Funny how humans are still playing chess when there’s no need for them to do so…
Not many humans play chess to pay their living expenses.
They could if their living expenses went to zero because everything was automated
Anthropic Chief Says AI Could Surpass 'Almost All Humans ' Shortly After 2027
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Re: Anthropic Chief Says AI Could Surpass 'Almost All Humans ' Shortly After 2027
#32Funny how humans are still playing chess when there’s no need for them to do so…
Playing chess is itself a reward. With jobs, that's not the case.
Re: Anthropic Chief Says AI Could Surpass 'Almost All Humans ' Shortly After 2027
#33Earlier quoted context omitted.
Not many humans play chess to pay their living expenses.
They could if their living expenses went to zero because everything was automated
Automation doesn’t mean life has zero cost. Even when it is extremely efficient.
And efficient machines earn for their owners. Not for the unemployed.
Also, efficiency increases the demand and price of resources. Including land.
This is especially true if there is extreme inequality, meaning a minority are benefiting from the savings and increased leverage from efficiency improvements. Increasing their lifestyles, but more significantly and endlessly, their need to compete harder with each other to maintain the value they have.
That self-reinforcing loop is already in full force. It’s just going to cycle faster.
We don’t tend to question that ever present reality in the wild, when we consider other species and individuals of other species.
For good, or ill, the human condition is about to change radically.
Re: Anthropic Chief Says AI Could Surpass 'Almost All Humans ' Shortly After 2027
#34This kind of hype is nutso. Look I use LLMs every day all day but they are assistants. They aren’t inventors or prognosticators. They cannot predict how the market will react to a product or idea. They cannot and will never be able to construct anything new outside of their training data. They’ll always need humans in the loop to come up with new interesting things and those humans will be the ones doing most of the…
Try providing the LLM the necessary context and you'll be pleasantly surprised. The problem is that we haven't created proper 'inputs' (data pipelines) into LLMs. But that is going to change this year with agents, and an entirely new software paradigm will emerge from it.
I’ll have what they’re having /s
Re: Anthropic Chief Says AI Could Surpass 'Almost All Humans ' Shortly After 2027
#35This is our future: short term growth in economy and stock markets followed by massive layoffs followed by economic crash followed by societal collapse. If you think this is all BS and you will be always smarter than any machine, realize that raw computing power grows by 10^6 every ~25 years. AI seems to follow the same growth. If you think you are safe, read what Geoffrey Hinton, one of the fathers of ML, said about…
>raw computing power grows by 10^6 every ~25 years That is really not true anymore unless there will be a new technology that can do much better than silicon electronics. Doesn't mean that were safe, but it's not that clear. Edit: to expand, a single transistor is made of a pretty pedestrian number of atoms these days. The gate pitch of TSMC "3 nm" is about 40 nm (not all of which is transistor) and silicon atoms are…
Your point is true but it is too narrow. A similar argument was bandied about regarding the CPU clock which hit a wall which was defeated with multi-cores and parallelization. The atom wall you are talking about is crushed with 3D semiconductors (hybrid bonding, wafer to wafer..., HBM), wafer scale CPUs like Cerebras, larger clusters, faster networking... Incidentally, massive parallelization suits AI just fine. Do you seriously think that computing power will stop growing? Ever?
Re: Anthropic Chief Says AI Could Surpass 'Almost All Humans ' Shortly After 2027
#36This is our future: short term growth in economy and stock markets followed by massive layoffs followed by economic crash followed by societal collapse. If you think this is all BS and you will be always smarter than any machine, realize that raw computing power grows by 10^6 every ~25 years. AI seems to follow the same growth. If you think you are safe, read what Geoffrey Hinton, one of the fathers of ML, said about…
Raw compute power won't make AGI happen.
Re: Anthropic Chief Says AI Could Surpass 'Almost All Humans ' Shortly After 2027
#37Earlier quoted context omitted.
If the power of _some_ humans depends on robots+AI, and there is a long track record of computers/vehicles being hacked, then there is economic incentive for competing humans to hack robots, including but not limited to competing AI systems. For a fictional treatment of this topic, see Jonathan Nolan's Person of Interest , which begins with one supercomputer, but ends with competing supercomputers and their competing…
> economic incentive for competing humans That's assuming there are competing humans left and economic gain to be had.
> economic gain to be had
Humans have one or two incentives beyond economics.
> assuming there are competing humans left
Indeed, one possible scenario is zero humans left.
Re: Anthropic Chief Says AI Could Surpass 'Almost All Humans ' Shortly After 2027
#38Earlier quoted context omitted.
We’ve been able to nuke one another into oblivion for decades now. Constructing robot armies to do this better but worse is a huge hassle.
How is it a hassle? The machines can build and improve on themselves. When there's very little economic reason to keep most people around. Then you just need enough force to keep people from taking what is yours and wait it out. No need to hunt anyone down indiscriminately. Plus, nukes generally have been controlled by governments and mass use of them leaves little left for those in power and a whole lot of work for…
> [nukes] mass use
Modern arsenals include a range of targetable weapons.
Hopefully the "strategies" of would-be predators are not based on AI hallucinations.
Re: Anthropic Chief Says AI Could Surpass 'Almost All Humans ' Shortly After 2027
#39This is our future: short term growth in economy and stock markets followed by massive layoffs followed by economic crash followed by societal collapse. If you think this is all BS and you will be always smarter than any machine, realize that raw computing power grows by 10^6 every ~25 years. AI seems to follow the same growth. If you think you are safe, read what Geoffrey Hinton, one of the fathers of ML, said about…
It’s not about computing power, it’s the inadequate algorithms, and ultimately the lack of scientific knowledge. Nobody has figured out how animal brains provide the plain old common sense you’d find in a fish or a frog, nor do we have any idea how to emulate that in a machine, even though in pure bits/second a 2025 supercomputer easily outperforms a frog. It’s not just robotics or 3D navigation: Veo2 still screws up object permanence, o1-pro still screws up distinguishing small quantities[1], and 99% of AI agents are simply infeasible because they have no clue what they’re doing beyond shallow pattern-matching.
[1] I imagine the same is true for o3. We simply don’t know how to make an AI that actually understands what numbers are in the way that toddlers and pigeons do.
Re: Anthropic Chief Says AI Could Surpass 'Almost All Humans ' Shortly After 2027
#40Earlier quoted context omitted.
How is it a hassle? The machines can build and improve on themselves. When there's very little economic reason to keep most people around. Then you just need enough force to keep people from taking what is yours and wait it out. No need to hunt anyone down indiscriminately. Plus, nukes generally have been controlled by governments and mass use of them leaves little left for those in power and a whole lot of work for…
> [nukes] mass use Modern arsenals include a range of targetable weapons. Hopefully the "strategies" of would-be predators are not based on AI hallucinations.
It's really helpful for discussion if you've read the article the thread is based on btw.