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Is Sora the beginning of the end for OpenAI?

calnewport.com

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Re: Is Sora the beginning of the end for OpenAI?

#31

Post by renewiltord »

Sohcahtoa82 wrote: post #11

I'm more concerned about Sora (and video-generating AI in general) being the final pour that cements us into our post-truth world. People will be swayed by AI-generated videos while also being convinced real videos are AI. I'm kinda terrified of the future of politics.

This is a non-concern. You can see videos where a specific thing happens where people will describe a different thing happening. Not some eyewitness off memory. You can look at a video and there will be people on Reddit saying stuff that didn’t happen.

Then you can see any conversation about the video will be even more divorced from reality.

None of this requires video manipulation.

The majority of people are idiots on a grand scale. Just search any social media for PEMDAS and you will find hordes of people debating the value of 2 + 3 / 5 on all sorts of grounds. “It’s definitely 1. 2+3 =5 then by 5 is 1” stuff like that.

Re: Is Sora the beginning of the end for OpenAI?

#32

Post by gilfoy »

mentalgear wrote: post #13

The fact that OpenAI is pushing Sora, and Altman now even hinting at introducing "erotic roleplay"[0] makes it obvious: openAI has stopped being a real AI research lab. Now, they’re just another desperate player in a no-moat market, scrambling to become the primary platform of this hype era and imprison users onto their platform, just like Microsoft and Facebook did before in the PC and social era. [0] https://www.40…

Why is it one or the other? They have enough money to do both.

Re: Is Sora the beginning of the end for OpenAI?

#33

Post by hombre_fatal »

Sohcahtoa82 wrote: post #11

I'm more concerned about Sora (and video-generating AI in general) being the final pour that cements us into our post-truth world. People will be swayed by AI-generated videos while also being convinced real videos are AI. I'm kinda terrified of the future of politics.

The problem is that we're already post truth.

Just consider how a screenshot of a tweet or made-up headline already spreads like a wildfire: https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1980221072512635117

Sora involves far more work than what is required to spread misinfo.

Finally, people don't really care about the truth. They care about things that confirm their world view, or comfortable things. Or they dismiss things that are inconvenient for their tribe and focus on things that are inconvenient for other tribes.

Re: Is Sora the beginning of the end for OpenAI?

#34

Post by schnable »

OpenAI is making a wild number of product plays at once, trying to leverage the value of the frontier model, brand value, and massive number of eyeballs they own. Sora is just one of many. Some will fail and maybe some will succeed.

It seems true that no company has used frontier models to create a product with business value commensurate with the cost it takes to train and run them. That what OpenAI is trying to do with Sora, and with Codex, Apps, "Agent" flows, etc. I don't think there's more to read into it than that.

Re: Is Sora the beginning of the end for OpenAI?

#35

Post by truelson »

I love Cal. I really, really take his thoughts on many things to heart for well over a decade now.

I think he's being a bit harsh here. And there are some confounding factors why.

Yes, we have an AI bubble. Yes there's been a ton of hype that can't be met with reality in the short term. That's normal for large changes (and this is a large technological change). OpenAI may have some rough days ahead of it soon, but just like the internet, there's still a lot of signal here and a lot of work to still be done. Going through Suna+Sora videos just last night was still absoutely magical. There's still so much here.

But, OpenAI is also becoming, to use a Ben Thompson term, an aggregator. If it's where you go to solve many problems, advertising and more is a natural fit. It's not certain who comes out on top of the space (or if it can be shared), but there are huge rewards coming in future years, even after a bubble has popped.

Cal is having a very strong reaction here. I value it, but I wish it was more nuanced.

Re: Is Sora the beginning of the end for OpenAI?

#37

Post by sixothree »

mentalgear wrote: post #13

The fact that OpenAI is pushing Sora, and Altman now even hinting at introducing "erotic roleplay"[0] makes it obvious: openAI has stopped being a real AI research lab. Now, they’re just another desperate player in a no-moat market, scrambling to become the primary platform of this hype era and imprison users onto their platform, just like Microsoft and Facebook did before in the PC and social era. [0] https://www.40…

The amount of animal abuse videos I've seen is a bit disturbing. It only demonstrates how careless they have been, possibly intentionally. I know people on HN have been describing the various reasons why OpenAI has not been a good player, but seeing it first-hand is visceral in a way that makes me concerned about them as a company.

Re: Is Sora the beginning of the end for OpenAI?

#38

Post by OJFord »

Sohcahtoa82 wrote: post #11

I'm more concerned about Sora (and video-generating AI in general) being the final pour that cements us into our post-truth world. People will be swayed by AI-generated videos while also being convinced real videos are AI. I'm kinda terrified of the future of politics.

It just makes trusted/verified sources more important, and more people to care about it. I wouldn't be terrified for politics so much as the raised barrier to entry (and concentration) of the press - people will pay attention to the BBC, Guardian, Times, but not (even less so) independentjourno.com; those sources will be more sceptical of whistleblowers and freelance investigative contributions, etc.

Re: Is Sora the beginning of the end for OpenAI?

#39

Post by Teever »

bonoboTP wrote: post #21
Sohcahtoa82 wrote: post #11

I'm more concerned about Sora (and video-generating AI in general) being the final pour that cements us into our post-truth world. People will be swayed by AI-generated videos while also being convinced real videos are AI. I'm kinda terrified of the future of politics.

We will adjust. And guess what, before photography, people managed somehow. People gossiped all sorts of stuff, spread malicious runors and you had to guess what's a lie and what's not. The way people dealt with it was witness testimony and physical evidence.

Of course we will adjust. That is a truism that is besides the point.

What matters is how many people will suffer during this adjustment period.

How many Rwandan genocides will happen because of this technology? How many lynchings or witch burnings?

Re: Is Sora the beginning of the end for OpenAI?

#40

Post by mola »

bonoboTP wrote: post #21
Sohcahtoa82 wrote: post #11

I'm more concerned about Sora (and video-generating AI in general) being the final pour that cements us into our post-truth world. People will be swayed by AI-generated videos while also being convinced real videos are AI. I'm kinda terrified of the future of politics.

We will adjust. And guess what, before photography, people managed somehow. People gossiped all sorts of stuff, spread malicious runors and you had to guess what's a lie and what's not. The way people dealt with it was witness testimony and physical evidence.

Yes, that adjustment could well be monarchy.

I can't see how functioning democracy can survive without truth as shared grounds of discussion.

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