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The Future of Compute: Nvidia's Crown Is Slipping

mohitdagarwal.substack.com

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Re: The Future of Compute: Nvidia's Crown Is Slipping

#31

Post by crote »

ein0p wrote: post #10

How can it be "slipping" if they sell out of all their stuff years in advance? I still can't find any sanely priced 5090s. And before you point out that 5090s are not their main revenue driver, they're sold out of H100s and so on years in advance, too.

Same way they lost the crypo mining market.

They are losing their biggest customers to custom in-house silicon, and smaller orders are going to compete with a market being flooded by superfluous hardware from companies which either went bust due the the AI bubble shrinking, or went bust because they weren't able to compete with the big fish.

Re: The Future of Compute: Nvidia's Crown Is Slipping

#32

Post by voidspark »

aleph_minus_one wrote: post #29
chneu wrote: post #16

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Gosh, I have a coworker who acts like gaming GPUs are the only hardware that matters. I've tried explaining that one or two AI data center clients for Nvidia dwarfs the entire gaming GPU market, but he just doesn't get it.

> Gosh, I have a coworker who acts like gaming GPUs are the only hardware that matters. > I've tried explaining that one or two AI data center clients for Nvidia dwarfs the entire gaming GPU market, but he just doesn't get it. I have a feeling that the different judgements come from the fact that the coworker thinks that the AI bubble will soon burst - thus, in his judgement, the AI data center sector of Nvidia is in…

His coworker simply has no idea that datacenters provide 93% of Nvidia's revenue, and a single B200 GPU sells for $40k.

Re: The Future of Compute: Nvidia's Crown Is Slipping

#33

Post by CapsAdmin »

01100011 wrote: post #27

Seems like another article based on the assumption that Nvidia just sits there doing nothing while everyone who has so far proven unable to compete suddenly figures it out and steals their lunch. At some point one of these Nvidia doomers will be right but there is a long line of them who failed miserably.

I guess some people just want to doom, but after getting into stocks late in life, I can't shake the feeling that some do it for a purpose.

Re: The Future of Compute: Nvidia's Crown Is Slipping

#34

Post by kadushka »

voidspark wrote: post #28
01100011 wrote: post #27

Seems like another article based on the assumption that Nvidia just sits there doing nothing while everyone who has so far proven unable to compete suddenly figures it out and steals their lunch. At some point one of these Nvidia doomers will be right but there is a long line of them who failed miserably.

> everyone who has so far proven unable to compete The article explains that Nvidia's biggest customers (50% of datacenter revenue) are switching to their own hardware.

Seems like the opposite to me: https://www.datacenterdynamics.com/en/news/google-in-talks-t...

Re: The Future of Compute: Nvidia's Crown Is Slipping

#35

Post by voidspark »

liuliu wrote: post #30
voidspark wrote: post #25

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Wrong. It's all explained in the article. https://www.reuters.com/technology/artificial-intelligence/m... https://azure.microsoft.com/en-us/blog/azure-maia-for-the-er... https://aws.amazon.com/ai/machine-learning/trainium/

Of course corporations will have a lot of different bets. Most of them will not pan out but they will try. Meta will not be able to produce a chip that can run GenAI workload in the next 2 years. Microsoft is doing a side-quest, and they haven't even proved themselves with their FPGA adventure and ARM server adventure. Amazon is legit, they have done well on ARM server, but trainium is TBD, and how much they will pul…

Yeah that's right. The chip may not be as good as Nvidia's, but it doesn't need to be. As the article explains, Nvidia can still lose their position even if they have the best chips.

Re: The Future of Compute: Nvidia's Crown Is Slipping

#36

Post by aleph_minus_one »

voidspark wrote: post #32
aleph_minus_one wrote: post #29

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Gosh, I have a coworker who acts like gaming GPUs are the only hardware that matters. > I've tried explaining that one or two AI data center clients for Nvidia dwarfs the entire gaming GPU market, but he just doesn't get it. I have a feeling that the different judgements come from the fact that the coworker thinks that the AI bubble will soon burst - thus, in his judgement, the AI data center sector of Nvidia is in…

His coworker simply has no idea that datacenters provide 93% of Nvidia's revenue, and a single B200 GPU sells for $40k.

> His coworker simply has no idea that datacenters provide 93% of Nvidia's revenue, and a single B200 GPU sells for $40k.

Currently. :-)

Re: The Future of Compute: Nvidia's Crown Is Slipping

#37

Post by monocasa »

voidspark wrote: post #28
01100011 wrote: post #27

Seems like another article based on the assumption that Nvidia just sits there doing nothing while everyone who has so far proven unable to compete suddenly figures it out and steals their lunch. At some point one of these Nvidia doomers will be right but there is a long line of them who failed miserably.

> everyone who has so far proven unable to compete The article explains that Nvidia's biggest customers (50% of datacenter revenue) are switching to their own hardware.

And something like 90% of Nvidia's revenue at this point is from the datacenter market.

Re: The Future of Compute: Nvidia's Crown Is Slipping

#38

Post by adventured »

crote wrote: post #31
ein0p wrote: post #10

How can it be "slipping" if they sell out of all their stuff years in advance? I still can't find any sanely priced 5090s. And before you point out that 5090s are not their main revenue driver, they're sold out of H100s and so on years in advance, too.

Same way they lost the crypo mining market. They are losing their biggest customers to custom in-house silicon, and smaller orders are going to compete with a market being flooded by superfluous hardware from companies which either went bust due the the AI bubble shrinking, or went bust because they weren't able to compete with the big fish.

The AI market will be drastically larger in 10-15 years, not smaller. The bubble aspects of the present will be trivial compared to the long-term result, as with the dotcom bubble. Google all by itself is worth more today than all the combined dotcoms in existence in 1999.

Re: The Future of Compute: Nvidia's Crown Is Slipping

#40

Post by voidspark »

kadushka wrote: post #34
voidspark wrote: post #28

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> everyone who has so far proven unable to compete The article explains that Nvidia's biggest customers (50% of datacenter revenue) are switching to their own hardware.

Seems like the opposite to me: https://www.datacenterdynamics.com/en/news/google-in-talks-t...

You linked to an article about Google renting an insignificant amount of additional capacity.

Google runs AI / HPC workloads on their own hardware and has been doing that for more than a decade. Google Gemini was trained on TPUs developed in house. It does not run on Nvidia hardware.

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