After the crash, tech "industry leaders" will struggle to explain why/how they were conned into believing that intelligence was a simple database function with some probability and statistics sprinkled on top.
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Say farewell to the AI bubble, and get ready for the crash
31–40 of 110 posts
Re: Say farewell to the AI bubble, and get ready for the crash
#32The author isn't exactly a thought leader in the space, or really any space for that matter. Opinion worth nothing.
Is Sam Altman a thought leader?
Re: Say farewell to the AI bubble, and get ready for the crash
#33The author isn't exactly a thought leader in the space, or really any space for that matter. Opinion worth nothing.
I've never met a "thought leader" whose opinion was worth anything.
"Thought leader" isn't an actual title (or at least it shouldn't be). In my mind, its simply someone who you recognize as having the expertise worth paying attention to.
Re: Say farewell to the AI bubble, and get ready for the crash
#34Meh. Crashes come when there was no real business value. I use AI all day and I’m sure I’m not the only one.
I used the internet every day in 2000. Bubbles happen with useful technologies not because we decide they aren't useful, but because we were over-sold on what they could do before they could do it.
A lot of AI investment right now is hinged on promises of "AGI" that are failing to materialize, and models themselves are seeing diminishing returns as we throw more hardware at them.
Re: Say farewell to the AI bubble, and get ready for the crash
#35Meh. Crashes come when there was no real business value. I use AI all day and I’m sure I’m not the only one.
I also consume all the heavily sibsidized LLM tokens I can find a use for. Great deal for us, the people who funded it? Not so fun.
LLMs also cost what they cost because NVIDIA won't sell you a 5090 upgraded with 80GB RAM for $3000 instead of $2000 (which is overkill in the first place). Yo have to buy a H200 for $40000
Re: Say farewell to the AI bubble, and get ready for the crash
#36The author isn't exactly a thought leader in the space, or really any space for that matter. Opinion worth nothing.
Have bubbles ever been successfully called by thought leaders?
If by "thought leader" you mean domain experts making criticism then yes.
For example, Nouriel Roubini calling out the risks of the 2008 Recession before it happened, Michael Pettis calling out the risks of a real estate balance sheet crisis in China before Evergrande happened, and Arvind Subramanian calling out the risks of a a shadow bank crisis in India before the ILFS collapse in 2018.
For AI/ML, I'd tend to trust Emily Bender, given her background in NLP which itself was what became LLMs originated from.
Re: Say farewell to the AI bubble, and get ready for the crash
#37Meh. Crashes come when there was no real business value. I use AI all day and I’m sure I’m not the only one.
There was a lot of business value during the dotcom boom and we still had a crash. The question is how many AI companies have strong fundamentals and will survive, vs the ones that have weak fundamentals and will die if/when the investment money dries up.
The sad thing about bubbles based on overhyped but nevertheless useful tech is the collateral damage of the pop. Small promising companies that are simply too young to have good fundamentals will go under from the backlash created among investors and potential customers. It’s destruction that could’ve been avoided if we had a more measured and sober society that doesn’t need a new craze every 5 years.
Re: Say farewell to the AI bubble, and get ready for the crash
#38Earlier quoted context omitted.
Have bubbles ever been successfully called by thought leaders?
Yes. Say there are 10000 thought leaders with different thinkings. There's a chance that at least one is right.
Yep. Then they're the lottery winner that gets to go on TV and write a book about it as if it was expertise that led to their prediction.
Re: Say farewell to the AI bubble, and get ready for the crash
#39After the crash, tech "industry leaders" will struggle to explain why/how they were conned into believing that intelligence was a simple database function with some probability and statistics sprinkled on top.
But who's to say humans are any different than simple databases with probability and statistics firing neurons??
/s
Re: Say farewell to the AI bubble, and get ready for the crash
#40Earlier quoted context omitted.
I've never met a "thought leader" whose opinion was worth anything.
"Thought leader" isn't an actual title (or at least it shouldn't be). In my mind, its simply someone who you recognize as having the expertise worth paying attention to.
It’s a title that is given to people to get them to present at junkets, a modern socially and legally acceptable way to bribe people. No one should take them seriously.