So is anyone working on increasing those odds?
Asteroid Impact on Earth 2032 with Probability 1% and 8Mt Energy
31–40 of 374 posts
Re: Asteroid Impact on Earth 2032 with Probability 1% and 8Mt Energy
#32Re: Asteroid Impact on Earth 2032 with Probability 1% and 8Mt Energy
#33Re: Asteroid Impact on Earth 2032 with Probability 1% and 8Mt Energy
#34I used genAI to help me understand the Palermo scale number seeming low. The 2032 asteroid does warrant tracking, but the Palermo Scale remains below a critical level because: The impact probability (1.2%) is not high enough to trigger a stronger alarm. The background frequency of 8 Mt impacts is relatively high, making this event less statistically exceptional. The event is still 8 years away, so uncertainties in or…
I find it fascinating that some people may brag about not using their brain like that…
Asking a LLM about topics you have no idea about it a great way to be misled by hallucinations, don't do that.
Re: Asteroid Impact on Earth 2032 with Probability 1% and 8Mt Energy
#35I used genAI to help me understand the Palermo scale number seeming low. The 2032 asteroid does warrant tracking, but the Palermo Scale remains below a critical level because: The impact probability (1.2%) is not high enough to trigger a stronger alarm. The background frequency of 8 Mt impacts is relatively high, making this event less statistically exceptional. The event is still 8 years away, so uncertainties in or…
I asked a parrot about quantum physics and it told me I’m a pretty bird.
Re: Asteroid Impact on Earth 2032 with Probability 1% and 8Mt Energy
#36Given the predicted time, could we calculate which hemisphere is most likely for it to impact?
Re: Asteroid Impact on Earth 2032 with Probability 1% and 8Mt Energy
#37Given the predicted time, could we calculate which hemisphere is most likely for it to impact?
It is listing 6 possible impacts.
Re: Asteroid Impact on Earth 2032 with Probability 1% and 8Mt Energy
#38About 16x the energy of the Chelyabinsk meteor.
Re: Asteroid Impact on Earth 2032 with Probability 1% and 8Mt Energy
#39What can be done to increase the asteroid impact probability?
And can we speed up the timeline? 2032 is too far away.
Re: Asteroid Impact on Earth 2032 with Probability 1% and 8Mt Energy
#40Working link: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/sentry/details.html#?des=2024%20Y... 8.1 megatons of kinetic energy. According to the Torino rating, only risk of “localized destruction” (less than “regional devastation”): https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/sentry/torino_scale.html
*megatons of TNT. 1 MT of TNT = 4.14*10^15 joules