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Are We Doomed?

lrb.co.uk

31–40 of 73 posts

Re: Are We Doomed?

#31
post #29

My feeling is that birth rate could be solved in properly authoritarian country. With policies that won't fit to most "western" schemes. Ban birth control pill Ban Abortion Largely limit social media Subsidize recreational activities like bars and other such drugs After people have accidental kids, they will figure out the food, housing and so on.

>My feeling is that birth rate could be solved in properly authoritarian country.

Socialist Romania did all that during communist rule and it exploded spectacularly 30+ years later when communism ended, that we're still feeling the negative backlash effects today.

The answer to birth rate issues, is not more forced government intervention, but less to none of it. The reason we're in a mess in the west is the governments putting too many thumbs on the economic and regulatory scales for far too long, manipulating the natural order of life. Modern industrialized highly skilled societies are detrimental to human biological reproduction.

If you built an economic system where kids need to leave the parents' village to go spend time grinding studying and upskilling till their mid 20s in a big city and then working till their mid 30s before they afford to move out of shoebox, with their parents nowhere near to help with childcare, you can't be surprised demographics collapse. As per the saying goes, it takes a village to raise a child.

You can't fuck with mother nature and not have it fuck you back. It's Newton's Third Law.

Plus, contrary to Reaganomics, the economy can't grow infinitely and neither can the population. Everything created by man eventually has a plateau and an end. So then why not reform the dated and broken "infinite growth" Ponzi-scheme economic system now towards a more sustainable model, instead of delaying its inevitable failure with stuff like 50 year mortgages and unlimited migration?

Re: Are We Doomed?

#32
post #29

My feeling is that birth rate could be solved in properly authoritarian country. With policies that won't fit to most "western" schemes. Ban birth control pill Ban Abortion Largely limit social media Subsidize recreational activities like bars and other such drugs After people have accidental kids, they will figure out the food, housing and so on.

You could also skip all that noise and just force women to have kids.

Thankfully most people have realized such things are insane and sexist, and don't want to see millions of more kids born to parents unable to properly care for them.

Re: Are We Doomed?

#33
post #24

Earlier quoted context omitted.

How do we know there was only 1,000-10,000 individuals, 70,000 years ago?

I was wondering the same question, and IIRC it's due to the DNA diversity we have today. This is roughly calculated with the successive generations of humans and accounting possible mutations.

If this is the case, how can we know whether that number represents a drop in population or not? Can we measure population size 100,000 years ago? 50,000? Then compare them? What about that number represented as % of total population? 1,000-10,000 sounds low, but our population probably wasn't very high that long ago either.

Re: Are We Doomed?

#34
post #22

One statement in there grates: the idea that there never was a big population drop before. We know it from genetic records that human population dropped to a very low number. The human population bottleneck around 70,000 years ago, ie Toba supervolcano eruption, with 1,000 to 10,000 breeding individuals. There may have been other humans around, their lines all died out.

From TFA: > Because Homo sapiens went through a series of near extinction level events before eventually triumphing – periodically reduced to a few thousand surviving members clinging on in a handful of African enclaves – we have very little genetic variation. The human family tree spreads out from a few individuals to encompass all of us.

And yet, we are still here and will still be here, even if we get reduced to a few thousand again

Re: Are We Doomed?

#35
post #5

Natural selection has been strongly optimizing for pro-natal genes and cultures since the introduction of the birth control pill. The labor gap is a short-term problem and can be fixed with immigration and maybe AI. Birth rates aren't plummeting around the world at the same time. By the time the birth rate becomes a problem in Africa, America would have long recovered.

> Birth rates aren't plummeting around the world at the same time. They are "plummeting around the world at the same time," they just didn't start plummeting everywhere at the same time. > The labor gap is a short-term problem and can be fixed with immigration and maybe AI. Birth rates aren't plummeting around the world at the same time. By the time the birth rate becomes a problem in Africa, America would have long…

> They are "plummeting around the world at the same time," they just didn't start plummeting everywhere at the same time.

This is pedantic. Do you understand what "at the same time" means? By the time birth rates plummet below replacement rate in Africa, they would have risen well above replacement again in Europe and North America.

> Except Africa can't fill the gap for everywhere else, and if immigration is the "solution" then what do you do about Africa after it's been sucked dry of its prime labor force? Just leave all its poor elderly to die on their own?

We won't need to import labor from Africa when they have their own labor shortage because the birth rate in the US would have already recovered. The labor gap won't hit everywhere at the same time. That's why immigration works. In fact, Africa might need to import labor from America when the gap hits them.

Re: Are We Doomed?

#36

One statement in there grates: the idea that there never was a big population drop before. We know it from genetic records that human population dropped to a very low number. The human population bottleneck around 70,000 years ago, ie Toba supervolcano eruption, with 1,000 to 10,000 breeding individuals. There may have been other humans around, their lines all died out.

>One statement in there grates: the idea that there never was a big population drop before

Nobody actually thinks there was never a population drop. The issue is there never was an economic, pension and welfare system built on population growth, so that when populations did dip, nobody was affected by the dip.

But on the contrary, in the past of agrarian societies, population declines massively benefited the working class, as they had more bargaining power with the landlords.

This doesn't work in the economies and societies of today when your retirement depends on there being constant economic and population growth.

Re: Are We Doomed?

#37
post #29

My feeling is that birth rate could be solved in properly authoritarian country. With policies that won't fit to most "western" schemes. Ban birth control pill Ban Abortion Largely limit social media Subsidize recreational activities like bars and other such drugs After people have accidental kids, they will figure out the food, housing and so on.

I'm not sure. I know a lot of people who want to have kids, but are not because of the current economic situation. Whether this is real or perceived I am not sure; I have 3 kids, but I am doing alright at the moment.

The simple answer is that our current way of life (in the west at least) does not accommodate kids. We USED to have kids because they were an economic benefit to agrerian cultures, but have since become a burden since our society does not make time or resources for them, least of which is physical space when you consider urban life.

IF we want to increase the birth rate again, we need to shift our lifestyles away from being as career centric as they are today. We could for instance, remove the stigma of working part time or having a stay at home parent. We could encourage people not to grind long hours to climb the corporate ladder. Actually fix the housing problem without bending to NIMBYists and investors and provide affordable/accessible childcare.

Since children are the future tax-base and labor force of a nation, pay parents for raising kids, like its a job. It is kind of gross to view children in this perspective, but if we are talking about economics, well-adjusted children are just as much an input just as much as energy is.

Technologically speaking, we as a species are basically magic at this point, so I reject the notion that strategically recovering the birth rate is impossible, rather there is no will to.

Re: Are We Doomed?

#38
post #29

My feeling is that birth rate could be solved in properly authoritarian country. With policies that won't fit to most "western" schemes. Ban birth control pill Ban Abortion Largely limit social media Subsidize recreational activities like bars and other such drugs After people have accidental kids, they will figure out the food, housing and so on.

> My feeling is that birth rate could be solved in properly authoritarian country. With policies that won't fit to most "western" schemes.

Nazi-Germany had a pretty illiberal and authoritarian family policy which basically reduced women to their role as housewives and mothers by banning married women from the job market and incentivizing having multiple children. They didn't achieve their goal of increasing the birth rate in any significant means. Their family policy also backfired hard during the war. Because women were not supposed to work and received financial support in the absence of their husbands, women refused to go to work during the hot phase of the war. Note that this was in a time where access to birth control was practically non-existent and access to abortion difficult.

Re: Are We Doomed?

#39
post #29

My feeling is that birth rate could be solved in properly authoritarian country. With policies that won't fit to most "western" schemes. Ban birth control pill Ban Abortion Largely limit social media Subsidize recreational activities like bars and other such drugs After people have accidental kids, they will figure out the food, housing and so on.

China is now encouraging higher birth rates after many years of the one-child policy. But the general consensus is that it hasn’t been very successful, even with the CCP’s authoritarian power. The causes are multi-dimensional and difficult to solve: high living costs, changing social values, and younger generations who no longer want to marry young—or marry at all.

Even North Korea has to encourage women to give birth[0]; the Kim dynasty can’t simply issue an order and shoot anyone who disobeys. It simply doesn’t work that way.

[0]: https://www.voanews.com/a/north-korea-s-kim-calls-for-women-...

Re: Are We Doomed?

#40
post #29

My feeling is that birth rate could be solved in properly authoritarian country. With policies that won't fit to most "western" schemes. Ban birth control pill Ban Abortion Largely limit social media Subsidize recreational activities like bars and other such drugs After people have accidental kids, they will figure out the food, housing and so on.

Banning the pill alone would be sufficient.[0] And you don't even need to ban it entirely, just slightly limiting the supply would be enough. Banning it entirely would double the fertility rate because the pill had cut it in half from 1960-1975 when it was introduced in the US.[1]

[0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Combined_oral_contraceptive_pi...

[1] https://www.macrotrends.net/global-metrics/countries/usa/uni...

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