> Bought in for a quarter million. Long term. It can always dip short term, but check back in 5 years.
So basically he got 2 MI300s and is currently trying to pump AMD?
AMD YOLO
31–40 of 85 posts
Re: AMD YOLO
#32RDNA 4 is proving that AMD can be competitive in GPUs. Is it on par with Blackwell? No. Is is a much better improvement over previous gen than Blackwell? Yes, at least if you consider consumer pricing/marketing.
It'll be competitive just in time for them to move to UDNA.... or have they walked that back too?
Re: AMD YOLO
#33Earlier quoted context omitted.
> foreseeable future I think this is the arguable part. The more AI compute becomes valuable, the more reason there is to divest from their software moat. Their hardware is good, but not unassailable. I think their modest (by tech hype standards) P/E is recognition of this.
They modest P/E ratio is a consequence of growing their earnings so much.
And yet, when other companies have grown their earnings like mad, their price has outgrown it, driving their P/E up further, because the market expects higher future earnings. nvidia is reaping the rewards of the things built up to now, but isn't necessarily expected to continue to hockey stick.
Their P/E is approximately the same as the rest of the S&P 500 technology sector's average.
Re: AMD YOLO
#34Re: AMD YOLO
#35Earlier quoted context omitted.
> foreseeable future I think this is the arguable part. The more AI compute becomes valuable, the more reason there is to divest from their software moat. Their hardware is good, but not unassailable. I think their modest (by tech hype standards) P/E is recognition of this.
They modest P/E ratio is a consequence of growing their earnings so much.
And also there is some recognition that its going to get really hard to grow them as much proportionately. AMD could increase its earnings a lot pretty quickly, but its hard for NVIDIA to grow like that for the same reasons it is hard for Apple to grow. You are already getting so many of the $ available to spend in that area.
Re: AMD YOLO
#36Do all of geohot's posts come off as manic to anyone else?
Yes, but that's just his personality. His mind seems to be racing at 200mph whilst the output device (hands, keyboard etc) can't keep up, so some context gets dropped here and there. I remember I had a hard time watching his streams because he'd type at 160wpm or so, but half of the keypresses were correcting mistakes...
Re: AMD YOLO
#37AMD is probably undervalued, but Nvidia is clearly way overvalued. I don't think the reckoning will come from AMD stealing Nvidia's market share, it'll come when the hype bubble collapses and businesses start treating neural networks like commodities, running whatever is cheapest instead of the absolute most powerful. AMD is in a great position, because they make both great GPU/NPU hardware and great CPU hardware.
> AMD is probably undervalued, but Nvidia is clearly way overvalued. AMD trades at a price to earnings ratio of 99, NVDA trades at a PE of ~38. PE isn't everything when looking at companies, but I don't see other reasons to think AMD is undervalued
That's too shortsighted.
Keep in mind that Nvidia gets to charge astronomical prices because AMD's software is crap. Nvidia charges 2-5x as much for equivalent or worse hardware compared to what AMD is selling. That PE ratio will collapse if AMD ever manages to get its act together.
I'm still astounded AMD has no fired every executive from the CEO down for this obvious multi-year failure.
Re: AMD YOLO
#38Earlier quoted context omitted.
> AMD is probably undervalued, but Nvidia is clearly way overvalued. AMD trades at a price to earnings ratio of 99, NVDA trades at a PE of ~38. PE isn't everything when looking at companies, but I don't see other reasons to think AMD is undervalued
AMD's PE ratio looks high because of their Xilinx acquisition and for tax reasons. You have to look at non-GAAP numbers instead, e.g. AMD's forward PE ratio which is only ~20 or so. Nvidia's forward PE is ~30.
just bought a little amd with zero dilligence, and now i see they aquired xilinx? why would anyone do that... remorse.
Re: AMD YOLO
#39Do all of geohot's posts come off as manic to anyone else?
i like this actually. there is no fluff or weak/suggestive hints at claims, it is what it is.
Re: AMD YOLO
#40I would really love it if people on Hacker News could weigh in on how much of a moat they think CUDA really is. As in: How hard is it to use something else? If you started a project today how much would you want to get paid to not use CUDA?
A lot of readers on this site have a good insight into this and it is a key question financial people are asking without the knowledge many people here possess.