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America’s incarceration rate is in decline

theatlantic.com

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Re: America’s incarceration rate is in decline

#31

Post by mystified5016 »

casenmgreen wrote: post #25

Freakonomics argued that crime correlates to whether or not abortion is available. If it is not, crime rates are up, and by a lot. If it is, crime rates are down. When you flip from one to the other, takes about 15/20 years for the effect to show up. Rationale is that forcing parents to have their kids when they're not ready for them significantly increases delinquency in young adults. This is apparently the only pos…

I'd wager that the foster system is a huge factor. Poverty is likely the rest.

When you don't give a human resources, they will find a way to take it. When you force humans with no resources to have kids, well...

Re: America’s incarceration rate is in decline

#32

Post by gosub100 »

casenmgreen wrote: post #25

Freakonomics argued that crime correlates to whether or not abortion is available. If it is not, crime rates are up, and by a lot. If it is, crime rates are down. When you flip from one to the other, takes about 15/20 years for the effect to show up. Rationale is that forcing parents to have their kids when they're not ready for them significantly increases delinquency in young adults. This is apparently the only pos…

Why abortion and not contraceptives?

Re: America’s incarceration rate is in decline

#33

Post by GuinansEyebrows »

FireBeyond wrote: post #23
GuinansEyebrows wrote: post #8

this is great news. but... i fear the new avenues of business sought by companies that operate for-profit prisons - i don't expect they'll just eat the losses of declining populations in their main moneymakers, and we're already starting to see them work on detention facilities for DHS etc.

> i don't expect they'll just eat the losses of declining populations in their main moneymakers Most of them (probably all) have contracts that stipulate they get paid per bed they provide, whether or not it's occupied.

sure, but if the beds are empty, they're less likely to get new contracts.

Re: America’s incarceration rate is in decline

#34

Post by GuinansEyebrows »

throwaway48476 wrote: post #22
GuinansEyebrows wrote: post #8

this is great news. but... i fear the new avenues of business sought by companies that operate for-profit prisons - i don't expect they'll just eat the losses of declining populations in their main moneymakers, and we're already starting to see them work on detention facilities for DHS etc.

Detention facilities for deportations is an inherently fast shrinking population.

at some point, maybe. i have no trust in DHS whatsoever.

Re: America’s incarceration rate is in decline

#36

Post by wil421 »

gosub100 wrote: post #32
casenmgreen wrote: post #25

Freakonomics argued that crime correlates to whether or not abortion is available. If it is not, crime rates are up, and by a lot. If it is, crime rates are down. When you flip from one to the other, takes about 15/20 years for the effect to show up. Rationale is that forcing parents to have their kids when they're not ready for them significantly increases delinquency in young adults. This is apparently the only pos…

Why abortion and not contraceptives?

They probably aren’t using them.

Re: America’s incarceration rate is in decline

#37

Post by iknowstuff »

gosub100 wrote: post #32
casenmgreen wrote: post #25

Freakonomics argued that crime correlates to whether or not abortion is available. If it is not, crime rates are up, and by a lot. If it is, crime rates are down. When you flip from one to the other, takes about 15/20 years for the effect to show up. Rationale is that forcing parents to have their kids when they're not ready for them significantly increases delinquency in young adults. This is apparently the only pos…

Why abortion and not contraceptives?

Why not both

Re: America’s incarceration rate is in decline

#38

Post by yesbut »

casenmgreen wrote: post #25

Freakonomics argued that crime correlates to whether or not abortion is available. If it is not, crime rates are up, and by a lot. If it is, crime rates are down. When you flip from one to the other, takes about 15/20 years for the effect to show up. Rationale is that forcing parents to have their kids when they're not ready for them significantly increases delinquency in young adults. This is apparently the only pos…

That correlation has pretty much been debunked.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Legalized_abortion_and_crime...

Re: America’s incarceration rate is in decline

#39

Post by jjcob »

casenmgreen wrote: post #25

Freakonomics argued that crime correlates to whether or not abortion is available. If it is not, crime rates are up, and by a lot. If it is, crime rates are down. When you flip from one to the other, takes about 15/20 years for the effect to show up. Rationale is that forcing parents to have their kids when they're not ready for them significantly increases delinquency in young adults. This is apparently the only pos…

I doubt there is a single explanation. I think it's multiple factors.

Unleaded gasoline could also be a factor. Every country has shown drops in crime rates when leaded gasoline was phased out.

If I recall, leaded gasoline was phased out in the 80ies, which fits a drop in crime rates in the 90ies.

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