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Severe turbulence forces Delta A330 to make emergency landing, 25 injured

theguardian.com

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Re: Severe turbulence forces Delta A330 to make emergency landing, 25 injured

#31

Post by dagmx »

qcnguy wrote: post #30
dagmx wrote: post #8

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Would you like to refute their claim? Climate change causing turbulence increase is well acknowledged https://www.bbc.com/future/article/20240524-severe-turbulenc...

Yeah he's right, Guardian and BBC are garbage. Check the actual data from the people who would know. https://www.ntsb.gov/safety/safety-studies/Documents/SS2101.... Page 34. They have a graph. "After normalizing the data by annual flight hours, there was no obvious trend over time for turbulence-related Part 121 accidents during this [30 year] period." BBC article is citing some academics doing a modeling exercise. T…

That report refers to accidents caused by turbulence not incidents of turbulence though.

Re: Severe turbulence forces Delta A330 to make emergency landing, 25 injured

#32

Post by dagmx »

alexk307 wrote: post #22
dagmx wrote: post #8

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Would you like to refute their claim? Climate change causing turbulence increase is well acknowledged https://www.bbc.com/future/article/20240524-severe-turbulenc...

That paper has nothing to do with the incident in question. You're referencing a BBC article that references a paper stating that Clear Air Turbulence is getting worse [1] > Turbulence is unpleasant to fly through in an aircraft. Strong turbulence can even injure air passengers and flight attendants. An invisible form called clear-air turbulence But in the incident in question, the plane flew directly through a conve…

Ah fair call out about it being a convective storm, but those have even more evidence of worsening relative to climate change.

Re: Severe turbulence forces Delta A330 to make emergency landing, 25 injured

#33

Post by genewitch »

dagmx wrote: post #8
the_third_wave wrote: post #6

...and as if on queue the narrative around climate "crisis" is woven into an article about a plane experiencing turbulence: experts say the issue is getting worse in an era of climate crisis . Do publications like the Guardian have narrative quotas they need to achieve?

Would you like to refute their claim? Climate change causing turbulence increase is well acknowledged https://www.bbc.com/future/article/20240524-severe-turbulenc...

if you actually read the cited study it boils down to "we plugged in numbers and these neat heatmaps came out" and if you look at the dates it's 1979 and 2020 (in the heatmaps) and i wonder how much of that is actual location accuracy. i notice the word "accuracy" isn't in the study. that is, there were both less flights and less accuracy of actual location in 1979 (no GPS, etc); and more flights and actually accurate location information "today". It explains the heatmap differences without having to model climate at all. It would be more interesting if there was a similar, zoomed map over some coastal route during daytime for the two years where the pilots knew exactly where they were at nearly all times.

it's a fresh "model" and if you've used an LLM you know how useful models are; and the sorts of models used in these studies are about 1 billionth the size.

Further, their own dataset shows massive areas with decreased turbulence. I guess the sun and CO2 don't work there?

ya, HN, i know.

Re: Severe turbulence forces Delta A330 to make emergency landing, 25 injured

#34

Post by genewitch »

dagmx wrote: post #31
qcnguy wrote: post #30

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yeah he's right, Guardian and BBC are garbage. Check the actual data from the people who would know. https://www.ntsb.gov/safety/safety-studies/Documents/SS2101.... Page 34. They have a graph. "After normalizing the data by annual flight hours, there was no obvious trend over time for turbulence-related Part 121 accidents during this [30 year] period." BBC article is citing some academics doing a modeling exercise. T…

That report refers to accidents caused by turbulence not incidents of turbulence though.

the "accident" refers to title 14 part 121 of the CFR, where an accident is after disembark with the intent to fly and before landing where a person is "seriously injured or killed" per 49 CFR section 830.2 (https://www.ecfr.gov/current/title-49/subtitle-B/chapter-VII...); and it's any injury where hospitalization is required for more than 48 hours, or a fracture of any bone except simple fractures of fingers, toes, nose.

it does not mean "crash", although a crash would be included. Specifically, bouncing off the ceiling and fracturing your arm or whatever would count as an accident per the definition.

it's completely valid as a refutation of the bbc article.

Re: Severe turbulence forces Delta A330 to make emergency landing, 25 injured

#35

Post by dagmx »

genewitch wrote: post #33
dagmx wrote: post #8

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Would you like to refute their claim? Climate change causing turbulence increase is well acknowledged https://www.bbc.com/future/article/20240524-severe-turbulenc...

if you actually read the cited study it boils down to "we plugged in numbers and these neat heatmaps came out" and if you look at the dates it's 1979 and 2020 (in the heatmaps) and i wonder how much of that is actual location accuracy. i notice the word "accuracy" isn't in the study. that is, there were both less flights and less accuracy of actual location in 1979 (no GPS, etc); and more flights and actually accurat…

Are you seriously comparing a simulation model to an LLM model?

Re: Severe turbulence forces Delta A330 to make emergency landing, 25 injured

#36

Post by amatecha »

cjrp wrote: post #2

Always wear your seatbelt, even in the cruise.

Yeah, I've heard enough stories of people getting hurt on passenger planes from unexpected turbulence that I always have the seatbelt on during the entirety of any flight. Could make the difference between getting a severe injury or not!

Re: Severe turbulence forces Delta A330 to make emergency landing, 25 injured

#37

Post by alexk307 »

dagmx wrote: post #32
alexk307 wrote: post #22

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That paper has nothing to do with the incident in question. You're referencing a BBC article that references a paper stating that Clear Air Turbulence is getting worse [1] > Turbulence is unpleasant to fly through in an aircraft. Strong turbulence can even injure air passengers and flight attendants. An invisible form called clear-air turbulence But in the incident in question, the plane flew directly through a conve…

Ah fair call out about it being a convective storm, but those have even more evidence of worsening relative to climate change.

Not according to the IPCC:

> Climate models consistently project environmental changes that would support an increase in the frequency and intensity of severe thunderstorms that combine tornadoes, hail, and winds (high confidence), but there is low confidence in the details of the projected increase.

The models project it, but there is currently low confidence in the increase.

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