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Now might be the best time to learn software development

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Re: Now might be the best time to learn software development

#31

Post by [deleted] »

nathanfig wrote: post #27
noworriesnate wrote: post #25

Earlier quoted context omitted.

But software developers often struggle to use sql and prefer using ORMs or analytical APIs like polars; the people who excel at sql are typically not programmers, they’re data engineers, DBAs, analysts, etc. Maybe a similar bifurcation will arise where there are vibe coders who use LLMs to write everything, and there are real engineers who avoid LLMs. Maybe we’re seeing the beginning of that with the whole bifurcatio…

Claude made this point while reviewing my blog for me: the mechanization of farms created a whole lot more specialization of roles. The person editing CAD diagrams of next year's combine harvester may not be a farmer strictly speaking, but farming is still where their livelihood comes from.

[deleted]

Re: Now might be the best time to learn software development

#32

Post by kwk1 »

giraffe_lady wrote: post #15
dehrmann wrote: post #13

The farming quote is interesting, but one of the Jevons paradox requirements is a highly elastic demand curve, and food is inelastic . The open questions right now are how much of a demand is there for more software, and where do AI capabilities plateau.

Reported numbers vary but household food waste seems to be fairly high in developed economies, so food demand might be more elastic than intuition would expect.

Perhaps we should say something like "food demand has an elasticity floor."

Re: Now might be the best time to learn software development

#33

Post by 9rx »

dehrmann wrote: post #13

The farming quote is interesting, but one of the Jevons paradox requirements is a highly elastic demand curve, and food is inelastic . The open questions right now are how much of a demand is there for more software, and where do AI capabilities plateau.

Either way, as quite visibility seen by all the late-1800s mansions still lining the country roads, the era of farmers being "overpaid", as the link puts it, came about 50-75 years after the combine was invented. If the metaphor is to hold, we can assume that developers are currently poor as compared to what the LLM future holds for them.

But, there is a key distinction that we would be remiss to not take note of: By definition, farmers are the owners of the business. Most software developers aren't owners, just lowly employees. If history is to repeat, it is likely that, as usual, the owners are those who will prosper from the advancement.

Re: Now might be the best time to learn software development

#34

Post by veqq »

psunavy03 wrote: post #14

"Great news, boss! We invented this new tool that allows nontechnical people to write code in English! Now anyone can deploy applications, and we don't have to hire all those expensive developers!" "Wow, show it to me!" "OK here it is. We call it COBOL."

In more words: https://alexalejandre.com/languages/end-of-programming-langs...

Re: Now might be the best time to learn software development

#35

Post by veqq »

glimshe wrote: post #16
psunavy03 wrote: post #14

"Great news, boss! We invented this new tool that allows nontechnical people to write code in English! Now anyone can deploy applications, and we don't have to hire all those expensive developers!" "Wow, show it to me!" "OK here it is. We call it COBOL."

You're joking but it's true. I'm sure you know that. SQL had similar claims... Declarative, say what you need and the computer will do for you. Also written in English.

Er, have you heard of datalog or Prolog? Declarative programming really does work. SQL was just... Botched.

Re: Now might be the best time to learn software development

#36

Post by slt2021 »

dehrmann wrote: post #13

The farming quote is interesting, but one of the Jevons paradox requirements is a highly elastic demand curve, and food is inelastic . The open questions right now are how much of a demand is there for more software, and where do AI capabilities plateau.

demand for food is very elastic. if beef becomes more expensive, cheaper protein options get more demand (chicken, pork, tofu, beans).

fruits and all non-essential food items are famously very elastic, and constitute large share of the spending.

for example: if cheap cereal becomes abundant, it is only at the cost of poor quality, so demand for high quality cereal will increase.

the LLM driven software engineering will continuously increase the bar for quality and demand for high quality software

Re: Now might be the best time to learn software development

#37

Post by dredmorbius »

glimshe wrote: post #16
psunavy03 wrote: post #14

"Great news, boss! We invented this new tool that allows nontechnical people to write code in English! Now anyone can deploy applications, and we don't have to hire all those expensive developers!" "Wow, show it to me!" "OK here it is. We call it COBOL."

You're joking but it's true. I'm sure you know that. SQL had similar claims... Declarative, say what you need and the computer will do for you. Also written in English.

I'd long ago (1990s-era) heard that the original intent was that office secretaries would write their own SQL queries.

(I'd love for someone to substantiate or debunk this for me.)

Re: Now might be the best time to learn software development

#38

Post by dredmorbius »

nathanfig wrote: post #27
noworriesnate wrote: post #25

Earlier quoted context omitted.

But software developers often struggle to use sql and prefer using ORMs or analytical APIs like polars; the people who excel at sql are typically not programmers, they’re data engineers, DBAs, analysts, etc. Maybe a similar bifurcation will arise where there are vibe coders who use LLMs to write everything, and there are real engineers who avoid LLMs. Maybe we’re seeing the beginning of that with the whole bifurcatio…

Claude made this point while reviewing my blog for me: the mechanization of farms created a whole lot more specialization of roles. The person editing CAD diagrams of next year's combine harvester may not be a farmer strictly speaking, but farming is still where their livelihood comes from.

Strictly speaking, farming is where all our livelihoods come from, in the greatest part. We're all living off the surplus value of food production.

(Also of other food, energy, and materials sourcing: fishing, forestry, mining, etc.)

This was the insight of the French economist François Quesnay in his Tableau économique, foundation of the Physiocratic school of economics.

Re: Now might be the best time to learn software development

#39

Post by dredmorbius »

giraffe_lady wrote: post #15
dehrmann wrote: post #13

The farming quote is interesting, but one of the Jevons paradox requirements is a highly elastic demand curve, and food is inelastic . The open questions right now are how much of a demand is there for more software, and where do AI capabilities plateau.

Reported numbers vary but household food waste seems to be fairly high in developed economies, so food demand might be more elastic than intuition would expect.

I've seen consistent values for food waste reported for at least the past 40 years, if not the past 80, in various sources. I suspect it's something of a constant. One observation I've seen is that food wastage now occurs far later in the processing cycle, which is to say, after far more resources (transport, processing, refrigeration, cooking) have been invested in it.

In the long term, food demand is elastic in that populations tend to grow.

Re: Now might be the best time to learn software development

#40

Post by lipowitz »

nathanfig wrote: post #27
noworriesnate wrote: post #25

Earlier quoted context omitted.

But software developers often struggle to use sql and prefer using ORMs or analytical APIs like polars; the people who excel at sql are typically not programmers, they’re data engineers, DBAs, analysts, etc. Maybe a similar bifurcation will arise where there are vibe coders who use LLMs to write everything, and there are real engineers who avoid LLMs. Maybe we’re seeing the beginning of that with the whole bifurcatio…

Claude made this point while reviewing my blog for me: the mechanization of farms created a whole lot more specialization of roles. The person editing CAD diagrams of next year's combine harvester may not be a farmer strictly speaking, but farming is still where their livelihood comes from.

Removing jobs that could only be performed by those living near the particular fields with those that can be done anywhere makes jobs for the person willing to take the least satisfactory compensation for the most skill and work.

Working the summer fields was one of the least desirable jobs but still gave local students with no particular skills a good supplemental income appropriate for whichever region.

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