31–40 of 186 posts
"We had difficulties accessing OpenAI, our data provider." /s
Rumour was that DeepSeek used the outputs of the thinking steps in OpenAI's reasoning model (o1 at the time) to traing DeepSeek's Large Reasoning Model R1.
Earlier quoted context omitted.
The article says this: >June 26 (Reuters) - Chinese AI startup DeepSeek has not yet determined the timing of the release of its R2 model as CEO Liang Wenfeng is not satisfied with its performance, >Over the past several months, DeepSeek's engineers have been working to refine R2 until Liang gives the green light for release, according to The Information. But yes, it is strange how the majority of the article is about…
I am pretty sure that the information has no access to / sources at Deepseek. At most they are basing their article on selective random internet chatter amongst those who follow Chinese ai.
Although I'd like to know the source for the "this is because of chip sanctions" angle. SMIC is claiming they can manufacture at 5nm and a large number of chips at 7nm can get get the same amount of compute of anything Nvidia produces. It wouldn't be market-leading competitive but delaying the release for a few months doesn't change that. I don't really see how DeepSeek production release dates and the chip sanctions could be linked in the small. Unless they're just including that as an aside.
Earlier quoted context omitted.
Your views on this question are going to differ a lot depending on the probability you assign to a conflict with China in the next five years. I feel like that number should be offered up for scrutiny before a discussion on the cost vs benefits of export controls even starts.
> probability you assign to a conflict with China in the next five years. I feel like that number should be offered up for scrutiny before a discussion Might as well talk about the probability of a conflict with South Africa, China might not be the best country to live in nor be country that takes care of its own citizens the best, but they seem non-violent towards other sovereign nations (so far), although of course…
China is peaceful recently, at least since their invasion of Vietnam. But (1) their post-Deng culture is highly militaristic and irredentist, (2) this is the first time in history that they actually can rollback US influence, their previous inability explains the peace rather than lack of will (3) Taiwan from a realist perspective makes too much sense, as the first in the island chain to wedge between Philippines and Japan, and its role in supplying chips to the US.
The lesson we should learn from Russia's invasion of Ukraine is to believe countries when they say they own another country. Not assume the best and design policy around that assumption.
If you want to read some experts on this question, see this: https://warontherocks.com/?s=taiwan
The general consensus seems to be around a 20-25% chance of an invasion of Taiwan within the next 5 years. The remaining debate isn't about whether they want to do it, it's about whether they'll be able to do it and what their calculation will be around those relative capabilities.
Earlier quoted context omitted.
I don't think any of these companies are aiming at long term goal of making money from inference pricing of customers.
> I don't think any of these companies are aiming at long term goal of making money from inference pricing of customers. What is DeepSeek aiming for if not that, which is currently the only thing they offer that cost money? They claim their own inference endpoints has a cost profit margin of 545%, which might be true or not, but the very fact that they mentioned this at all seems to indicate it is of some importance…
Earlier quoted context omitted.
The article says this: >June 26 (Reuters) - Chinese AI startup DeepSeek has not yet determined the timing of the release of its R2 model as CEO Liang Wenfeng is not satisfied with its performance, >Over the past several months, DeepSeek's engineers have been working to refine R2 until Liang gives the green light for release, according to The Information. But yes, it is strange how the majority of the article is about…
I am pretty sure that the information has no access to / sources at Deepseek. At most they are basing their article on selective random internet chatter amongst those who follow Chinese ai.
First, nobody is training on H20s, it's absurd. Then their logic was, because of high inference demand of DeepSeek models there are high demand of H20 chips, and H20s were banned so better not release new model weights now, otherwise people would want H20s harder.
Which is... even more absurd. The reasoning itself doesn't make any sense. And the technical part is just wrong, too. Using H20 to serve DeepSeek V3 / R1 is just SUPER inefficient. Like, R1 is the most anti-H20 model released ever.
The entire thing makes no sense at all and it's a pity that Reuters fall for that bullshit.
Earlier quoted context omitted.
Your views on this question are going to differ a lot depending on the probability you assign to a conflict with China in the next five years. I feel like that number should be offered up for scrutiny before a discussion on the cost vs benefits of export controls even starts.
Are you saying that large-model capabilities would make a substantial difference in a military conflict within the next five years? Because we aren’t seeing any signs of that in, say, the Ukraine war.
My consumer AMD card (7900 XTX) outperforms the 15x more expensive Nvidia server chip (L40S) that I was using.
or
who knows maybe they just chillin watching how west labs burn gpu money, let eval metas shift. then drop r2 when oai/claude trust graph dips a bit
So Nvidia stock is going to crash hard when the Chinese inevitably produce their own competitive chip. Though I’m baffled by the fact they don’t just license and pump out billions of AMD chips. Nvidia is ahead, but not that far ahead. My consumer AMD card (7900 XTX) outperforms the 15x more expensive Nvidia server chip (L40S) that I was using.
Surely it would be cheaper and easier for the CCP to develop their own chipmaking capacity than going to war in the Taiwan strait?
Earlier quoted context omitted.
Your views on this question are going to differ a lot depending on the probability you assign to a conflict with China in the next five years. I feel like that number should be offered up for scrutiny before a discussion on the cost vs benefits of export controls even starts.
I'm not American. Ever since I've been old enough to understand the world, the only country constantly at war everywhere is America. An all-powerful American AI is scarier to me than an open source Chinese one