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Is America's jobs market nearing a cliff?

economist.com

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Re: Is America's jobs market nearing a cliff?

#34

Post by programmertote »

chasd00 wrote: post #4

Ftfa (the part I could read) “ growth is buoyed by an exuberant stockmarket and artificial-intelligence investment, while ordinary Americans languish” Black Friday sales set records and it not even cyber Monday. If Americans are languishing then shouldn’t holiday spending be down?

I postponed all of my CPG and miscellaneous purchases (think AA batteries, socks, winter pants, skin lotion, body wash, etc.) until Black Friday "sales". I also stocked up on stuff like Ramen. I did NOT buy anything special for myself (e.g., I really wanted Switch 2, but I think it's too overpriced and decided not to pull the trigger).

I'd not be surprised if a good number of people did the same. PLUS, the prices rose by quite a bit between the start of the year and now. So we need to see if this increase is sales match up to inflation (which, unfortunately, would be more difficult to rely on knowing that that metric has become politicized.)

Re: Is America's jobs market nearing a cliff?

#38

Post by jeffbee »

master_crab wrote: post #17
chasd00 wrote: post #4

Ftfa (the part I could read) “ growth is buoyed by an exuberant stockmarket and artificial-intelligence investment, while ordinary Americans languish” Black Friday sales set records and it not even cyber Monday. If Americans are languishing then shouldn’t holiday spending be down?

Black Friday did not set records. Bloomberg stated that it was up 4.1%, but that was not inflation adjusted. So it was just slightly higher than flat. Not necessarily a bad thing…but not great either. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-11-29/black-fri...

You also have to adjust such things for population, which was up about .6% in August vs. last August, the latest data we have.

Re: Is America's jobs market nearing a cliff?

#39

Post by garciasn »

listenallyall wrote: post #21
chasd00 wrote: post #4

Ftfa (the part I could read) “ growth is buoyed by an exuberant stockmarket and artificial-intelligence investment, while ordinary Americans languish” Black Friday sales set records and it not even cyber Monday. If Americans are languishing then shouldn’t holiday spending be down?

Black Friday has become Cyber Monday as well. Everyone has a phone, nobody is waiting to log on to their PC at work to do some online shopping. The holiday season on the whole is a much better indicator, not just one single day. And even then, spending needs to be checked against debt incurred.

Black Friday started weeks before the actual day in order to increase the spending. It’s not an apples to apples comparison to prior years.

Re: Is America's jobs market nearing a cliff?

#40

Post by DaveZale »

programmertote wrote: post #34
chasd00 wrote: post #4

Ftfa (the part I could read) “ growth is buoyed by an exuberant stockmarket and artificial-intelligence investment, while ordinary Americans languish” Black Friday sales set records and it not even cyber Monday. If Americans are languishing then shouldn’t holiday spending be down?

I postponed all of my CPG and miscellaneous purchases (think AA batteries, socks, winter pants, skin lotion, body wash, etc.) until Black Friday "sales". I also stocked up on stuff like Ramen. I did NOT buy anything special for myself (e.g., I really wanted Switch 2, but I think it's too overpriced and decided not to pull the trigger). I'd not be surprised if a good number of people did the same. PLUS, the prices ros…

fwiw the Tokyo noodle packs' price actually dropped, if instant noodles is one of your staples.
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