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AI Is Wrecking Young Americans' Job Prospects

wsj.com

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Re: AI Is Wrecking Young Americans' Job Prospects

#31

Post by ch4s3 »

xpe wrote: post #9

Who knows of a good written critique of this paper written by experts in causal analysis?

I'm only half way through the paper but it looks like from their numbers junior level software engineering employment has returned to 2021 levels and is declining towards perhaps 2019 levels. I can't help but wonder if they have made a mistake in controlling for the hiring boom around the pandemic shift to eCommerce. It looks like they tried to eliminate factors like that, but I'm not deep enough into the study yet.

Re: AI Is Wrecking Young Americans' Job Prospects

#32

Post by ImPostingOnHN »

Insanity wrote: post #16
bobosha wrote: post #15

IMO AI is going eat most jobs - including the experienced ones - it's just a matter of time. There is no sugar coating this unfortunately.

Given a long enough timeframe, I think you're right. But I don't think that's a 'near future' state, but probably a 'in a few decades' state. More generally, I believe that eventually we'll reach a 'post-work society' ( https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Post-work_society ). And that'll be interesting for humanity, as we derive at least some identity from the work we're doing.

Interesting indeed. Depending on the country you're in, "post work" will mean your value to the current violent, ruling regime is 0 or negative, with predictable consequences.

Luckily for the regime, the killbots are already here, AI-powered, and under their control.

Re: AI Is Wrecking Young Americans' Job Prospects

#33

Post by spacephysics »

mlinhares wrote: post #17
xpe wrote: post #12

How many people are just assuming the study is true or false based on what you already think is the case? Better instead to use our collective brain power for something more productive. Such as digging into the various possible causal factors and understanding if the paper properly addresses and disentangles them.

Maybe, just maybe, the reason is that the economy is moving towards the dumps and nobody is hiring or firing, because they know the future is gloomy. But it makes it much nicer to say its AI that's stealing jobs to create even more hype.

Especially given how the gov stats for unemployment rate and CPI have been changed over the years.

Example, if you dig into who we technically consider unemployed in that number, you’ll laugh.

Let’s say after 6 months of emails and ghost listings you take a break, you’re now considered “not in the labor force” which is the same category as retirees and full-time students. So that “improves” the unemployment rate

Not a hot take, but I think we’ve been in a recession/massive slowdown for much longer than the gov data shows

Willing to bet hedge funds have their own calculations of these metrics they keep secret as a market edge

Re: AI Is Wrecking Young Americans' Job Prospects

#34

Post by SketchySeaBeast »

Insanity wrote: post #16
bobosha wrote: post #15

IMO AI is going eat most jobs - including the experienced ones - it's just a matter of time. There is no sugar coating this unfortunately.

Given a long enough timeframe, I think you're right. But I don't think that's a 'near future' state, but probably a 'in a few decades' state. More generally, I believe that eventually we'll reach a 'post-work society' ( https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Post-work_society ). And that'll be interesting for humanity, as we derive at least some identity from the work we're doing.

Man, I wish I had your optimism. I can see us entering "post-work", but that's only because those who own the means of production no longer require us, and our resulting crises will be much lower on Maslow's Heirarchy of Needs.

Re: AI Is Wrecking Young Americans' Job Prospects

#35

Post by JumpCrisscross »

mikert89 wrote: post #14

all the tech companies are filled to the brim with h1b visa holders working around the clock for average pay. this has nothing to do with ai, and everything to do with importing workers that are desperate to be here, and so work like dogs. fresh college grads are competing with foreign visa holders that have years of experience

> fresh college grads are competing with foreign visa holders that have years of experience

Are there more H1Bs per recent college graduate today than previously?

Re: AI Is Wrecking Young Americans' Job Prospects

#36

Post by mothballed »

JumpCrisscross wrote: post #28
babl-yc wrote: post #25

One crazy stat -- In 2024, 21% of all bachelor's degrees awarded were Computer Science from University of Maryland College Park. It was 3% in 2011. I don't agree with the article that AI is wrecking job prospects. I see it is as companies are just now trending towards running leaner vs hiring every good engineer available during ZIRP. Nonetheless, it's gotta be tough out there for new grads. https://www.usmd.edu/IRIS…

> companies are just now trending towards running leaner vs hiring every good engineer available during ZIRP This sounds more like overproduction of entry-level computer scientists than anything AI or hiring managers are up to.

I suspect it is also universities realizing that (pure) computer science has low demand so they shifted their program to either focus it on more industry-geared education, or dumb-dumbed the grade-inflation (data backs this up) enough the masses had the confidence to do it.

Re: AI Is Wrecking Young Americans' Job Prospects

#37

Post by JumpCrisscross »

BurningFrog wrote: post #29

This will be very interesting. So far in the Industrial Revolution, automating away jobs has been how we've getting richer and richer for centuries. If AI automates away half of all jobs, and this holds we will - after an adjustment period - double GDP and collectively be twice as wealthy! If that actually happens, it solves many currently "unsolvable" societal problems. I'm pretty sure that it does, but the adjustme…

> If AI automates away half of all jobs

This is a big if!

Re: AI Is Wrecking Young Americans' Job Prospects

#38

Post by cpursley »

BurningFrog wrote: post #29

This will be very interesting. So far in the Industrial Revolution, automating away jobs has been how we've getting richer and richer for centuries. If AI automates away half of all jobs, and this holds we will - after an adjustment period - double GDP and collectively be twice as wealthy! If that actually happens, it solves many currently "unsolvable" societal problems. I'm pretty sure that it does, but the adjustme…

Farming mechanization and the loom automated so much that 97% of society used to be agrarian and now it's the opposite (only 3% are farmers in developed societies), and we are much better off despite the growing pains they had. Though, it does make me nervous how fast AI automation is hitting.

Re: AI Is Wrecking Young Americans' Job Prospects

#40

Post by JumpCrisscross »

spacephysics wrote: post #33
mlinhares wrote: post #17

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Maybe, just maybe, the reason is that the economy is moving towards the dumps and nobody is hiring or firing, because they know the future is gloomy. But it makes it much nicer to say its AI that's stealing jobs to create even more hype.

Especially given how the gov stats for unemployment rate and CPI have been changed over the years. Example, if you dig into who we technically consider unemployed in that number, you’ll laugh. Let’s say after 6 months of emails and ghost listings you take a break, you’re now considered “not in the labor force” which is the same category as retirees and full-time students. So that “improves” the unemployment rate Not…

> that number

Anyone referring to unemployment data in the singular has not dug into the numbers.

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