Silver trades to $50 an ounce

> Why is this?

Massive gilded-age-levels of wealth inequality that will be politically impossible to address (neither US political party has a unified will to do it due to donor capture, and only the one with less will to do it has any national power currently) until there is a substantial economic crash.

I feel like something broke during COVID. My only thought is people want their money to make money (I mean, I know I do), and apps like Robinhood normalized speculation and gambling as "saving your money" and "stocks always go up."

We've had an unprecedentedly long period of growth that a lot of the younger "investors" have known nothing but. So this will be their first real bubble burst.

My little brother-in-law is only 27, he was too young to really remember 2007-10, and he started gable-vesting during lockdown, and when you turn $10 into $120 on some meme stock, you feel like you are up, even though the 50 other bets lost money.

Basically when enough people know nothing other than "stonks go up" and "apes strong together" you can keep pumping, but eventually the dump comes for all of us.

for the past century, the global economy has been a machine for turning fossil fuel into money. carbon output was very directly correlated with growth. that hasn't really changed yet but the writing is on the wall.

also, manufacturing and shipping just fell off a cliff.

Wealth is becoming more and more concentrated at the top end of the distribution. Folks at the high end have a lower marginal propensity to consume, and thus invest more in assets. This increase in demand causes all assets to rise.

"Asked a friend":

Key Themes & Arguments:

   1.  Divergent market signals
   •   Gold has surged (~50 %+ over the past year) and the dollar has weakened, suggesting investor fears that governments may resort to inflation (i.e. currency debasement) to ease debt burdens.   
   •   But bond markets—especially through long-term inflation expectations embedded in yields and inflation swaps—are relatively steady and show little sign of expecting runaway inflation.

   2.  Why the disconnect?
   •   The article posits that different investor motivations may be in play. Gold’s rally might be driven not purely by inflation fears, but by geopolitical risk, central bank reserve behavior, and rate cuts/expectations of falling yields.   
   •   Meanwhile, bond investors appear anchored by beliefs in central bank discipline, moderate inflation, and weak job growth, which limit inflationary pressure in the view of bond markets.

   3.  Longer-term concerns still loom
   •   Over the long haul, the mismatch between rising debts, low taxation, and persistent spending may force a reckoning: either austerity or inflation. The article suggests many politicians will prefer the inflation route.   
   •   But for now, that outcome seems distant. Bond markets are not pricing in that scenario imminently.

   4.  Possible scenarios ahead
   •   If economic growth maintains momentum and the recent softening in jobs is transitory, the Fed might reverse course—undoing rate cuts or raising rates. That could challenge gold, stocks, and bonds alike.   
   •   Only if policymakers allow inflation to run unchecked (or effectively “print money”) would the “debasement trade” fully materialize.