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The Job Market Is Frozen

theatlantic.com

31–40 of 63 posts

Re: The Job Market Is Frozen

#31
post #25

The article doesn't emphasize the biggest elephant in the room: The zero-interest economy ended and crashed the economy that rode on bloated valuations and stock prices. And now companies are gutting themselves to float the stock prices.

Wasn't that the excuse when they were laying people off two years ago?

Well yeah, but most companies still have a much higher headcount than before the pandemic so those initials layoffs from 2 years ago haven't cut through all the bloat.

Re: The Job Market Is Frozen

#32
It's very similar to the US housing market, which is frozen with the fewest homes exchanging hands in at least 30 years.

Sellers don't want to sell because most of them are sitting on less than 3% mortgage rate. If they sell and buy a new home now, they'll have to pay 7%.

Buyers don't want to buy because of the 7% mortgage rate and the drastically higher housing prices since covid.

I think the job market is very similar to the housing market. People don't want to leave because no one is hiring. New people can't get hired because no one is leaving.

Re: The Job Market Is Frozen

#33

As a software dev should I even bother switching jobs? I really can’t stand my current one, but articles like this and ones about AI are pretty demotivating.

I don't want to spread fear but the market is very bad. Worst then people realize or want to admit. And it could very much be that we haven't seen the worst of it yet.

People are trying to minimize it with comparisons to the dotcom crash or 200X market crash but the circumstances now are unique and no one knows the future.

You can try to send out some resumes and see where they go but unless you have strong pedigree, high level senior, or connections expect to be disappointed.

Re: The Job Market Is Frozen

#34
post #28

Europe is hiring: https://europa.eu/eures/portal/jv-se/home And companies in Europe still embrace home office often even in foreign countries: https://euremotejobs.com/

Looking around me in Germany, I would say that we're out of the gutter at best.

My relocation consultant friends said that hiring has picked up again after their slowest year in business.

At some point it felt as if half of my friends were unemployed. Some of them had their 12 months of unemployment insurance run out, or their 6-month residence permit extension after losing their job. Now a few of them found jobs, but it took them a while and interviewing was far more difficult than before.

This is just anecdata, but it feels like if something recovered from the bottom, it was in the last two months at best.

Re: The Job Market Is Frozen

#35

Duh. Between the chaos in Washington and the commercial real estate crisis (30% of properties are underwater) we’re going to see a big crash, probably this year. Tesla and Nvidia are both huge components of the overall market cap and drive alot of the yields in the last year or two. You’re one Elon scandal or Nvidia earnings miss away from a really bad day. Healthcare is the other wildcard. For the last decade, medic…

> the commercial real estate crisis (30% of properties are underwater)

How bad is that compared to baseline? I mean in theory all new sold houses should be sold at 100% market value to the highest bidder, and thus unsellable at 100% of the price right away.

Re: The Job Market Is Frozen

#36
post #25

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Wasn't that the excuse when they were laying people off two years ago?

Well yeah, but most companies still have a much higher headcount than before the pandemic so those initials layoffs from 2 years ago haven't cut through all the bloat.

It is hard to grasp how Facebook and Google etc. could grow headcount like that. In like five years 2017 to 2022 Google doubled from 100k to 200k.

Re: The Job Market Is Frozen

#37

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Well yeah, but most companies still have a much higher headcount than before the pandemic so those initials layoffs from 2 years ago haven't cut through all the bloat.

It is hard to grasp how Facebook and Google etc. could grow headcount like that. In like five years 2017 to 2022 Google doubled from 100k to 200k.

It really isn't hard to grasp. All large orgs from government to private sector accumulate useless bloat over time if allowed to, since the goal of each employee is to grow their position and influence in the org at the expenses of the org, due to how the incentives for promotion are set up, kind of like a parasite .

And the easiest way to do that is to get the budget to hire a team to work under you, then you basically get an instant promotion to "leader/manager" and you offload your work to those below you while you chill "working" at home and take credit, and boom, the org somehow doubled its headcount overnight without any added productivity or innovation.

This gravy train was allowed to continue while there was an endless supply of free money to enable that added inefficiency, but now that the jig is up, the layoffs are a correction to that.

Re: The Job Market Is Frozen

#38

It's very similar to the US housing market, which is frozen with the fewest homes exchanging hands in at least 30 years. Sellers don't want to sell because most of them are sitting on less than 3% mortgage rate. If they sell and buy a new home now, they'll have to pay 7%. Buyers don't want to buy because of the 7% mortgage rate and the drastically higher housing prices since covid. I think the job market is very simi…

For the job market, there is a solution, pay more and they will come to you. It's just now it's more difficult to make the case because companies have completely eroded the trust to them, aka you cannot lure one with the prospect of career growth, as you will likely lay them off in 1 to 2 years.

Masks have fallen, it's pure barbarism now. Enjoy.

Re: The Job Market Is Frozen

#39

Employers too choosy. It's like everything else in the post-2010s economy: you have to be really talented to get ahead'; otherwise you are stuck or unemployed or menial jobs.

I’m sure some of that is delaying: by having such high standards, they don’t have to go through the risk of actually hiring someone.

Re: The Job Market Is Frozen

#40

It's very similar to the US housing market, which is frozen with the fewest homes exchanging hands in at least 30 years. Sellers don't want to sell because most of them are sitting on less than 3% mortgage rate. If they sell and buy a new home now, they'll have to pay 7%. Buyers don't want to buy because of the 7% mortgage rate and the drastically higher housing prices since covid. I think the job market is very simi…

For the job market, there is a solution, pay more and they will come to you. It's just now it's more difficult to make the case because companies have completely eroded the trust to them, aka you cannot lure one with the prospect of career growth, as you will likely lay them off in 1 to 2 years. Masks have fallen, it's pure barbarism now. Enjoy.

The solution is lower interest rates - for both markets.
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