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Tipping point in Gulf Stream may be reached as early as mid-century

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Re: Tipping point in Gulf Stream may be reached as early as mid-century

#31

Post by stetrain »

deadbabe wrote: post #29
marcyb5st wrote: post #16

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I believe southern European countries won't be as screwed. The Mediterranean sea has enough thermal mass to keep things Ok. North of the Alps screwed big time. However, the lack of rainfall could be the real killer. As the warm humid air would stops coming it's not clear if the precipitations would be enough to sustain crops in Mediterranean countries. Also, the US east cost and the Caribbean countries would be fucke…

Aren’t most crops watered via irrigation? Why is precipitation necessary

The water used for irrigation is usually replenished by precipitation.

Re: Tipping point in Gulf Stream may be reached as early as mid-century

#32

Post by didibus »

timr wrote: post #24

Title is clickbait. This is based on 25+ different models, the AMOC is not the Gulf Stream, the authors admit there’s a great deal of uncertainty, and the confidence intervals extend from 2023 to 2076 for the high emission scenario. Moreover, per the authors: > If the AMOC starts to collapse, it takes more than 100 years to reach a substantially weaker state. Better title would be “Simulations of Atlantic Meridonal C…

Agree, that said, it's still a little worrisome.

These simulations are the best we have to predict the future, and even if it's 2076, once it happens, it's going to be a huge deal.

Hard to think we should just YOLO and take a gamble models were wrong and all will be fine for centuries more.

Re: Tipping point in Gulf Stream may be reached as early as mid-century

#33

Post by api »

barbazoo wrote: post #18
rozap wrote: post #9

Earlier quoted context omitted.

And presumably there's another side of it too? Like all that hot air would have to be somewhere else if not Western Europe. That somewhere else would also have a bad time, just in the opposite direction. Very bleak.

Crazy in my mind to think about the system moving unimaginable amounts of energy around the planet and now we're changing it on a time scale shorter than what the planet usually sees. Reminds me of what I read about the Younger Dryas and how temperatures changed within centuries, if not decades.

I've heard some speculation that rapid climate change at that time could be the origin of global flood myths in so many cultures. Imagine you're just minding your own business and a glacial dam breaks. As far as you're concerned, you just experienced a global flood.

Re: Tipping point in Gulf Stream may be reached as early as mid-century

#34

Post by andrewmutz »

timr wrote: post #24

Title is clickbait. This is based on 25+ different models, the AMOC is not the Gulf Stream, the authors admit there’s a great deal of uncertainty, and the confidence intervals extend from 2023 to 2076 for the high emission scenario. Moreover, per the authors: > If the AMOC starts to collapse, it takes more than 100 years to reach a substantially weaker state. Better title would be “Simulations of Atlantic Meridonal C…

Great deal of uncertainty? But no one clicks on a link like that.

Re: Tipping point in Gulf Stream may be reached as early as mid-century

#35

Post by nemo44x »

octaane wrote: post #6

I cannot overemphasize how epochal of a crisis this would be for human civilization - the gulf stream is pretty much the only thing keeping northern europe (The UK, Denmark, Finland, Iceland, Norway, Sweden, Finland, parts of germany, the Netherlands, etc) habitable by current standards. Basically, the gulf stream is a conveyor belt that grabs nice warm water from southern latitudes (carribean, southeast atlantic oce…

It's a good thing there's a near 0% chance of it actually happening.

Re: Tipping point in Gulf Stream may be reached as early as mid-century

#36

Post by kergonath »

WinstonSmith84 wrote: post #13

Okay that's maybe dramatic, but on another hand, that would be quite fascinating to experience. Maybe, for those of us living long enough, we are going to witness a net migration not from Africa to Europe, but from Europe to elsewhere, anywhere. There is enough place on Earth for humans to resettle and it's likely that other places will become more hospitable, while other places will become less, as the climate shift…

> Maybe the middle east will become just warm and hot, instead of extremely hot as it's currently

I don’t want to break your fantasies, but models predict the Middle East to be come more hot and hostile, not less.

Re: Tipping point in Gulf Stream may be reached as early as mid-century

#38

Post by baq »

api wrote: post #33
barbazoo wrote: post #18

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Crazy in my mind to think about the system moving unimaginable amounts of energy around the planet and now we're changing it on a time scale shorter than what the planet usually sees. Reminds me of what I read about the Younger Dryas and how temperatures changed within centuries, if not decades.

I've heard some speculation that rapid climate change at that time could be the origin of global flood myths in so many cultures. Imagine you're just minding your own business and a glacial dam breaks. As far as you're concerned, you just experienced a global flood.

Melting so much ice in such a short time without some kind of a dam made of not-ice is physically unimaginable. Water has soooo much heat capacity it'd take hundreds of years unless we're talking about a yellowstone or deccan traps eruption under the south pole or something (haven't done the math, but I'm not sure if it'd be enough).

Re: Tipping point in Gulf Stream may be reached as early as mid-century

#39

Post by baq »

timr wrote: post #24

Title is clickbait. This is based on 25+ different models, the AMOC is not the Gulf Stream, the authors admit there’s a great deal of uncertainty, and the confidence intervals extend from 2023 to 2076 for the high emission scenario. Moreover, per the authors: > If the AMOC starts to collapse, it takes more than 100 years to reach a substantially weaker state. Better title would be “Simulations of Atlantic Meridonal C…

everyone who has young children can expect either them (high probability) or grandchildren (basically certain) to live through that event. not sure if reaching the equilibrium is required to be seriously affected.

Re: Tipping point in Gulf Stream may be reached as early as mid-century

#40

Post by hvb2 »

deadbabe wrote: post #29
marcyb5st wrote: post #16

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I believe southern European countries won't be as screwed. The Mediterranean sea has enough thermal mass to keep things Ok. North of the Alps screwed big time. However, the lack of rainfall could be the real killer. As the warm humid air would stops coming it's not clear if the precipitations would be enough to sustain crops in Mediterranean countries. Also, the US east cost and the Caribbean countries would be fucke…

Aren’t most crops watered via irrigation? Why is precipitation necessary

Because irrigation needs fresh water. Fresh water is brought inland by precipitation. No precipitation no rivers to irrigate from after the glaciers that might also feed them run out
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