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The Demoralization is just Beginning

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Re: The Demoralization is just Beginning

#31

Post by janalsncm »

ryandamm wrote: post #11

I prefer my economic takes from economists, or people who actually study these things. -there is more to an economy than manufacturing. Using manufacturing metrics to rate an economy is like scoring a soccer game based on how far your players run: in some contexts correlated with “winning” but in others it’s not. -gold is not a good currency or basis for monetary policy. -these ideas only sound self consistent withou…

> like scoring a soccer game based on how far your players run

That’s a pretty good analogy for what GDP is counting, actually.

But I think the larger point is that manufacturing is grounded in something real. It’s a measure of how many tanks and fighter jets you can make, no matter how much they cost to make.

Re: The Demoralization is just Beginning

#32

Post by lxgr »

roenxi wrote: post #21
jfengel wrote: post #6

For his solutions: "Brain drain" is what we had been doing for the past 80 years or so. It worked great. We're specifically driving people away now. "Gold standard" is an idea every sane economist rejected decades ago.

> "Gold standard" is an idea every sane economist rejected decades ago. I don't think any sane economists have ever "rejected" the gold standard, it is known to work. Pretty much any empire ever founded was built on a gold standard. The US jumped away from it because they were going to go bankrupt and picked a system that put the pain off until a later date. Now, 50 years later, they appear to have lost the title of…

> Now, 50 years later, they appear to have lost the title of the world's major superpower.

And how is that causally related to the abandonment of the gold standard? Is the CNY somehow backed by gold, or the RUR?

Re: The Demoralization is just Beginning

#33

Post by skybrian »

> abandon all hopes of being an empire

I should hope so! Imperialist ambitions are what Russia is still doing, but most other nations have realized that war isn’t profitable. Fighting a war to conquer factories will likely result in owning rubble.

This article has a more convincing description of how it works in modern times: https://acoup.blog/2023/07/07/collections-the-status-quo-coa...

Re: The Demoralization is just Beginning

#34

Post by amluto »

jfengel wrote: post #6

For his solutions: "Brain drain" is what we had been doing for the past 80 years or so. It worked great. We're specifically driving people away now. "Gold standard" is an idea every sane economist rejected decades ago.

> "Brain drain" is what we had been doing for the past 80 years or so.

Really? For at least 20 years, if not quite a bit longer, the US has made it obnoxiously difficult for foreign students studying US universities to travel or to remain in the US after graduation.

Re: The Demoralization is just Beginning

#35

Post by dbtc »

janalsncm wrote: post #31
ryandamm wrote: post #11

I prefer my economic takes from economists, or people who actually study these things. -there is more to an economy than manufacturing. Using manufacturing metrics to rate an economy is like scoring a soccer game based on how far your players run: in some contexts correlated with “winning” but in others it’s not. -gold is not a good currency or basis for monetary policy. -these ideas only sound self consistent withou…

> like scoring a soccer game based on how far your players run That’s a pretty good analogy for what GDP is counting, actually. But I think the larger point is that manufacturing is grounded in something real. It’s a measure of how many tanks and fighter jets you can make, no matter how much they cost to make.

Interesting, so to extend the metaphor - in the game of soccer it's the scoring of goals that matters, not the raw physical stamina of the player, but if that facade of civilized competition breaks down, then it's back to the basics.

Re: The Demoralization is just Beginning

#36

Post by _heimdall »

ryandamm wrote: post #11

I prefer my economic takes from economists, or people who actually study these things. -there is more to an economy than manufacturing. Using manufacturing metrics to rate an economy is like scoring a soccer game based on how far your players run: in some contexts correlated with “winning” but in others it’s not. -gold is not a good currency or basis for monetary policy. -these ideas only sound self consistent withou…

> or people who actually study these things

How do you define "actually study" here, and what makes you think the author didn't study the topic at all?

Its totally fine if you disagree with the author's view or have additional information that they missed or didn't consider.

Writing it off as coming from someone who didn't "actually study" the topic is unnecessarily dismissive.

Re: The Demoralization is just Beginning

#37

Post by almaight »

corimaith wrote: post #23
ryandamm wrote: post #20

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Arguing that manufacturing is strategic is not the same thing as manufacturing being “all that matters in an economy.” There’s a logical fallacy in your rebuttal.

Exactly, people forget we build things for the sake of consumption, not the other way around. You can build a thousand factories for some good but it's dead weight if there is no one to buy their outputs.

The Soviet Union had strong consumption power, but they did not know how to manufacture. The final result was obvious.

Re: The Demoralization is just Beginning

#38

Post by janalsncm »

ryandamm wrote: post #20
gjsman-1000 wrote: post #13

Earlier quoted context omitted.

“there is more to an economy than manufacturing” Not really, no. If China cut off the US, for any reason, who gets hurt more? Who has a bigger house of cards to collapse? Who will have a harder time rebuilding? If the next leader is bolder than Xi, and is of the same kind that once killed tens of millions of people, losing an arm and a leg to behead an enemy might be a viable strategy.

Arguing that manufacturing is strategic is not the same thing as manufacturing being “all that matters in an economy.” There’s a logical fallacy in your rebuttal.

There are other important outcomes of an economy, like better healthcare, education, housing, and well-being. But it seems like those real, tangible outcomes have become decoupled from “the line goes up” economy.

I think the original reply was itself a strawman of the point the article was trying to make. Manufacturing isn’t the only important thing about an economy but it’s an important one.

Re: The Demoralization is just Beginning

#39

Post by rat87 »

roenxi wrote: post #21
jfengel wrote: post #6

For his solutions: "Brain drain" is what we had been doing for the past 80 years or so. It worked great. We're specifically driving people away now. "Gold standard" is an idea every sane economist rejected decades ago.

> "Gold standard" is an idea every sane economist rejected decades ago. I don't think any sane economists have ever "rejected" the gold standard, it is known to work. Pretty much any empire ever founded was built on a gold standard. The US jumped away from it because they were going to go bankrupt and picked a system that put the pain off until a later date. Now, 50 years later, they appear to have lost the title of…

At least the vast majority of sane economist rejected it long ago. That's why people who preach it are called goldbugs.

The US and *every other country jumped from it because it didn't work well and caused frequent instability*. The countries who dumped it quickest recovered from the great depression the fastest

Re: The Demoralization is just Beginning

#40

Post by toast0 »

ViktorRay wrote: post #4

Steve Jobs told Obama something similar once. The idea was to provide worker visas to engineers who did well and graduated from good American universities. Basically give those workers a visa along with their diploma. Obama thought the idea was intriguing and mentioned it multiple times to his advisors. It never went anywhere though. Brain draining the rest of the world is one of the main reasons for America’s succes…

> Basically give those workers a visa along with their diploma.

> Obama thought the idea was intriguing and mentioned it multiple times to his advisors. It never went anywhere though.

This sounds like OPT on an F-1 visa. If the OPT employer likes you, then they sponsor your H-1B application, and with your masters+ degree from an American institution, you get two shots in the lottery. (And if there's a recession, the caps might not get hit anyway). Kind of a drag because you'll probably need to get a masters degree, but it'll help your immigration file later if you want to try for permanent residency, or if you give up and pick a new host country.

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