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Michael Burry a.k.a. "Big Short",discloses $1.1B bet against Nvidia&Palantir

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Re: Michael Burry a.k.a. "Big Short",discloses $1.1B bet against Nvidia&Palantir

#31

Post by darth_avocado »

fragmede wrote: post #19
ambicapter wrote: post #8

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What makes it an (almost) certainty?

Reminder that economist have predicted 9 of the past 7 recessions. General handwavy statements like "there's a bubble" aren't worth paying attention to. Ones with specific timelines attached to it (like the one above, or the article we're commenting on), are worth listening to a bit more, but unless they have the funds to back it up (like Michael Burry has put down here), it's still hot air.

Palantir has a market cap of $400B+ and Nvidia is $5T. This short translates to 0.225% and 0.00374%. This mostly translates to a thesis that the stocks would “probably” go down a bit than a bet that predicts recession.

Re: Michael Burry a.k.a. "Big Short",discloses $1.1B bet against Nvidia&Palantir

#33

Post by sfblah »

The problem with these kinds of bets is the Fed Put. That's the invisible force levitating stocks. I don't really see that changing unless/until the country genuinely enters a debt or currency crisis. The path is unsustainable, but they'll keep it going as long as they possibly can.

Re: Michael Burry a.k.a. "Big Short",discloses $1.1B bet against Nvidia&Palantir

#35

Post by impossiblefork »

piltdownman wrote: post #18
prodigycorp wrote: post #4

Palantir's valuation is far more egregious than Nvidia's. Palantir is Becky (IBM) with the good hair.

You're betting against a middle-east Marshall Plan and AIPAC lobbyists vs. a company that just set up its AI industrial Hub in Europe and has some serious compute-engine hosting cost sticker-shock incoming. As far as I can see, shorting Thiel is shorting Israel at the moment. Don't do it while Trump is in Cabinet and pressuring Tel Aviv to pardon Bibi.

But how would those guys keep the stock price up?

Re: Michael Burry a.k.a. "Big Short",discloses $1.1B bet against Nvidia&Palantir

#37

Post by pksebben »

humanlion87 wrote: post #30
selim17 wrote: post #20

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You can check here: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1649339/000164933925... Is this like what you say?

Not the OP. I agree with what OP is mentioning. As part of the report you have to file the notional value of the underlying stock. Let's assume I buy one put option for palantir at a price of $1/contract ( say for an extremely OTM strike price of $10 ). I have paid a premium of $100. Assuming stock price of palantir is $200, the notional value I have to report is $200*100 = $20k. And not the $100 premium I paid.

This seems to back that up: https://www.sec.gov/files/form13f.pdf

FWIG you can't actually see what premium was paid on an option unless the buyer chooses to disclose that themselves.

Re: Michael Burry a.k.a. "Big Short",discloses $1.1B bet against Nvidia&Palantir

#38

Post by jkelleyrtp »

fragmede wrote: post #19
ambicapter wrote: post #8

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What makes it an (almost) certainty?

Reminder that economist have predicted 9 of the past 7 recessions. General handwavy statements like "there's a bubble" aren't worth paying attention to. Ones with specific timelines attached to it (like the one above, or the article we're commenting on), are worth listening to a bit more, but unless they have the funds to back it up (like Michael Burry has put down here), it's still hot air.

It seems like the economy is on a “K” shaped flywheel. How much worse can the economy get for the regular worker before the systems just pops? We’ve put so much speculation into an AI/tech salvation that seems premature, especially when you look at ROI vs depreciation timelines.

I’m not sure what timeline to place on that but there has to be a floor for how bad it can get for the regular man.

Shit is just expensive. Young people can’t buy houses, good jobs are drying up, and inflation isn’t stopping.

Re: Michael Burry a.k.a. "Big Short",discloses $1.1B bet against Nvidia&Palantir

#40

Post by embedding-shape »

bgirard wrote: post #7
dh2022 wrote: post #3

Thanks for sharing. Michael Bury also shorted S&P 500 in Sep 2023 and closed his position in Nov 2023 for a nice payoff… he seems to know what he is doing.

I'm legitimately curious what his overall performance is. Are those just cherry picked trades?

As far as I can tell, he been doing lots of puts and "winning" maybe 1/8 of the ones I've known about, so pretty hit and miss history so far.
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