Why don't Americans trust experts? Just ask a paranormal investigator • Hacker News Board

Re: Why don't Americans trust experts? Just ask a paranormal investigator

#31

Post by sceptic123 » Mon, Jun 23, 2025, 1:47 PM UTC

NalNezumi wrote: post #21

Not just a problem in US but I'd say one of the issue is that we have expert inflation, and not all expertise are equally valid. We have some insight from Decision theory. Klein and Kahneman have both identified required properties for valuable expert intuition (or knowledge, tacit or not) to be available to aquire. (here's a simplified version of this by Veritasium [1]) Most people would see through the conartist cl…

Is there any category that you should blindly trust? What would you do about, for example, a bad firefighter?

And on the opposite side, should no clinical psychologist be trusted? Is nutritional science all wrong?

Re: Why don't Americans trust experts? Just ask a paranormal investigator

#32

Post by mike_hearn » Mon, Jun 23, 2025, 1:47 PM UTC

sorcerer-mar wrote: post #30

mike_hearn wrote: post #28

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The health care system is heavily subject to licensing of various kinds, and academia is heavily defined by grant funding. If just a tiny handful of people in the government decide the healthcare system will say X, then it will say X.

As a case in point, GP refers to "the Healthcare system leveraged our own wellbeing against their profits" That would point toward the business interests of actual provider organizations (like hospitals) or insurers, who have different incentives from each other and very different incentives from individual healthcare providers, who also have very different interests (and are very different people on a variety of dim…

The industries don't matter. They are all subject to very broad and powerful government licensing rules that can overrule their own opinions at any time.

For example, during COVID there were doctors who lost their license to practice because they disagreed with the government stance on vaccines. Therefore, the remaining doctors spoke with one voice. The government used them as sock puppets, in effect. Whether you agree with this policy or not, it is an example in which the healthcare system became one system that "said" things in concert.

Re: Why don't Americans trust experts? Just ask a paranormal investigator

#33

Post by Bnichs » Mon, Jun 23, 2025, 1:51 PM UTC

sorcerer-mar wrote: post #25

Bnichs wrote: post #19

>If our institutions can communicate their work better, supernatural beliefs will dry up a bit. We’ve seen this historically. I feel like this article misses the reason why people distrust institutions. Being "kicked out of the tent" is no doubt part of it, but it's more that the institutions themselves have stopped trying to communicate in good faith. In the past 50 or so years we've seen almost every institution (i…

Nah, you're exhibiting the fundamental problem which is effectively conspiratorial thinking. Not in the UFO sense, and I don't mean it disparagingly at all -- I mean literally ascribing behavior to some type of superstructure that doesn't really exist. "The healthcare system" is not one thing that "says" stuff. For every component of the education system that was trying to eliminate trades, there were others trying t…

A system that naturally occurs as a result of the context like you describe sure sounds like a superstructure. Which in our case is a government that allows anyone with the money to steer the ship while actual people have little power to change anything. And when you put enough of those people with money in a room with people who take money and give them laws, it absolutely results in a single unified direction for that system. Of course there are disenters, but they are ineffective compared to those with actual power.

Re: Why don't Americans trust experts? Just ask a paranormal investigator

#34

Post by arethuza » Mon, Jun 23, 2025, 1:52 PM UTC

reylas wrote: post #24

Apreche wrote: post #18

The logic follows that if experts are in charge, and experts are correct, then we will see positive outcomes from following expert advice. The US, and other parts of the world, has seen some decades where experts have been in positions of authority, but there have not necessarily been positive outcomes. Does this mean the experts are wrong? Nope. It’s for a variety of reasons, but perhaps the largest is that experts…

"A climate scientist knows best", lets talk about this one as it is a perfect example of lost trust. It is not corruption that destroys the message, but constantly being incorrect. Just a warning, I may agree with them overall, but they are constantly getting the numbers wrong. We have been 3 years away from the point of no return for the last 20 years. I am old enough to remember the "ice age" that we were going to…

"I am old enough to remember the "ice age" that we were going to enter."

I'm nearly 60 and I don't ever remember anyone talking about an imminent ice age - given my fondness for skiing when I was younger I'm sure I would have noticed.

Re: Why don't Americans trust experts? Just ask a paranormal investigator

#35

Post by sorcerer-mar » Mon, Jun 23, 2025, 1:53 PM UTC

mike_hearn wrote: post #32

sorcerer-mar wrote: post #30

Earlier quoted context omitted.

As a case in point, GP refers to "the Healthcare system leveraged our own wellbeing against their profits" That would point toward the business interests of actual provider organizations (like hospitals) or insurers, who have different incentives from each other and very different incentives from individual healthcare providers, who also have very different interests (and are very different people on a variety of dim…

The industries don't matter. They are all subject to very broad and powerful government licensing rules that can overrule their own opinions at any time. For example, during COVID there were doctors who lost their license to practice because they disagreed with the government stance on vaccines. Therefore, the remaining doctors spoke with one voice. The government used them as sock puppets, in effect. Whether you agr…

No, they aren't "all" subject to licensing rules. That's why the specific industries do matter.

Can you share some examples of these doctors? AFAIK the only doctors who lost their licenses are those who created fake medical documentation or who shared verifiably false medical information. Not for "disagreeing" with the government stance on vaccines.

I don't know if you lived in a different timeline than me, but I remember a lively debate throughout the entirety of COVID. Consensus (and evidence) was overwhelmingly on one side, sure, similar to how consensus is that you should go to the hospital if you get a heart attack. And yeah, if a doctor advises someone against that despite strong clinical evidence that the patient is best served by going to the hospital, they'll jeopardize their license.

Re: Why don't Americans trust experts? Just ask a paranormal investigator

#36

Post by sceptic123 » Mon, Jun 23, 2025, 1:53 PM UTC

techpineapple wrote: post #17

kevingadd wrote: post #3

We've got an inclusive framework right now for alternative theories of medicine in my country, and a guy who believes in miasma theory instead of germ theory is shutting down medical research programs and getting rid of vaccines. I think I've had enough of the inclusive frameworks this article advocates for.

A big part of the problem is the whole a lie gets halfway around the world, before the truth has a chance to get its pants on thing. Generally speaking, between your average conspiracy theorist, and the average university scientist, rhetorically speaking, the conspiracy theorist will probably run circles around the scientist. To a lay persons understanding of argument and rhetoric, unless you have a good bullshit det…

Bullshit detectors are a huge part of the problem (and a big part of conspiracy theory methodology). If something is fundamentally true but is also counterintuitive, it will never pass a bullshit detector. On the other hand, a statement that is convincing but is actually false is relatively simple to make and hard to argue against (just ask ChatGPT).

Re: Why don't Americans trust experts? Just ask a paranormal investigator

#37

Post by jaybrendansmith » Mon, Jun 23, 2025, 1:54 PM UTC

mike_hearn wrote: post #28

sorcerer-mar wrote: post #25

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Nah, you're exhibiting the fundamental problem which is effectively conspiratorial thinking. Not in the UFO sense, and I don't mean it disparagingly at all -- I mean literally ascribing behavior to some type of superstructure that doesn't really exist. "The healthcare system" is not one thing that "says" stuff. For every component of the education system that was trying to eliminate trades, there were others trying t…

The health care system is heavily subject to licensing of various kinds, and academia is heavily defined by grant funding. If just a tiny handful of people in the government decide the healthcare system will say X, then it will say X.

Everyone needs to simply go to a pharmacy or a doctor's office outside the US one time. If everybody did that, the US Healthcare system would be doused with gasoline, lit on fire, and be burned like the trash that it is.

Re: Why don't Americans trust experts? Just ask a paranormal investigator

#38

Post by sorcerer-mar » Mon, Jun 23, 2025, 1:55 PM UTC

Bnichs wrote: post #33

sorcerer-mar wrote: post #25

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Nah, you're exhibiting the fundamental problem which is effectively conspiratorial thinking. Not in the UFO sense, and I don't mean it disparagingly at all -- I mean literally ascribing behavior to some type of superstructure that doesn't really exist. "The healthcare system" is not one thing that "says" stuff. For every component of the education system that was trying to eliminate trades, there were others trying t…

A system that naturally occurs as a result of the context like you describe sure sounds like a superstructure. Which in our case is a government that allows anyone with the money to steer the ship while actual people have little power to change anything. And when you put enough of those people with money in a room with people who take money and give them laws, it absolutely results in a single unified direction for t…

Yes, it is a superstructure but not one that "says" things and "makes decisions" in the way people imagine.

> it absolutely results in a single unified direction for that system.

Like below, you must live in an alternate timeline. There are lots of people who chose to "go their own way."

Re: Why don't Americans trust experts? Just ask a paranormal investigator

#39

Post by Bnichs » Mon, Jun 23, 2025, 2:13 PM UTC

sorcerer-mar wrote: post #35

mike_hearn wrote: post #32

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The industries don't matter. They are all subject to very broad and powerful government licensing rules that can overrule their own opinions at any time. For example, during COVID there were doctors who lost their license to practice because they disagreed with the government stance on vaccines. Therefore, the remaining doctors spoke with one voice. The government used them as sock puppets, in effect. Whether you agr…

No, they aren't "all" subject to licensing rules. That's why the specific industries do matter. Can you share some examples of these doctors? AFAIK the only doctors who lost their licenses are those who created fake medical documentation or who shared verifiably false medical information. Not for "disagreeing" with the government stance on vaccines. I don't know if you lived in a different timeline than me, but I rem…

The problem is that when the government itself spreads verifiably false information, there are no reprocussions like there are for the individual who does it. Just like when an individual steals money they tend to face consequences, banks who do the same thing on a much more massive scale face nothing.

Re: Why don't Americans trust experts? Just ask a paranormal investigator

#40

Post by sorcerer-mar » Mon, Jun 23, 2025, 2:16 PM UTC

reylas wrote: post #24

Apreche wrote: post #18

The logic follows that if experts are in charge, and experts are correct, then we will see positive outcomes from following expert advice. The US, and other parts of the world, has seen some decades where experts have been in positions of authority, but there have not necessarily been positive outcomes. Does this mean the experts are wrong? Nope. It’s for a variety of reasons, but perhaps the largest is that experts…

"A climate scientist knows best", lets talk about this one as it is a perfect example of lost trust. It is not corruption that destroys the message, but constantly being incorrect. Just a warning, I may agree with them overall, but they are constantly getting the numbers wrong. We have been 3 years away from the point of no return for the last 20 years. I am old enough to remember the "ice age" that we were going to…

> I'm smart and paid close enough attention to see through the bullshit

> [relays bullshit]

There was never anything like a scientific consensus on a coming ice age.

https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/bams/89/9/2008bam...

> One way to determine what scientists think is to ask them. This was actually done in 1977 following the severe 1976/77 winter in the eastern United States. "Collectively," the 24 eminent climatologists responding to the survey "tended to anticipate a slight global warming rather than a cooling" (National Defense University Research Directorate 1978).

> we [also] conducted a rigorous literature review of the American Meteorological Society's electronic archives as well as those of Nature and the scholarly journal archive Journal Storage (JSTOR)... The survey identified only 7 articles indicating cooling compared to 44 indicating warming. Those seven cooling articles garnered just 12% of the citations.

Here's an alternative explanation: you were duped back then just like you've been duped today, but in the opposite direction than you thought.