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How Nissan and Honda's $60B merger talks collapsed

reuters.com

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Re: How Nissan and Honda's $60B merger talks collapsed

#31

Post by onlypassingthru »

alecco wrote: post #8

Japanese carmakers are going to become irrelevant [1] unless there's a major change. But that's very unlikely due to: 1. Supply chains and key raw materials mostly controlled by China 2. Japan's demographic collapse 3. Japanese Gen Z fed up with an unwinnable rat race where they live to just pay rent and groceries It's very sad. [1] https://carnewschina.com/2025/01/13/byd-surpass-toyota-in-ja...

Irrelevant to whom? Toyota, Honda and Subaru all have lifelong customers and for good reason. The cars often last for 20+ years with minimal upkeep.

The current crop of Chinese electric car makers are all trying to fake it until one of them makes it and the money spigot keeping them afloat will eventually get turned off at some point.[0] Good luck keeping that flashy EV running when the company goes bust.

[0]https://www.businessinsider.com/chinese-evs-losses-widen-des...

Re: How Nissan and Honda's $60B merger talks collapsed

#32

Post by mrtksn »

formerly_proven wrote: post #11
alecco wrote: post #8

Japanese carmakers are going to become irrelevant [1] unless there's a major change. But that's very unlikely due to: 1. Supply chains and key raw materials mostly controlled by China 2. Japan's demographic collapse 3. Japanese Gen Z fed up with an unwinnable rat race where they live to just pay rent and groceries It's very sad. [1] https://carnewschina.com/2025/01/13/byd-surpass-toyota-in-ja...

There's one graph that basically predicts which countries are going to fail and which are going to prevail. It's the graph that shows how many people in the "doing things" age bracket a country has. Compare these: (germany) https://population.un.org/wpp/graphs?loc=276&type=Probabilis... (alternatively, Europe as a whole) https://population.un.org/wpp/graphs?loc=908&type=Probabilis... (Japan) https://population.un.org…

What happens when a country fails?

Re: How Nissan and Honda's $60B merger talks collapsed

#33

Post by greenavocado »

morkalork wrote: post #21
formerly_proven wrote: post #11

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There's one graph that basically predicts which countries are going to fail and which are going to prevail. It's the graph that shows how many people in the "doing things" age bracket a country has. Compare these: (germany) https://population.un.org/wpp/graphs?loc=276&type=Probabilis... (alternatively, Europe as a whole) https://population.un.org/wpp/graphs?loc=908&type=Probabilis... (Japan) https://population.un.org…

Canada doesn't feel like it's winning despite what the graph says*. Bringing in tons of working-aged immigrants has caused housing (and other living) costs to explode, which in turn has lead to less people having children, which leads to more immigration to fill the gap and the whole thing has been spiraling. Not fun at all. * https://population.un.org/wpp/graphs?loc=124&type=Probabilis...

Canada is a Calhounian behavioral sink except they stave off the extinction by importing.

Summary with links to various publications at the end: https://notwokedot.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/07/The-Behavi...

Re: How Nissan and Honda's $60B merger talks collapsed

#34

Post by llm_nerd »

tahoeskibum wrote: post #6

Nissan, Honda & eventually Toyota are going to go the way of Nokia/Motorola after iPhone came out. Cheap and reliable Chinese EVs will take over the market (like Android), while Tesla will probably maintain a halo premium product like iPhone.

I have huge doubts that Teslas will retain a "halo premium", except in some very strange circles. Already they're an embarrassing car to own and the financials of that company are rapidly flushing down the toilet, making it a question of how long it will be a going concern (hence all the frantic rushing around for legitimacy in other markets...robots, why not?)

They are widely cited as unreliable, poorly built vehicles. My neighbour bought a used model S and the first time he saw us after buying it he came over to justify his purchase ("Got a killer price, etc").

Re: How Nissan and Honda's $60B merger talks collapsed

#35

Post by potato3732842 »

onlypassingthru wrote: post #31
alecco wrote: post #8

Japanese carmakers are going to become irrelevant [1] unless there's a major change. But that's very unlikely due to: 1. Supply chains and key raw materials mostly controlled by China 2. Japan's demographic collapse 3. Japanese Gen Z fed up with an unwinnable rat race where they live to just pay rent and groceries It's very sad. [1] https://carnewschina.com/2025/01/13/byd-surpass-toyota-in-ja...

Irrelevant to whom? Toyota, Honda and Subaru all have lifelong customers and for good reason. The cars often last for 20+ years with minimal upkeep. The current crop of Chinese electric car makers are all trying to fake it until one of them makes it and the money spigot keeping them afloat will eventually get turned off at some point.[0] Good luck keeping that flashy EV running when the company goes bust. [0] https:/…

All cars last 20+yr if you give a crap unless they have some fundamental engineering or execution Achilles heel (ecoboost water pump, Toyota frame rust, Hyundai engine problems, etc) that will manifest as a comically not-economical repair when the vehicle is old enough in age to be of fairly low value.

Premium cars that aren't so premium as to be disposable (i.e. not a luxury car you're gonna trade in every 3-5yr like clockwork) always last really well because people who can afford nice things can generally afford to maintain them.

This is pretty clearly borne out when you compare same cars across brand e.g. Ford Lincoln Mercury panther platform cars) or look at the exceptions like all those objectively terrible northstar caddilacs and v12 Jags and whatnot that are in impeccable shape because they got used and maintained nicely for a decade before being "retired" to the garage of the owner's vacation property on Cape Cod or perhaps the Hamptons or compare airport people moving vans that were retired to church group service to work vans that got sold down the river to even harder service.

It's really easy to "well we really should sell a water pump while we're in here for your 100k timing service" on a Subaru owned by someone who can afford a Subaru vs selling a preventative transmission fluid change to the guy who could barely scrape together the down payment on a Sentra.

I'm being a little sloppy and leaving some loose ends and room for nitpicking jerks to wedge in but I think the point here is pretty clear.

Re: How Nissan and Honda's $60B merger talks collapsed

#36

Post by orwin »

csours wrote: post #5

At this point I feel like a rising stock price after a crisis should be a major red flag for long term corporate survival. Carlos Ghosn was able to "turn Nissan around", but it was at the expense of future product capabilities (in my opinion) [Disclosure I work for GM, this is solely my own opinion] Also, I must say that it is not clear to me that anyone could know what a long term winning play looked like 10-15 year…

Under Goshn and his close early advisors, Renault-Nissan started working on EVs, launching the Leaf and Zoé. Early, he also managed to streamline production of the two companies, and started to implement management changes that let some workers have more autonomy.

The issue is that power got to his head and truly believe he was the second coming of Jesus or something, and stopped improving his companies to rub shoulders with the Nepo CEO/aristocrat crowd. Had he continued the push toward affordable EV, Nissan could have been BYD, but R&D stopped, for no visible reason.

My personal theory is that the fallout from his divorce estranged him from his early friends and his closest advisor (his wife) and idiotic sycophants made him believe he was above the law and deserved even more. I've heard a lot of good things about pre-2008 Goshn, from people who aren't usually glazing billionaires, so maybe I'm biased.

Re: How Nissan and Honda's $60B merger talks collapsed

#37

Post by AlotOfReading »

heyjamesknight wrote: post #13
hanszarkov wrote: post #10

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Tesla makes great products.

[flagged]

It's wild how different experiences can be. I've had some shitboxes in my day. One car had an air intake that would fall off, so you'd occasionally have to keep the RPMs above 2k or it would stall. One car was a 1970s Russian van held together with duct tape and prayers. The door fell off while driving one day, so I wired it back on with roadside scrap and kept going.

The newish old model 3 I had for a few weeks during a backordered warranty repair was worse than either of them. The charging cable would get stuck. Sometimes the doors wouldn't open and I'd have to reboot the car. The headliner glue failed and dumped the roof on my head. You couldn't see through the rear window if it was raining too hard. Sentry mode would take 8-10% of the battery overnight. Many features simply didn't work without the cellular plan.

Re: How Nissan and Honda's $60B merger talks collapsed

#38

Post by solatic »

tahoeskibum wrote: post #6

Nissan, Honda & eventually Toyota are going to go the way of Nokia/Motorola after iPhone came out. Cheap and reliable Chinese EVs will take over the market (like Android), while Tesla will probably maintain a halo premium product like iPhone.

Honda is bigger than just automobiles, they also hold the lion's share of the two-wheeler market (motorcycles, scooters). They're a far way from dead.

Re: How Nissan and Honda's $60B merger talks collapsed

#39

Post by r00fus »

onlypassingthru wrote: post #31
alecco wrote: post #8

Japanese carmakers are going to become irrelevant [1] unless there's a major change. But that's very unlikely due to: 1. Supply chains and key raw materials mostly controlled by China 2. Japan's demographic collapse 3. Japanese Gen Z fed up with an unwinnable rat race where they live to just pay rent and groceries It's very sad. [1] https://carnewschina.com/2025/01/13/byd-surpass-toyota-in-ja...

Irrelevant to whom? Toyota, Honda and Subaru all have lifelong customers and for good reason. The cars often last for 20+ years with minimal upkeep. The current crop of Chinese electric car makers are all trying to fake it until one of them makes it and the money spigot keeping them afloat will eventually get turned off at some point.[0] Good luck keeping that flashy EV running when the company goes bust. [0] https:/…

Amazing you feel that EVs are somehow more maintenance than ICEs. There exist EVs that have never had any manufacturer/dealer input since the day they rolled off the lot.

Tesla/Nio are a bad examples - many EVs were built to be sold and essentially ignored by the manufacturer.

Re: How Nissan and Honda's $60B merger talks collapsed

#40

Post by timewizard »

csours wrote: post #5

At this point I feel like a rising stock price after a crisis should be a major red flag for long term corporate survival. Carlos Ghosn was able to "turn Nissan around", but it was at the expense of future product capabilities (in my opinion) [Disclosure I work for GM, this is solely my own opinion] Also, I must say that it is not clear to me that anyone could know what a long term winning play looked like 10-15 year…

> At this point I feel like a rising stock price after a crisis should be a major red flag for long term corporate survival.

It depends. If you see a lot of insider buying after a bottom it can be a good sign that there's strong internal faith in the companies future. I've used it as a buy signal myself before when a market cap is high enough. It has paid off.

> it is not clear to me that anyone could know what a long term winning play looked like 10-15 years ago

Well it probably _wasn't_ partnering with a Chinese state company to try to expand the brand there. That was a poison pill.

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