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On DeepSeek and export controls

darioamodei.com

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Re: On DeepSeek and export controls

#31

Post by inglor_cz »

suraci wrote: post #17
Synaesthesia wrote: post #9

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Democratic USA must prevail against Communist China by having better models. edit: (Please read this in a sarcastic voice, I think it's a crazy idea!)

otherwise it will become to a multipolar world(or 'bipolar', said the article) that would be horrible, a multipolar world? what a nightmare

Multipolar world is probably going to have multiple wars on the "edges of control", similar to the one now raging in Ukraine.

It may also have some positives, too, but situations with several similarly sized powers competing for primacy have historically been pretty bloody. Unlike Apple and Google, the US, China, Russia etc. have military forces at their disposal.

Re: On DeepSeek and export controls

#32

Post by Leary »

Dario certainly had no qualms about working with authoritarian regimes when he worked for Baidu!

Also, if the US seeks a permanent advantage over China by 2027 with self-replicating AI, so much so that it can dictate whatever terms militarily. Wouldn't that just force China to send a few cruise missiles to TSMC before that happen?

Re: On DeepSeek and export controls

#33

Post by rcarmo »

StefanBatory wrote: post #27
throwaway_32u10 wrote: post #20

I'm kind of tired of the entire narrative that "US good, everyone else bad", as if only US deserves to hold powerful technology because it will be used for "the greater good", rather than employ it in military applications, as if Anthropic didn't partner with Palantir. And it amazes me how many people can't seem to see past the "US is good, everyone else are bad" smoke mirror.

I mean, in the end, USA is still better than the alternative.

The civilizational alternative is Europe. The economic alternative, that we can debate...

Re: On DeepSeek and export controls

#34

Post by femiagbabiaka »

StefanBatory wrote: post #27
throwaway_32u10 wrote: post #20

I'm kind of tired of the entire narrative that "US good, everyone else bad", as if only US deserves to hold powerful technology because it will be used for "the greater good", rather than employ it in military applications, as if Anthropic didn't partner with Palantir. And it amazes me how many people can't seem to see past the "US is good, everyone else are bad" smoke mirror.

I mean, in the end, USA is still better than the alternative.

U.S. and Chinese hegemony are just different kinds of bad. We could put the pros and cons up and debate it endlessly, but in the end ranking them is pointless, humanity should just be trying to make a better alternative

Re: On DeepSeek and export controls

#36

Post by highfrequency »

The technical summary is excellent. But I worry that prominent US voices couching AI progress in Cold War style war rhetoric is likely to be... self-fulfilling. Surely some of the people paying closest attention to these articles are Chinese politicians and military leaders - it would definitely seem alarming to me if the Deepseek CEO kept writing things like: "whoever reaches this threshold of AI intelligence first will accelerate into world military domination - we must beat the US."

There's a reason why Oppenheimer & co. weren't non-stop publishing internationally accessible op-eds during WWII about how important it is that Germany not develop a scaled uranium fission bomb before the US.

Re: On DeepSeek and export controls

#37

Post by rcarmo »

AlanYx wrote: post #26

This piece ignores recent news that DeepSeek is doing inference on Huawei’s Ascend 910C GPUs. The simplified export control analysis Amodei gives here gets a lot more complicated when increasing export controls potentially ends up spurring additional R&D in Nvidia competitors.

There are lots of people working on ASICs for inference. There are already people using FPGAs for some vertically integrated AI stacks, so it's only a matter of time until we start discussing literally hard-coding models (or flashing them) to hardware to make them go faster.

Re: On DeepSeek and export controls

#38

Post by slaw »

rcarmo wrote: post #33
StefanBatory wrote: post #27

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I mean, in the end, USA is still better than the alternative.

The civilizational alternative is Europe. The economic alternative, that we can debate...

Europe, especially UK, France and Germany degraded so much it is no longer any alternative.

Re: On DeepSeek and export controls

#39

Post by Kostchei »

rcarmo wrote: post #25

I like a lot of what Dario writes, but in this case I just can't follow the reasoning. Everything I've picked up about how DeepSeek did what they did (including going a level lower than CUDA to better take advantage of the limited hardware[1], and the balance of techniques used[2]) points to some very smart Chinese engineers having out-smarted US ones (to put it in terms that matter to US folk, because I'm European a…

yeh. I see Dario saying "let's protect the US more" for no reason other than bias and "of course they improved over time" which feels like a mighty strong strain of copium. Very disappointing for a leader of an organization i respected. Assuming he speaks for Anthropic, and it seems he does, Past tense.

Re: On DeepSeek and export controls

#40

Post by wongarsu »

daft_pink wrote: post #15

I just want to ask if when we talk about export controls on AI chips, is this going to create export controls on general consumer goods in the near future. Given Moore’s law and the efficiency that will clearly come from optimizing chips for AI and competition increasing the amount of VRAM on these devices to run models locally. Is creating an export regime today going to mean that in 3 or 4 years general smart phone…

That would be a great way to give Non-American companies an advantage in the market. Imagine if Apple has to constantly worry about complying with US export controls while Samsung, a Korean company, can just ship whatever they want with zero additional paperwork as long as they avoid US suppliers. Multiply that over all consumer goods that might include AI.
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