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Ex-Google Exec Says "The Idea That AI Will Create New Jobs Is 100% Crap"

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Re: Ex-Google Exec Says "The Idea That AI Will Create New Jobs Is 100% Crap"

#31

Post by robertlagrant »

hearsathought wrote: post #15
janitor77swe wrote: post #12

I don't understand such statement. Automation has already created more job opportunities, why should this be any different? Jobs don't go away, they just transform. And since this AI (whatever that means, nobody really knows) isn't a human-like AGI, it will most certainly not replace humans, but it will automate processes and speed things up. If you're a business that offers 3 services to the public and "AI" could au…

Much of what was automated is physical labor which allowed workers to move into "service/intellectual" jobs. When tractors and dump trucks removed the need for masses of people to move dirt, it didn't create more jobs of moving dirt around since those jobs could also be tackled by more tractors and dump trucks. If AI is what all these "AI evangelicals" claim, then most intellectual jobs would be gone. And it won't cr…

> When tractors and dump trucks removed the need for masses of people to move dirt, it didn't create more jobs of moving dirt around since those jobs could also be tackled by more tractors and dump trucks

It created dump truck driver / maintenance / engineer / safety / fuel supply / parts factoring / etc jobs. I wouldn't say that's an example of creating zero jobs.

Re: Ex-Google Exec Says "The Idea That AI Will Create New Jobs Is 100% Crap"

#33

Post by bombcar »

throwaway29303 wrote: post #13

Can someone, more informed than me, about the job landscape, name these jobs people keep claiming AI is creating? Thank you in advance.

The big new job is "AI slop shit sorter" but we'll find inventive names for it.

Re: Ex-Google Exec Says "The Idea That AI Will Create New Jobs Is 100% Crap"

#34

Post by dev_l1x_be »

stego-tech wrote: post #30

It’s what us doomers have been saying all along: Even if we’re wrong and these LLMs can replace all or most professional jobs, it won’t create new jobs to replace the lost ones because the AI can replace most labor . For a global economy built on consumers spending money on goods and services, this is a death spiral where fewer jobs mean fewer consumers, which weakens demand, which lowers revenues (corporate and tax…

Luckily replacement is not happening in real life scenarios. AI makes us faster, sure, replaces us? I don't see that happening any time soon. This is a pipe dream for Silicon Valley.

Re: Ex-Google Exec Says "The Idea That AI Will Create New Jobs Is 100% Crap"

#35

Post by DiabloD3 »

kelipso wrote: post #28
guywithahat wrote: post #24

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's just basic economics; when something makes the economy more efficient, it doesn't destroy jobs forever, people get new, better jobs in a more efficient economy. Perhaps AI will finally raise the bar so high lower-IQ individuals won't be able to find any meaningful employment, but this has never happened in before and I doubt it'll happen again. I don't think I've seen a respected economist go on a news broadcast…

Yeah, lower IQ people can use AI too...it might even close the gap to the high IQ people depending on their talents, what they learn, what they apply it to, and so on.

So you're saying that members of Congress can finally catch up to the rest of America with technological help? Although that might be true, they're scared of computers. They only recently mastered the fax machine, but can't figure out how to stop the blinking time on their microwave.

Baby steps, I guess.

Re: Ex-Google Exec Says "The Idea That AI Will Create New Jobs Is 100% Crap"

#36

Post by drdec »

Think about what happened when we got advances in agriculture.

We have gone from something like 90% of people employed growing food to something in the single digits (I'm too lazy at the moment to get exact figures, but this is close enough for my point).

Did all those advances in agriculture create jobs? I would say yes and no.

For the specific industry the advances happened in? No, definitely not. There are way fewer jobs in agriculture now.

But what did happen is that people were freed up to do different things. Those jobs were indirectly created by the fact that people did not need to spend so much time growing food. That allowed people to do other things to create value and improve our lives. Without those agriculture advances, we wouldn't have AI right now.

I suspect AI will be similar. We aren't going to have more jobs in the technology section because of AI. But that guy who hears "Code Monkey" for the first time and marvels that someone wrote a song about his life? He won't be a code monkey anymore he will be doing something else. If he's lucky something more personally fulfilling.

Re: Ex-Google Exec Says "The Idea That AI Will Create New Jobs Is 100% Crap"

#37

Post by mnmalst »

stego-tech wrote: post #30

It’s what us doomers have been saying all along: Even if we’re wrong and these LLMs can replace all or most professional jobs, it won’t create new jobs to replace the lost ones because the AI can replace most labor . For a global economy built on consumers spending money on goods and services, this is a death spiral where fewer jobs mean fewer consumers, which weakens demand, which lowers revenues (corporate and tax…

This is exactly how I feel as well and doing so for a while now. I lost all motivation to work, or life in general. I just don't see a good outcome, why care at all.

Re: Ex-Google Exec Says "The Idea That AI Will Create New Jobs Is 100% Crap"

#39

Post by lm28469 »

guywithahat wrote: post #24
throwaway29303 wrote: post #13

Can someone, more informed than me, about the job landscape, name these jobs people keep claiming AI is creating? Thank you in advance.

It's just basic economics; when something makes the economy more efficient, it doesn't destroy jobs forever, people get new, better jobs in a more efficient economy. Perhaps AI will finally raise the bar so high lower-IQ individuals won't be able to find any meaningful employment, but this has never happened in before and I doubt it'll happen again. I don't think I've seen a respected economist go on a news broadcast…

> It's just basic economics

Is it ?

> when something makes the economy more efficient

How does "ai" make "the economy" more efficient exactly ?

> people get new, better jobs

Which law dictate that these jobs are better ?

I don't see people getting better jobs personally, I see a shit load of people pushed into more and more precarious jobs, with less and less workers rights and job security, with stagnating wages despite rise in productivity, &c.

Re: Ex-Google Exec Says "The Idea That AI Will Create New Jobs Is 100% Crap"

#40

Post by stego-tech »

dev_l1x_be wrote: post #34
stego-tech wrote: post #30

It’s what us doomers have been saying all along: Even if we’re wrong and these LLMs can replace all or most professional jobs, it won’t create new jobs to replace the lost ones because the AI can replace most labor . For a global economy built on consumers spending money on goods and services, this is a death spiral where fewer jobs mean fewer consumers, which weakens demand, which lowers revenues (corporate and tax…

Luckily replacement is not happening in real life scenarios. AI makes us faster, sure, replaces us? I don't see that happening any time soon. This is a pipe dream for Silicon Valley.

I mean, I agree with you 100%, but we should still consider the consequences if we’re wrong. That’s something I don’t see from most folks (the concept they might be wrong, and what that looks like if they are). That’s what I was mainly getting at: whether we’re right or wrong, the outcome is still bad because the problem lies with the current systems (motivations, incentives, etc) and not technology itself.
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