Hacker News Board Hacker News, browsed like a classic message board
Live data from Hacker News

The drawbridges come up: the dream of a interconnected context ecosystem is over

dbreunig.com

Post reply on HN
Print view View original

31–40 of 85 posts

Re: The drawbridges come up: the dream of a interconnected context ecosystem is over

#31

Post by msgodel »

layer8 wrote: post #27
msgodel wrote: post #20

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think it's already starting. Apple can't produce anything people just have to have anymore because of the attitude that's causing this. You can see this in their sales numbers.

People “have to have” an iPhone because it’s a status symbol. Not sure how AI is going to change that.

So was the Blackberry. Better radios and mobile SOCs absolutely changed that.

Mathias Wandel (an ex Blackberry engineer) has a neat video where he explains exactly how that happened and the attitudes are strikingly similar to the ones today.

Re: The drawbridges come up: the dream of a interconnected context ecosystem is over

#32

Post by msgodel »

freeone3000 wrote: post #30
msgodel wrote: post #20

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think it's already starting. Apple can't produce anything people just have to have anymore because of the attitude that's causing this. You can see this in their sales numbers.

I am completely uninterested to going back to the privacy-stealing, ad-infested nightmare that is Android. Besides, what would I even gain? iOS 25 just got live translation in calls and item extraction from screen (not just photos). So what am I missing?

I think you should read and/or think more carefully.

Re: The drawbridges come up: the dream of a interconnected context ecosystem is over

#34

Post by MichaelZuo »

Permit wrote: post #28

> Once network effects crowded a few winners, the drawbridges slowly pulled up. Previously simple APIs evolved into complicated layers of access controls and pricing tiers. Winning platforms adjusted their APIs so you could support their platforms, but not build anything competitive. Perhaps the best example of this was Twitter’s 2012 policy adjustment which limited client 3rd party apps to a maximum of 100,000 users…

It does like seem there are so many inherent disadvantages that the original proponents must have been confused or intentionally ignoring realistic factors…

It’s like they never even tallied up all plausible advantages and disadvantages in the first place. So how did anyone determine it was an overall net positive?

Re: The drawbridges come up: the dream of a interconnected context ecosystem is over

#35

Post by achierius »

msgodel wrote: post #20
robertlagrant wrote: post #18

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I feel strongly enough about this that I'm shorting Apple over it. How long do you think it will take for this to meaningfully override Apple's share price?

I think it's already starting. Apple can't produce anything people just have to have anymore because of the attitude that's causing this. You can see this in their sales numbers.

This seems unrelated to your original thesis though, no?

Re: The drawbridges come up: the dream of a interconnected context ecosystem is over

#36

Post by tempodox »

> But it didn’t last.

Of course not. All this gatekeeping is how every Tom, Dick and Harriette make their money and wrestle for dominance. Believing that any specific tech would fundamentally change that is hopelessly naive. The honeymoon phases that make it look like it could be different this time around are merely there to lock in lots of users.

It's in the nature of capitalism and that's not a technological issue.

Re: The drawbridges come up: the dream of a interconnected context ecosystem is over

#37

Post by skybrian »

Permit wrote: post #28

> Once network effects crowded a few winners, the drawbridges slowly pulled up. Previously simple APIs evolved into complicated layers of access controls and pricing tiers. Winning platforms adjusted their APIs so you could support their platforms, but not build anything competitive. Perhaps the best example of this was Twitter’s 2012 policy adjustment which limited client 3rd party apps to a maximum of 100,000 users…

Nowadays we expect popular tweets to be screenshotted, just as popular webpages are usually archived somewhere.

Bluesky has decided that it’s not a bug and is not going to be fixed: you can delete a post, but someone could have saved it, and worse, it’s digitally signed.

Re: The drawbridges come up: the dream of a interconnected context ecosystem is over

#38

Post by skybrian »

msgodel wrote: post #17
seydor wrote: post #10

I m optimistic, because LLMs can understand plain language. MCP won't last as the article correctly states, but you will always be able to say to your AI to open your email and search whatever. And companies cannot block you from doing that as long as it is your own PC / Phone. If we do allow companies to block AI agents from accessing our own computers and data, then the users are to blame for falling again into ano…

I think the demand for this will actually kill closed ecosystems like iOS. I feel strongly enough about this that I'm shorting Apple over it. They won't be able to get it right because every integration will have to be canned while companies giving the LLMs/users a shell will allow them to do anything. People get confused because that used to not matter, most users couldn't do anything with a shell. That's no longer…

I think you’re extrapolating too much from the enthusiasm of early adopters? There is widespread skepticism about AI. A lot of people aren’t that eager to use it and resent having new AI features pushed on them by overenthusiastic vendors.

Maybe users would rather keep their data safe than have it exfiltrated by a confused AI?

Re: The drawbridges come up: the dream of a interconnected context ecosystem is over

#39

Post by veqq »

Permit wrote: post #28

> Once network effects crowded a few winners, the drawbridges slowly pulled up. Previously simple APIs evolved into complicated layers of access controls and pricing tiers. Winning platforms adjusted their APIs so you could support their platforms, but not build anything competitive. Perhaps the best example of this was Twitter’s 2012 policy adjustment which limited client 3rd party apps to a maximum of 100,000 users…

Precisely what kneecapped the semantic web. Why make it easier for the competition to take all of your data?

Re: The drawbridges come up: the dream of a interconnected context ecosystem is over

#40

Post by bobbiechen »

seydor wrote: post #10

I m optimistic, because LLMs can understand plain language. MCP won't last as the article correctly states, but you will always be able to say to your AI to open your email and search whatever. And companies cannot block you from doing that as long as it is your own PC / Phone. If we do allow companies to block AI agents from accessing our own computers and data, then the users are to blame for falling again into ano…

I am less optimistic. Even paid products like Netflix or the Amazon Kindle are ad-monetized now.

I think the current useful state of consumer LLMs is a temporary subsidy, and the incentives to add ads are too large. And that will change everything, even tools that should work for the user. I recently wrote a blog post on this: https://digitalseams.com/blog/the-ai-lifestyle-subsidy-is-go...

Post reply on HN