The salient part: > The time to halt this trading of assets for consumables is now, and I have a plan to suggest for getting it done. My remedy may sound gimmicky, and in truth it is a tariff called by another name. But this is a tariff that retains most free-market virtues, neither protecting specific industries nor punishing specific countries nor encouraging trade wars. This plan would increase our exports and mig…
This is basically introducing a second US currency and mandating that it must be used for international trade. Having different currencies for internal vs external trade isn’t usually something I associate with prosperous countries.
Buffett: America's Growing Trade Deficit Is Selling the Nation Out from Under Us [pdf] (2003)
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Re: Buffett: America's Growing Trade Deficit Is Selling the Nation Out from Under Us [pdf] (2003)
#32The salient part: > The time to halt this trading of assets for consumables is now, and I have a plan to suggest for getting it done. My remedy may sound gimmicky, and in truth it is a tariff called by another name. But this is a tariff that retains most free-market virtues, neither protecting specific industries nor punishing specific countries nor encouraging trade wars. This plan would increase our exports and mig…
I don't know if strict import control is a good idea. Look up license raj in India. It also added a lot of opportunities for corruption.
Re: Buffett: America's Growing Trade Deficit Is Selling the Nation Out from Under Us [pdf] (2003)
#33Buffett has been aggressive selling stock in the last year ($134 billion total in 2024) and Berkshire is right now sitting on $334 billion cash vs $272 billion in equities. Kinda funny because he's the first one who will tell you "don't time the market", but he definitely timed it to perfection. "Be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful".
Re: Buffett: America's Growing Trade Deficit Is Selling the Nation Out from Under Us [pdf] (2003)
#34Re: Buffett: America's Growing Trade Deficit Is Selling the Nation Out from Under Us [pdf] (2003)
#35(2003)
Discussion a few days ago: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=43579908
Re: Buffett: America's Growing Trade Deficit Is Selling the Nation Out from Under Us [pdf] (2003)
#36Earlier quoted context omitted.
Over 90% of the trade deficit is attributable to China, the EU, Mexico, Vietnam, Taiwan, Japan, South Korea, and Canada. These are big, diversified economies. Nobody is focused on Cambodia.
Cambodians are, and they were just hit by a 49% tariff, one of the highest applied to anybody.
On the other hand this is a bargaining tactic. I do not think these tariffs will last.
> Instead, recall that President Trump views tariffs as generating negotiating leverage for making deals. It is easier to imagine that after a series of punitive tariffs, trading partners like Europe and China become more receptive to some manner of currency accord in exchange for a reduction of tariffs
https://www.hudsonbaycapital.com/documents/FG/hudsonbay/rese...
And look who wrote it
Re: Buffett: America's Growing Trade Deficit Is Selling the Nation Out from Under Us [pdf] (2003)
#37I mean... if we are going to have the EPA and environmental standards, then it stands to reason that we must tax imports from countries that do not. Otherwise we are just moving the pollution elsewhere while burning even more fuel to ship products here. Right? It kind of shows that a lot of environmentalism is just NIMBY-motivated. It's fine if we trash other peoples' back yards. But a lot of our big environmental problems are global, so not only is this hypocrisy but it doesn't work.
It's good that we have workers' rights and OSHA, but the same logic applies. Otherwise we are just exploiting workers elsewhere.
On a somewhat tangent... I find it kind of disturbing that the one area where I have some agreement with MAGA is the least popular and most roundly criticized MAGA policy, and the one most likely to result in an electoral defeat.
Most of the other stuff in MAGA -- isolationism, a love for strongman rule (at home and elsewhere), authoritarianism, cults of personality, misogyny, racism, etc. -- is stuff that I find horrific, but the only thing people really care about is short term economic outcomes.
Re: Buffett: America's Growing Trade Deficit Is Selling the Nation Out from Under Us [pdf] (2003)
#38Buffett has been aggressive selling stock in the last year ($134 billion total in 2024) and Berkshire is right now sitting on $334 billion cash vs $272 billion in equities. Kinda funny because he's the first one who will tell you "don't time the market", but he definitely timed it to perfection. "Be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful".
Re: Buffett: America's Growing Trade Deficit Is Selling the Nation Out from Under Us [pdf] (2003)
#39This whole balancing the trade deficit is utopia. I will just give a small example using black leather jackets. Black leather jackets are indestructible, you can spill any sort of fluid on them, try to light them on fire (they won't catch fire) throw them in the dirt etc. They never go out of style either, there is basically no reason why an adult should own more than one black leather jacket. Now think of how many b…
Re: Buffett: America's Growing Trade Deficit Is Selling the Nation Out from Under Us [pdf] (2003)
#40Earlier quoted context omitted.
I am not sure this would haves worked since the return of the US stock market was quite high (due to that constant influx of foreign investment notably) compared to any other asset for people/businesses that wanted to invest their profit. Also due to the reserve nature of the USD the dollar and international trade mostly done in USD there is a huge demand for dollars keeping it strong compared to other currencies. Th…
> Also due to the reserve nature of the USD the dollar and international trade mostly done in USD there is a huge demand for dollars keeping it strong compared to other currencies. This fundamentally is at odd with an export driven economy. What if the Dollar weren't the world's reserve currency, either due to deliberate policy by the U.S., or the inevitable fact that the U.S. economy will shrink as a share of the wo…