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Startup Winter: Hacker News Lost Its Faith

vincentschmalbach.com

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Re: Startup Winter: Hacker News Lost Its Faith

#31

Post by anovikov »

It's more because people have realised that money is easier made outside of public space (crypto projects, scripts, other things that just extract money out of thin air) rather than by building something public that needs clients, investors, and exits.

I have yet to meet a single startup billionaire but i already know at least one person who made 1B+ through scripting and several who are in 9 digit range. It's just easier there because there is no law to abide (you are anonymous by definition, and frequently a sybil of thousands if not hundreds of thousands of fake people), and no need to "sell" or be liked by anyone.

It didn't exist before ~2017 because crypto/smart contracts were not a thing yet. SEO/SEO scams existed yes, but these never brought in comparable amounts of money and traditional startups looked more attractive in comparison. Today, many people just run dozens of solana nodes, guess how much they make?

Re: Startup Winter: Hacker News Lost Its Faith

#32

Post by aleph_minus_one »

graemep wrote: post #20
aleph_minus_one wrote: post #14

Concerning > 4. The industry has matured. The low-hanging fruit of the mobile/web era has largely been picked, making truly innovative opportunities harder to find. I disagree: In my feeling truly innovative opportunities are still rather easy to find. I feel what rather changed is that with VC becoming big and mainstream, investors have become more risk-averse in investing into innovative ideas (that they don't real…

> Perhaps also society has become more conservative, so selling a really innovative product to a customer has become harder. Customers are more locked into existing products. Network effects, switching costs, familiarity and branding, staff training (for businesses) and learning something new....

I'd claim that also before the customers were locked into existing product. What is different is that in former days they were much more willing to get away from this lock-in.

The reason for this that I consider to be the most plausible one is that society has become more conservative (i.e. less willing to change things or try out new things).

Re: Startup Winter: Hacker News Lost Its Faith

#33

Post by chrisrickard »

schappim wrote: post #30

It is insane I have to say this, but this quite literally is the best time ever to start a startup. The sheer leverage that AI provides founders today is simply astounding. I have leveraged AI tools to build things I would never have been able to build just several years ago. The case in point would be it is now extremely easy to create Chrome plugins that automate aspects of my business simply by asking Claude to do…

10% agree Marcus!

Re: Startup Winter: Hacker News Lost Its Faith

#34

Post by thom »

Fairly sure the vast majority of Hacker News isn't making 300k a year in either big tech _or_ startups. Plus the author of the post mentioned wasn't some scrappy gung-ho founder trying to make it at any cost, they had Google money and one of their stories was their resentment at their cofounders forcing a $10m exit of one of the companies. No offence to them, it was an interesting journey described very openly, but it didn't sound like they were looking for a pep talk.

I suspect Hacker News is just bigger and less skewed towards Silicon Valley than it was in 2013. Maybe that changes the vibe, but I don't think anyone is (or should be) deciding whether to do a startup based on the tone of comments on an internet forum.

Re: Startup Winter: Hacker News Lost Its Faith

#35

Post by fxtentacle »

marcus_holmes wrote: post #29
mittermayr wrote: post #26

I had one product that took off, made more money than at any of my previous (big-tech) jobs, and I thought the tales were true. If you work hard enough, catch a lucky wave and have the skills to ride it, you're free. The product peaked, and then very quickly dropped to zero in about two years, while I tried everything to prevent going out of business. Back at the bottom, a year or two of aimless wandering, I figured,…

This resonates. Trying to get back into a tech job and they all need Kubernetes experience because microservices. I've spent 10 years developing MVPs that never scaled past 100 users, let alone anywhere large enough to need K8s.

You'll fit in just fine. Most of the companies that want Kubernetes also never scaled past 100 users ;)

Re: Startup Winter: Hacker News Lost Its Faith

#37

Post by mezod »

schappim wrote: post #30

It is insane I have to say this, but this quite literally is the best time ever to start a startup. The sheer leverage that AI provides founders today is simply astounding. I have leveraged AI tools to build things I would never have been able to build just several years ago. The case in point would be it is now extremely easy to create Chrome plugins that automate aspects of my business simply by asking Claude to do…

great take, do you mind to elaborate on the last point? :)

Re: Startup Winter: Hacker News Lost Its Faith

#38

Post by diggan »

KaiserPro wrote: post #17

I think the bigger issue is that most of the financial upsides of startups were illusory Unless you're a founder, you're unlikely to make any money, and predatory VC/backers using convertibles/senior debt to turn your equity into Zimbabwean dollars. Thats before any stats are calculated for lasting long enough to either IPO, make money or get bought out. As someone who did successfully exit, the stories of multiple-m…

> I think the bigger issue is that most of the financial upsides of startups were illusory

I wouldn't say I'm an old-timer by any metrics, but even back in 2012 when I first discovered and joined HN, I remember it was pretty clear in the community (and people I spoke to around me) you shouldn't go to work at a startup if you were looking for "a lot + safe" money.

Sure, you could belong to the 0.001% and work on the next Dropbox, but most likely you would end up not, so don't start at a startup to chase riches, as there are better venues for that. Do work at a startup if the environment/mission/team feels right to you, but with no expectations of a big payday-exit.

Re: Startup Winter: Hacker News Lost Its Faith

#39

Post by jajko »

benjaminwootton wrote: post #18
Temporary_31337 wrote: post #12

Pretend all you want but interest rates make a ton of difference. If you can make a safe, compounded, perhaps leveraged 5% from treasuries the financial bar that a successful startup has to pass is so much higher

Interest rates are like a dial which turns economic activity up and down. I’ve always understood that in theory but it’s the first time I’ve actually lived through it and it’s wild. A few years of higher rates and half of the tech industry and the people who buy tech seems to be on hold. It makes me realise how vacuous the last decade was and how a lot of our jobs and businesses existed because of dirt cheap money. I…

If you were older, you would still consider current rates low and recent past an obscurity that couldn't last long. I can say that definitely about Europe, ie here in Switzerland interest rates used to be around 7% for quite some time and economy was doing fine, then it dropped to negative and afterwards people complained when they rose to 1-2%. 0.4% now, not complaining.

Re: Startup Winter: Hacker News Lost Its Faith

#40

Post by chiefalchemist »

To be fair, who uses and comments on HN could have changed. HN cam be a great place but just as Wall Street isn't The Economy, HN isn't the whole of startup culture.

Interesting to read. Worth pondering. But with limits / caveats.

All that said, The Startup Industrial Complex is real. Plenty are being sucked in and spit out. That's going to impact Hearts & Minds, and comments shared.

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