not very good IMO, but also OnlyOffice, I think it is German, also Proton, and Infomaniak from CH. For file sharing, NextCloud exists, but if you want cloud services, there's Jottacloud, Koofr, Proton Driv…

With exception to Ubuntu and maybe Office your list is mostly enterprise-incomplete. Big corp cares about Active Directory, Teams, Azure and most of all Exchange (M365). Microsoft have managed to carefully pack all of these around Microsoft Entra and most IT admins in big corps are keen to get on-board with that.

We lost a big customer yesterday to Microsoft. They offered them much more than we could and there were also internal politics where I believe most of that customer's IT pushed towards that decision. I think the culture around alternatives, especially European-made or maybe European-supported is lacking. This has to change.

edit: typo

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