31–40 of 59 posts
I think cars will become either disposable or large assemblies will need to be replaced in full. I'm reminded of how the tv repairman disappeared. TVs too integrated to fix easily, too complicated to fix economically.
The integration also leads ro low prices though: A bug trinitron used to be $1500-$2000. Today you can get a 4k TV that is twice as big, much cheaper to run, and beats the 1080i that the largest tubes could support 20 years ago. The lower upfront coat just wins, especially when technology keeps improving so fast you'd rather get the new thing than repair the old one at, say, half the price
That typically involves minimizing labor (engineering / R&D) costs. That’s why you see solutions implemented in a quick / scrappy way even though it’s often obvious a better solution exists from the end user perspective… the chosen solution was the best solution for the actual objective: maximize profits.
I think cars will become either disposable or large assemblies will need to be replaced in full. I'm reminded of how the tv repairman disappeared. TVs too integrated to fix easily, too complicated to fix economically.
The integration also leads ro low prices though: A bug trinitron used to be $1500-$2000. Today you can get a 4k TV that is twice as big, much cheaper to run, and beats the 1080i that the largest tubes could support 20 years ago. The lower upfront coat just wins, especially when technology keeps improving so fast you'd rather get the new thing than repair the old one at, say, half the price
I was seriously considering buying an Ineos Grenadier because I wanted a nice, modern, safe solid axle 4x4 with decent towing capacity that'll last 50 years or so, but the complexity of that B57/58 and the ZF 8spd, let alone all the other electronic trash like parking sensors, lane sensors, etc scared me off. Theoretically I might be able to keep it running on that timescale with standalone controllers for the transm…
> 30 years, all that complexity, and we gained 1mpg. We also got far lower tailpipe emissions, less expensive manufacturing processes, far better rust prevention, and far better passenger and pedestrian safety features. Not to mention a more comfortable ride, almost zero water intrusion, lower cabin noise and vibration, less wind and tire noise, and longer lasting consumables such as plugs, oil, tires, and filters.
They’re incredibly safer and yet the cost hasn’t gone crazy.
I was seriously considering buying an Ineos Grenadier because I wanted a nice, modern, safe solid axle 4x4 with decent towing capacity that'll last 50 years or so, but the complexity of that B57/58 and the ZF 8spd, let alone all the other electronic trash like parking sensors, lane sensors, etc scared me off. Theoretically I might be able to keep it running on that timescale with standalone controllers for the transm…
> "So I bought an 80 Series Toyota. It only gets 1mpg less than the Grenadier. 30 years, all that complexity, and we gained 1mpg." The Grenadier complies with many emissions, collision, and other regulatory requirements than the Toyota, and it probably costs less than the series 80 did new (compensated for inflation).
I have very little confidence I'd actually be able to keep a Grenadier on the road forever. I suspect it's at most a 20yr car. We'll see maybe in 30 years I'll get a used one and prove myself wrong.
Earlier quoted context omitted.
The integration also leads ro low prices though: A bug trinitron used to be $1500-$2000. Today you can get a 4k TV that is twice as big, much cheaper to run, and beats the 1080i that the largest tubes could support 20 years ago. The lower upfront coat just wins, especially when technology keeps improving so fast you'd rather get the new thing than repair the old one at, say, half the price
yeah, but we're talking about cars. Do we want to make cars disposable? Should people throw away their car every 12 years when parts are no longer made or the battery dies?
If by making everything more reliable but hard to repair, they'd reliably go 12 years before exploding, I think it'd be a net win, as long as we had adequate recycling options available.
I was seriously considering buying an Ineos Grenadier because I wanted a nice, modern, safe solid axle 4x4 with decent towing capacity that'll last 50 years or so, but the complexity of that B57/58 and the ZF 8spd, let alone all the other electronic trash like parking sensors, lane sensors, etc scared me off. Theoretically I might be able to keep it running on that timescale with standalone controllers for the transm…
> 30 years, all that complexity, and we gained 1mpg. We also got far lower tailpipe emissions, less expensive manufacturing processes, far better rust prevention, and far better passenger and pedestrian safety features. Not to mention a more comfortable ride, almost zero water intrusion, lower cabin noise and vibration, less wind and tire noise, and longer lasting consumables such as plugs, oil, tires, and filters.
Earlier quoted context omitted.
> 30 years, all that complexity, and we gained 1mpg. We also got far lower tailpipe emissions, less expensive manufacturing processes, far better rust prevention, and far better passenger and pedestrian safety features. Not to mention a more comfortable ride, almost zero water intrusion, lower cabin noise and vibration, less wind and tire noise, and longer lasting consumables such as plugs, oil, tires, and filters.
It’s absolutely insane to me what a government success story auto safety regulations have been. They’re incredibly safer and yet the cost hasn’t gone crazy.
Homebuilding regulations have had somewhat of a similar success, but the costs haven't stayed level - no economies of scale in manufacturing to exploit.