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The "confident idiot" problem: Why AI needs hard rules, not vibe checks

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Re: The "confident idiot" problem: Why AI needs hard rules, not vibe checks

#31

We are trying to fix probability with more probability. That is a losing game. Thanks for pointing out the elephant in the room with LLMs. The basic design is non-deterministic. Trying to extract "facts" or "truth" or "accuracy" is an exercise in futility.

lol humans are non-deterministic too

But we also have a stake in our society, in the form of a reputation or accountability, that greatly influences our behaviour. So comparing us to an LLM has always been meaningless anyway.

Re: The "confident idiot" problem: Why AI needs hard rules, not vibe checks

#32

OP here. I wrote this because I got tired of agents confidently guessing answers when they should have asked for clarification (e.g. guessing "Springfield, IL" instead of asking "Which state?" when asked "weather in Springfield"). I built an open-source library to enforce these logic/safety rules outside the model loop: https://github.com/imtt-dev/steer

This approach kind of reminds me of taking an open-book test. Performing mandatory verification against a ground truth is like taking the test, then going back to your answers and looking up whether they match.

Unlike a student, the LLM never arrives at a sort of epistemic coherence, where they know what they know, how they know it, and how true it's likely to be. So you have to structure every problem into a format where the response can be evaluated against an external source of truth.

Re: The "confident idiot" problem: Why AI needs hard rules, not vibe checks

#34

OP here. I wrote this because I got tired of agents confidently guessing answers when they should have asked for clarification (e.g. guessing "Springfield, IL" instead of asking "Which state?" when asked "weather in Springfield"). I built an open-source library to enforce these logic/safety rules outside the model loop: https://github.com/imtt-dev/steer

Thanks a lot for this. Also one question in case anyone could shed a bit of light: my understanding is that setting temperature=0, top_p=1 would cause deterministic output (identical output given identical input). For sure it won’t prevent factually wrong replies/hallucination, only maintains generation consistency (eq. classification tasks). Is this universally correct or is it dependent on model used? (or downright wrong understanding of course?)

Re: The "confident idiot" problem: Why AI needs hard rules, not vibe checks

#35
post #31

Earlier quoted context omitted.

lol humans are non-deterministic too

But we also have a stake in our society, in the form of a reputation or accountability, that greatly influences our behaviour. So comparing us to an LLM has always been meaningless anyway.

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Re: The "confident idiot" problem: Why AI needs hard rules, not vibe checks

#36

Earlier quoted context omitted.

lol humans are non-deterministic too

Human minds are more complicated than a language model that behaves like a stochastic echo.

Birds are more complicated than jet engines, but jet engines travel a lot faster.

Re: The "confident idiot" problem: Why AI needs hard rules, not vibe checks

#37

We are trying to fix probability with more probability. That is a losing game. Thanks for pointing out the elephant in the room with LLMs. The basic design is non-deterministic. Trying to extract "facts" or "truth" or "accuracy" is an exercise in futility.

Exactly. We treat them like databases, but they are hallucination machines. My thesis isn't that we can stop the hallucinating (non-determinism), but that we can bound it. If we wrap the generation in hard assertions (e.g., assert response.price > 0), we turn 'probability' into 'manageable software engineering.' The generation remains probabilistic, but the acceptance criteria becomes binary and deterministic.

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Re: The "confident idiot" problem: Why AI needs hard rules, not vibe checks

#38

We are trying to fix probability with more probability. That is a losing game. Thanks for pointing out the elephant in the room with LLMs. The basic design is non-deterministic. Trying to extract "facts" or "truth" or "accuracy" is an exercise in futility.

You could make an LLM deterministic if you really wanted to without a big loss in performance (fix random seeds, make MoE batching deterministic). That would not fix hallucinations.

I don't think using deterministic / stochastic as a diagnostic is accurate here - I think that what we're really talking is about some sort of fundamental 'instability' of LLMs a la chaos theory.

Re: The "confident idiot" problem: Why AI needs hard rules, not vibe checks

#39

We are trying to fix probability with more probability. That is a losing game. Thanks for pointing out the elephant in the room with LLMs. The basic design is non-deterministic. Trying to extract "facts" or "truth" or "accuracy" is an exercise in futility.

Determinism is not the issue. Synonyms exist, there are multiple ways to express the same message. When numeric models are fit to say scientific measurements, they do quite a good job at modeling the probability distribution. With a corpus of text we are not modeling truths but claims. The corpus contains contradicting claims. Humans have conflicting interests. Source-aware training (which can't be done as an afterth…

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Re: The "confident idiot" problem: Why AI needs hard rules, not vibe checks

#40

We are trying to fix probability with more probability. That is a losing game. Thanks for pointing out the elephant in the room with LLMs. The basic design is non-deterministic. Trying to extract "facts" or "truth" or "accuracy" is an exercise in futility.

I find it amusing that once you try to take LLMs and do productive work with them either this problem trips you up constantly OR the LLM ends up becoming a shallow UI over an existing app (not necessarily better, just different).
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