The sales of helmets in Austin are going to spike
Tesla Robotaxi launch is a dangerous game of smoke and mirrors
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Re: Tesla Robotaxi launch is a dangerous game of smoke and mirrors
#32I have over $100k in Tesla puts. There is no way Tesla survives this. They have plummeting sales every quarter, and Elon is pushing out a product that is going to get into an accident within the first week. Robotaxis are glorified Ubers and will never level up to Waymos. FSD is useless if you have to keep your eye on the wheel and road. I have a Tesla Model Y. It's my favorite car I've ever driven. I subscribed to FS…
There will be incidents and Tesla will just put the blame on drivers, and if you're buying one it most certainly has a clause that you cannot blame Tesla for the problems that the system will cause.
Liability waivers are often limited by state law, especially when negligence is involved.
Re: Tesla Robotaxi launch is a dangerous game of smoke and mirrors
#33This stood out to me:
> the automaker posted a new job listing days ago for engineers to help build a low-latency teleoperation system to operate its “self-driving” cars and robots.
It's June 17; they're supposedly launching in five days. Even if it's 95% off-the-shelf software, that timeframe for getting it up and debugged, then hiring enough humans to operate it, makes absolutely no sense. After nearly a decade of broken promises about FSD, has Elon finally trapped himself? Will there be a handful of "robotaxis" circling around a few blocks of Austin with Mexicans hiding in the frunk to drive them?
I'm glad I don't live there.
Re: Tesla Robotaxi launch is a dangerous game of smoke and mirrors
#34We are potentially about to see a worse incident than Uber in Phoenix or Cruise in SF. 444 miles per Critical Disengagement is terrible. In 2023, Waymo reported 17,000 miles between Critical Disengagements and have made significant (as seen by a functioning robotaxi service) leaps since.
Cruise in SF was a bit of a freak accident. There were systematic issues that exacerbated the issue, but it wasn't an issue of bad disengagement numbers. In fact, Cruise 2023 actually highlights how misleading disengagement numbers can be, as they reported 0 critical disengagements the entire year over 583k miles. Waymo is extremely consistent about their numbers and they typically sandbag themselves relative to thei…
> Cruise in SF was a bit of a freak accident.
The ensuing cover-up attempt wasn't, though.
Re: Tesla Robotaxi launch is a dangerous game of smoke and mirrors
#35I have over $100k in Tesla puts. There is no way Tesla survives this. They have plummeting sales every quarter, and Elon is pushing out a product that is going to get into an accident within the first week. Robotaxis are glorified Ubers and will never level up to Waymos. FSD is useless if you have to keep your eye on the wheel and road. I have a Tesla Model Y. It's my favorite car I've ever driven. I subscribed to FS…
Best of luck, I can't tell you how much I have lost having rational takes on Tesla that proved correct in reality, but ultimately immaterial to shareholders. Tesla stock is a cult stock. People buy it because it goes up. It always goes up. Wall street has long been clued into the brain damage and delusions it's core investors have, and are more than happy to play into the fantasy. Its a company of perpetual massive p…
While I agree with everything you said, there was one main factor regarding this particular grift - The public opinion in general used to be a lot more positive about Musk.
I wonder if his constant lies are becoming more scrutinized now. This will make it harder to keep up the game of making outlandish promises that are only 1 year away.
Re: Tesla Robotaxi launch is a dangerous game of smoke and mirrors
#36Note that electrec.co only ever has negative takes on Tesla.
OK but also note there's also not a "both sides" to everything. Some stuff can just suck.
Re: Tesla Robotaxi launch is a dangerous game of smoke and mirrors
#37Earlier quoted context omitted.
So - the cooked-ness of Tesla may depend on what you think Musk's goal was with Tesla. If you believe he was out to change the world - maybe he'll let Tesla die. It's unlikely they are going to accomplish much else at this point, better, smarter more experienced competitors are sweeping the board. If you believe he's out to make as much money as he can, he'll probably course correct at some point. Lidar it is clear w…
I don't understand how you could look at Elon's actions and think he has any interest in making as much money as he can. He's already made his money. Now he's gone full Howard Hughes. "I would like to die on Mars" is a direct quote.
Actions like leveraging the relationship with Trump to get the government to buy a ton of StarLink and Cybertrucks? Him and his companies hold a few billion in crypto, and is possibly one of the major holders of the Trump shitcoin?
It appears to be self-dealing for profit to me, the Trump relationship being his path to his next hundred billion dollars in net worth. What does it look like to you?
Re: Tesla Robotaxi launch is a dangerous game of smoke and mirrors
#38I have over $100k in Tesla puts. There is no way Tesla survives this. They have plummeting sales every quarter, and Elon is pushing out a product that is going to get into an accident within the first week. Robotaxis are glorified Ubers and will never level up to Waymos. FSD is useless if you have to keep your eye on the wheel and road. I have a Tesla Model Y. It's my favorite car I've ever driven. I subscribed to FS…
I also got the free month of FSD about four months ago and tried it out on my Model 3, and was astonished at how bad it was in the greater Seattle area: I had to manually intervene on about 4 out of every 5 drives. I do not understand how I continue to see so many comments online raving about how great FSD is; I have to conclude these are coming from either desperate stock-boosters or people who drive exclusively on…
It's definitely behind Waymo level, but the selling point of Tesla FSD is apparently that it works with 'normal' cameras as opposed to the super expensive Waymo kit so they can afford to put it in an upper mid range car.
I've seen it action only in my friend's Tesla in SF, and he also had to manually intervene, but to be fair Tesla themselves say you must be ready to take the wheel at any time. I think it may reach fully autonomous level with a few more years in the oven though.
Re: Tesla Robotaxi launch is a dangerous game of smoke and mirrors
#39Tesla had more chance to succeed than Waymo. It's impossible for Waymo to match Tesla in real world training and testing data. Somehow Waymo is winning.
Waymo has already lapped Tesla. They sell 250,000 rides per week and rising, for a total well over 10 million. That compares to precisely zero rides sold commercially by Tesla. It's possible Tesla could catch up, but first they need to stop losing ground and develop technology that can actually compete with their leading competitor. Plus, right now the Tesla brand is synonymous with the most obnoxious blowhard in America. Meanwhile the Waymo brand is on the way to becoming the "Kleenex" of self-driving technology.
Re: Tesla Robotaxi launch is a dangerous game of smoke and mirrors
#40I have over $100k in Tesla puts. There is no way Tesla survives this. They have plummeting sales every quarter, and Elon is pushing out a product that is going to get into an accident within the first week. Robotaxis are glorified Ubers and will never level up to Waymos. FSD is useless if you have to keep your eye on the wheel and road. I have a Tesla Model Y. It's my favorite car I've ever driven. I subscribed to FS…
I think if Robotaxis take off, then his politics won't matter at all. People aren't going to care what brand of car comes to pick them up as long as they feel safe. I've been bearish on Tesla for years and they always prove me wrong. Robotaxis/Waymos are going to be national thing within the decade. It's just a bet on who survives, the biggest loser will be gig workers, that part I feel confident about.
Robotaxis are a pleasant experience now partially because, like early zipcar, it's mostly richer nerds using the service.
Over time they are going to run into all the problems of public infrastructure in low trust places like NYC where, unattended, you will have people use the backseat as a dining room, smoking lounge, bar and toilet. Time will tell how they deal with bad riders.