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Bitcoin Whale Shorted $1.1B Right Before Tariffs

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Re: Bitcoin Whale Shorted $1.1B Right Before Tariffs

#32
I'm grateful to those tracking and publishing this information, but as smoking guns go, the evidence doesn't seem particularly compelling.

China announced their rare-earth restrictions on 10/9. Trump predictably over-reacts with tariffs on 10/10. The trader had plenty of reason to expect new tariffs, and some reason to expect Bitcoin to go down.

If I were corrupt, I'd always make sure there was some justifying event in advance of my trade, even if I knew there was to be some precipitating event for a market swing. Plausible deniability.

Re: Bitcoin Whale Shorted $1.1B Right Before Tariffs

#33

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It is genuinely amazing how fast it feels like it happened. The whole monica lewisnky thing happened because there was an investigation into Clinton making maybe 100k off a partnership with a guy who later got arrested. Granted that was over 20 years ago now, but like, hillarys emails???

[flagged]

Meanwhile, everything DOGE did was *orders of magnitude* worse. Republicans? Not a peep.

Re: Bitcoin Whale Shorted $1.1B Right Before Tariffs

#34

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why would you expect anything with BTC?

Hating on Bitcoin was cool in 2015. It’s proven to be a reliable store of value asset, to the point that central banks are considering reserves on it. Bitcoin maybe as useless as gold, but that doesn’t make it more or less valuable.

> to the point that central banks are considering reserves on it.

Specifically, central banks run by scammers and imbeciles. Nobody with any brains is going to put their reserves in something whose only value comes from the existence of greater fools and has the downside of propping up the North Korean government.

Re: Bitcoin Whale Shorted $1.1B Right Before Tariffs

#35

I'm confused: why would you short BTC if you knew in advance that additional tariffs would be announced? Wouldn't you expect that to increase the dollar value of BTC due to depreciation of the dollar?

How do tariffs depreciate the dollar? Do you just mean in the “prices go up” sense? I’m not trying to nitpick, just wondering if there is some mechanism I don’t know about that actually devalues the dollar in a fundamental way. Like if there is a chicken flu and the price of eggs skyrockets, I wouldn’t say that depreciates the dollar, for example, in strict terms, prices have just risen.

Re: Bitcoin Whale Shorted $1.1B Right Before Tariffs

#36

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why would you expect anything with BTC?

Hating on Bitcoin was cool in 2015. It’s proven to be a reliable store of value asset, to the point that central banks are considering reserves on it. Bitcoin maybe as useless as gold, but that doesn’t make it more or less valuable.

Tangential, but I find it strange how bank “reserve” means something entirely different from what it used to mean.

Re: Bitcoin Whale Shorted $1.1B Right Before Tariffs

#38
post #6

Earlier quoted context omitted.

they would have profited anyway. be it stocks or forex. using btc only makes it public i guess?

corruption is one thing, I would call it merely unfair (unfortunately not illegal) to trade with inside information or by pulling strings. Crashing the dollar for personal gain, tho, it's practically treason.

Not practically - crashing the dollar on purpose is actually treason.

Re: Bitcoin Whale Shorted $1.1B Right Before Tariffs

#39

I'm confused: why would you short BTC if you knew in advance that additional tariffs would be announced? Wouldn't you expect that to increase the dollar value of BTC due to depreciation of the dollar?

How do tariffs depreciate the dollar? Do you just mean in the “prices go up” sense? I’m not trying to nitpick, just wondering if there is some mechanism I don’t know about that actually devalues the dollar in a fundamental way. Like if there is a chicken flu and the price of eggs skyrockets, I wouldn’t say that depreciates the dollar, for example, in strict terms, prices have just risen.

Prices going up is dollar devaluation. One doesn't cause the other - they're already two different words for the same thing.

If potato prices rise but soybean prices fall, then you can say potatoes got more expensive, soybeans got cheaper, and the dollar is worth the same. But if prices go up all across the economy in general, that is dollar devaluation.

Re: Bitcoin Whale Shorted $1.1B Right Before Tariffs

#40
post #39

Earlier quoted context omitted.

How do tariffs depreciate the dollar? Do you just mean in the “prices go up” sense? I’m not trying to nitpick, just wondering if there is some mechanism I don’t know about that actually devalues the dollar in a fundamental way. Like if there is a chicken flu and the price of eggs skyrockets, I wouldn’t say that depreciates the dollar, for example, in strict terms, prices have just risen.

Prices going up is dollar devaluation. One doesn't cause the other - they're already two different words for the same thing. If potato prices rise but soybean prices fall, then you can say potatoes got more expensive, soybeans got cheaper, and the dollar is worth the same. But if prices go up all across the economy in general, that is dollar devaluation.

But tariffs don’t cause prices to go up all across the economy in general. Domestic products will get more expensive in the short term due to a positive demand discontinuity, but they will fall again in the medium term as domestic producers regain access to the large swaths of the market they lost access to under the old global free market trade policy. If the tariffs continue for a long time (not guaranteed) then domestic labor compensation will also recover (perhaps not fully due to automation, but automation on the high volume stuff would free up workers to work on smaller volume products).

Side question - would you consider the converse, globalization, to be a deflationary force?

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