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How much Anthropic and Cursor spend on Amazon Web Services

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Re: How much Anthropic and Cursor spend on Amazon Web Services

#31

Post by infecto »

LetsGetTechnicl wrote: post #24
Kuinox wrote: post #14

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I could find an ARR for Cursor of $500M. Why do they they in this article that Cursor is loosing with this spending number ?

Ed's mentioned ARR in previous articles and it's not a "generally accepted accounting principle". They cherry pick the highest monthly revenue number and multiply that by 12, but that's not their actual annual revenue.

Eh, when you have a company that’s growing, picking the highest and annualizing it is sensible. If we had a mature company with highly seasonal revenue it would be dishonest.

Re: How much Anthropic and Cursor spend on Amazon Web Services

#33

Post by yomismoaqui »

onlyrealcuzzo wrote: post #12
daft_pink wrote: post #3

I think this is a minor speed bump and VC’s believe that cost of inference will decrease over time and this is a gold rush to grab market share while cost of inference declines. I don’t think they got it right and the market share and usage grew faster than inference dropped, but inference costs will clearly drop and these companies will eventually be very profitable. Reality is that startups like this assume moore’s…

Isn't the consensus that the MOE architecture and other optimizations in the newest gen models (GPT-5, Gemini 3.0 to come, etc) will reduce inference costs by 50-75% already?

Sounds interesting, do you have some links with more info about this?

Thanks!

Re: How much Anthropic and Cursor spend on Amazon Web Services

#34

Post by KallDrexx »

ctoth wrote: post #22
x0x0 wrote: post #18

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> inference costs will clearly drop They haven't though. On two fronts: 1, the soa models have been pretty constantly priced, and everyone wants the soa models. Likely the only way costs drop is the models get so good that people are like hey, I'm fine with a less useful answer (which is still good enough) and that seems, right now, like a bad bet. and 2 - we use a lot more tokens now. No more pasting Q&A into a site…

You're describing increased spending while calling it increased cost. These aren't the same thing. A task that cost me $5 to accomplish with GPT-4 last year might cost $1 with Sonnet today, even though I'm now spending $100/month total on AI instead of $20 because I'm doing 100x more tasks. The cost per task dropped 80%. My spending went up 5x. Both statements are true. Here's an analogy you may understand: https://c…

Fwiw that's not necessarily true, because if Sonnet ends up using reasoning, then you are using more tokens than GPT-4 would have used for the same task. Same with GPT-5 since it will decide (using an LLM) if it should use the thinking model for it (and you don't have as much control over it).

Re: How much Anthropic and Cursor spend on Amazon Web Services

#35

Post by swyx »

tinyhouse wrote: post #27
haberdasher wrote: post #11

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Amazon owns 15-19% of Anthropic. So yes and no.

No way their share is so high. Where did you get these numbers from?

it's a number 2 years out of date. they invested 8b and ant is now worth 183b.

Re: How much Anthropic and Cursor spend on Amazon Web Services

#37

Post by disgruntledphd2 »

ai-x wrote: post #32

Just a reminder, Ed Zitron is neither an AI researcher, nor an Engineer, nor a Financial Analyst, nor an Economist nor an Insider and has ZERO clue in multiple dimensions (technology, investing, unit economics, growth, TAM) to analyze any of this

Correct. And yet, he's provided some of the most level headed takes on the current LLM boom, to the point where FT Alphaville link to his analysis of the economics.

Re: How much Anthropic and Cursor spend on Amazon Web Services

#38

Post by infecto »

x0x0 wrote: post #18
daft_pink wrote: post #3

I think this is a minor speed bump and VC’s believe that cost of inference will decrease over time and this is a gold rush to grab market share while cost of inference declines. I don’t think they got it right and the market share and usage grew faster than inference dropped, but inference costs will clearly drop and these companies will eventually be very profitable. Reality is that startups like this assume moore’s…

> inference costs will clearly drop They haven't though. On two fronts: 1, the soa models have been pretty constantly priced, and everyone wants the soa models. Likely the only way costs drop is the models get so good that people are like hey, I'm fine with a less useful answer (which is still good enough) and that seems, right now, like a bad bet. and 2 - we use a lot more tokens now. No more pasting Q&A into a site…

Anecdote of 1. Costs for openai on a per token basis have absolutely dropped and that accounts for new sota models over time. I think by now we can all agree that inference costs from providers are largely at or above breakeven. So more tokens is a good problem to have.

Re: How much Anthropic and Cursor spend on Amazon Web Services

#39

Post by spyckie2 »

Ai can both be a bubble and also the greatest economic value add of this generation at the same time. It doesn’t have to be either or.

All bubbles (dot com, housing, tech, crypto, etc) have a lot of losers and a few big winners.

That is less a reflection on the market of the bubble and more a reflection of the number, skill and risk taking of the prospectors.

Re: How much Anthropic and Cursor spend on Amazon Web Services

#40

Post by jayd16 »

rdtsc wrote: post #9

> through September, Anthropic has spent more than 100% of its estimated revenue (based on reporting in the last year) on Amazon Web Services, spending $2.66 billion on compute on an estimated $2.55 billion in revenue. Well I don't have to scratch my head any longer and wonder why Amazon hasn't jumped on the AI bandwagon with their own Gemini or whatever. They are sitting pretty and selling shovels and pickaxes to th…

They actually do have Alexa.
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