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What's stopping America from going all-in on heat pumps?

climatedrift.substack.com

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Re: What's stopping America from going all-in on heat pumps?

#31

Post by ssuds »

ilamont wrote: post #14

Essays like this filled with AI-generated spew are really irritating. I hope these figures aren't hallucinations, but it jives with my own experience: Ductless systems averaged around $29,000, but quotes ranged from under $20,000 to over $40,000. Ducted systems averaged $38,000, with bids spanning from under $25,000 to over $50,000—an astonishing 100% difference from low to high for both systems. This is a non-starte…

I'm not sure if Joseph used AI in his writing process, but I was one of the folks he interviewed for this piece and I helped proofread it (along with others). So I'd just like to chime in and say that he did put a bunch of effort into writing it, researching it, and fact checking; it's not just AI slop.

Re: What's stopping America from going all-in on heat pumps?

#32

Post by antisthenes »

superkuh wrote: post #18
AaronNewcomer wrote: post #17

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think you’re confusing geothermal systems (ground excavation, drilling, etc) which are not what this article is talking about.

I'm not. The problem with air-source heat pumps is that they don't work when it gets really cold (ie, a typical -15F minnesota average low for months at a time). They freeze up and stop working and cannot provide heat. So for heat pumps to work in the northern parts of the USA (say, Minnesota/Wisconsin/etc) they cannot just be pumping heat from the air. They require geothermal loops. So that's the two problems I desc…

It's not a complex issue at all.

95% of US population are in temperate climate zones.

Saying "it's a complex issue" is the same kind of ignorant self-induced panic as worrying about EV range for a single digit percentage of long trips.

> The follow on is that if you still want a heat pump in the cold parts of the USA you need a ground loop heat pump.

No, you don't. You just need to accept that your payback period on a system will be longer than in a more temperate climate. It might pay back for itself in 7 years instead of 5, for example.

Re: What's stopping America from going all-in on heat pumps?

#33

Post by testing22321 »

theultdev wrote: post #22
testing22321 wrote: post #3

We just got a heat pump in Canada and tore out the natural gas furnace. Massive energy saving - around $3k per year.

How much did the entire heat pump installation cost? I assume in Canada you needed a geo-thermal loop. That runs about $30k avg, you'll break even in 10 years. Investing that money would prove financially better. Even a 2% low-risk investment would net $6,421 in 10 years. Also it seems they have a lifespan of 15-20 years so you have to account for depreciation of the system. It doesn't make much sense to switch, new…

No geothermal loop, heat pump was $10k out of pocket after incentives, on a 10 year interest free loan.

It’s good down to -30C

Re: What's stopping America from going all-in on heat pumps?

#34

Post by theultdev »

testing22321 wrote: post #33
theultdev wrote: post #22

Earlier quoted context omitted.

How much did the entire heat pump installation cost? I assume in Canada you needed a geo-thermal loop. That runs about $30k avg, you'll break even in 10 years. Investing that money would prove financially better. Even a 2% low-risk investment would net $6,421 in 10 years. Also it seems they have a lifespan of 15-20 years so you have to account for depreciation of the system. It doesn't make much sense to switch, new…

No geothermal loop, heat pump was $10k out of pocket after incentives, on a 10 year interest free loan. It’s good down to -30C

damn, what model is it. curious on those stats.

Re: What's stopping America from going all-in on heat pumps?

#35

Post by daft_pink »

Not sure if it’s the fact that I live in the rust belt, but pretty much every provider tried to dissaude me and said they would have to refer me to someone else when I tried to get one quoted last year. They said it’s not an ideal solution for the area, which seems to contradict everyone online that claims heat pumps are awesome.

Re: What's stopping America from going all-in on heat pumps?

#36

Post by jpd25 »

ilamont wrote: post #14

Essays like this filled with AI-generated spew are really irritating. I hope these figures aren't hallucinations, but it jives with my own experience: Ductless systems averaged around $29,000, but quotes ranged from under $20,000 to over $40,000. Ducted systems averaged $38,000, with bids spanning from under $25,000 to over $50,000—an astonishing 100% difference from low to high for both systems. This is a non-starte…

Original author here. Those figures are from a local study done last year by the Laminar Collective (linked to in the piece). They do not account for state or federal rebates/incentives. They're included to demonstrate the wide range of installation costs, which can feel arbitrary to a homeowner and undermine their confidence, thus making it less likely that they will choose to install a heat pump.

Comparing the cost of a heat pump to window AC units is missing the point since, as you're well aware, a heat pump provides both cooling and heating. A homeowner who is considering a heat pump is almost certainly replacing a gas furnace and/or a central AC system. When you factor in the cost of replacing two systems with one, plus higher effiency gains/lower operating costs, and money back on rebates, heat pumps can be cost competitive.

Massachusetts (where this study was done) is still offering generous incentives as well as 0% financing through the Mass Save program.

Re: What's stopping America from going all-in on heat pumps?

#37

Post by jpd25 »

superkuh wrote: post #18
AaronNewcomer wrote: post #17

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think you’re confusing geothermal systems (ground excavation, drilling, etc) which are not what this article is talking about.

I'm not. The problem with air-source heat pumps is that they don't work when it gets really cold (ie, a typical -15F minnesota average low for months at a time). They freeze up and stop working and cannot provide heat. So for heat pumps to work in the northern parts of the USA (say, Minnesota/Wisconsin/etc) they cannot just be pumping heat from the air. They require geothermal loops. So that's the two problems I desc…

The "heat pumps don't work in cold climates" myth has not been true for years. Modern cold-climate systems are rated down to -20F. In some regions, for some households, it may make sense to install a "dual-fuel" or hybrid system that retains the gas/propane/oil furnace for backup. The heat pump switches over to the furnace at a designated temperature threshold. The homeowner gets to keep their FF backup while still reducing carbon footprint by 80-90+%.

Anyone saying "heat pumps don't work in the cold" is perpetuating unfortunate misinformation that will slow the adoption curve.

Re: What's stopping America from going all-in on heat pumps?

#38

Post by jpd25 »

dtgm93 wrote: post #30

More practical to insulate and just paint your siding and roof white than replace your already existing/working AC. Immediate cooling benefits and no loan hanging over you for X years. Most people have not budgeted or saved for any infrastructure improvements though, so either is a hard sell.

No homeowner is going to replace a functioning system. No one is arguing for that. But furnaces and central ACs don't last forever, so when one of them goes, there's an opportunity for the homeowner to consider a more comfortable, efficient, safer, and healthier alternative (that is also better for the planet).

Re: What's stopping America from going all-in on heat pumps?

#39

Post by jpd25 »

daft_pink wrote: post #35

Not sure if it’s the fact that I live in the rust belt, but pretty much every provider tried to dissaude me and said they would have to refer me to someone else when I tried to get one quoted last year. They said it’s not an ideal solution for the area, which seems to contradict everyone online that claims heat pumps are awesome.

Just an assumption here, but it's likely that many of the contractors you spoke to are misinformed and/or have had bad experiences installing them in the past. It has nothing to do with the capabilities of the equipment. Check out "The Current State of HVAC" and the following sections in the research piece for more context on this point. The average HVAC contracting business is simply not in a good position to recommend or install a heat pump system.

Re: What's stopping America from going all-in on heat pumps?

#40

Post by daft_pink »

jpd25 wrote: post #39
daft_pink wrote: post #35

Not sure if it’s the fact that I live in the rust belt, but pretty much every provider tried to dissaude me and said they would have to refer me to someone else when I tried to get one quoted last year. They said it’s not an ideal solution for the area, which seems to contradict everyone online that claims heat pumps are awesome.

Just an assumption here, but it's likely that many of the contractors you spoke to are misinformed and/or have had bad experiences installing them in the past. It has nothing to do with the capabilities of the equipment. Check out "The Current State of HVAC" and the following sections in the research piece for more context on this point. The average HVAC contracting business is simply not in a good position to recomm…

I thought that might be true, but I interviewed 3-4 different companies and asked them all about this and told them I wanted the tax credit and they all told me the same story. My experience essentially parallels the article, but I would add one additional thing.

When you are making repairs on your house over $10k, and you interview the top contractors in your area with great reviews, very few 0 star reviews. They all say this technology is not really practical.

It’s really hard knowing that everyone is having a great experience having their home fixed by these contractors that all advise you not to do something, to turn around and hire someone who is registered as a Daikin reseller and has an unacceptable number of 1 star reviews.

Heat pump companies have to have decent partners in the field willing to sell their product before consumers are really going to risk spending so much money on their product.

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