We are trying to fix probability with more probability. That is a losing game. Thanks for pointing out the elephant in the room with LLMs. The basic design is non-deterministic. Trying to extract "facts" or "truth" or "accuracy" is an exercise in futility.
lol humans are non-deterministic too
The "confident idiot" problem: Why AI needs hard rules, not vibe checks
31–40 of 399 posts
Re: The "confident idiot" problem: Why AI needs hard rules, not vibe checks
#32OP here. I wrote this because I got tired of agents confidently guessing answers when they should have asked for clarification (e.g. guessing "Springfield, IL" instead of asking "Which state?" when asked "weather in Springfield"). I built an open-source library to enforce these logic/safety rules outside the model loop: https://github.com/imtt-dev/steer
Unlike a student, the LLM never arrives at a sort of epistemic coherence, where they know what they know, how they know it, and how true it's likely to be. So you have to structure every problem into a format where the response can be evaluated against an external source of truth.
Re: The "confident idiot" problem: Why AI needs hard rules, not vibe checks
#33Re: The "confident idiot" problem: Why AI needs hard rules, not vibe checks
#34OP here. I wrote this because I got tired of agents confidently guessing answers when they should have asked for clarification (e.g. guessing "Springfield, IL" instead of asking "Which state?" when asked "weather in Springfield"). I built an open-source library to enforce these logic/safety rules outside the model loop: https://github.com/imtt-dev/steer
Re: The "confident idiot" problem: Why AI needs hard rules, not vibe checks
#35Re: The "confident idiot" problem: Why AI needs hard rules, not vibe checks
#36Re: The "confident idiot" problem: Why AI needs hard rules, not vibe checks
#37We are trying to fix probability with more probability. That is a losing game. Thanks for pointing out the elephant in the room with LLMs. The basic design is non-deterministic. Trying to extract "facts" or "truth" or "accuracy" is an exercise in futility.
Exactly. We treat them like databases, but they are hallucination machines. My thesis isn't that we can stop the hallucinating (non-determinism), but that we can bound it. If we wrap the generation in hard assertions (e.g., assert response.price > 0), we turn 'probability' into 'manageable software engineering.' The generation remains probabilistic, but the acceptance criteria becomes binary and deterministic.
Re: The "confident idiot" problem: Why AI needs hard rules, not vibe checks
#38We are trying to fix probability with more probability. That is a losing game. Thanks for pointing out the elephant in the room with LLMs. The basic design is non-deterministic. Trying to extract "facts" or "truth" or "accuracy" is an exercise in futility.
I don't think using deterministic / stochastic as a diagnostic is accurate here - I think that what we're really talking is about some sort of fundamental 'instability' of LLMs a la chaos theory.
Re: The "confident idiot" problem: Why AI needs hard rules, not vibe checks
#39We are trying to fix probability with more probability. That is a losing game. Thanks for pointing out the elephant in the room with LLMs. The basic design is non-deterministic. Trying to extract "facts" or "truth" or "accuracy" is an exercise in futility.
Determinism is not the issue. Synonyms exist, there are multiple ways to express the same message. When numeric models are fit to say scientific measurements, they do quite a good job at modeling the probability distribution. With a corpus of text we are not modeling truths but claims. The corpus contains contradicting claims. Humans have conflicting interests. Source-aware training (which can't be done as an afterth…
Re: The "confident idiot" problem: Why AI needs hard rules, not vibe checks
#40We are trying to fix probability with more probability. That is a losing game. Thanks for pointing out the elephant in the room with LLMs. The basic design is non-deterministic. Trying to extract "facts" or "truth" or "accuracy" is an exercise in futility.