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When the U.S. tried to replace migrant farmworkers with high schoolers (2018)

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Re: When the U.S. tried to replace migrant farmworkers with high schoolers (2018)

#31

Post by energy123 »

cjbgkagh wrote: post #8
Afforess wrote: post #3

Setting aside the moral component, and focusing on the economic; the Trump deportation plan is red carpet invitation for consolidation. Agriculture today is a declining mix of many medium and small growers, with a few mega growers that have increasingly concentrated their market share of output. Deportation will greatly accelerate this trend, consolidating most agriculture under a few mega growers. Small and medium s…

The Trump team has already stated they are limiting deportations to criminal illegals, so I guess just people who are in the US illegally and have committed a separate crime. This is before any real opposition has been mounted where it’s expected he’ll cave anyway. Trump is more likely to start a war with Iran than he is to do any sort of mass deportation. Also a weird thing is happening with automation, it’s getting…

Can you explain more about changes in automation in farming?

Re: When the U.S. tried to replace migrant farmworkers with high schoolers (2018)

#32

Post by somenameforme »

Afforess wrote: post #3

Setting aside the moral component, and focusing on the economic; the Trump deportation plan is red carpet invitation for consolidation. Agriculture today is a declining mix of many medium and small growers, with a few mega growers that have increasingly concentrated their market share of output. Deportation will greatly accelerate this trend, consolidating most agriculture under a few mega growers. Small and medium s…

Lots of smaller farms are family run. It's the mega farms that excessively rely on outside labor, particularly during critical seasons. They're 4.4% of farms, but 47.6% of production. There's a lot of data here. [1] I think there's a reasonable argument that deportations could instead work to decentralize things by effectively increasing labor costs. Hard to keep massive farms running (and offering cheap crops) without large labor pools willing to work for what is literally pennies per bucket of crops that they harvest.

[1] - https://www.ers.usda.gov/data-products/ag-and-food-statistic...

Re: When the U.S. tried to replace migrant farmworkers with high schoolers (2018)

#33

Post by friend_Fernando »

If you're center-left like me, here's something you might not have realized yet. The conventional wisdom is that racial cleansing is the goal and that the economic cost of mass deportations is the price. It's actually the other way around.

The economic cost is the goal. The racial cleansing is just how that cost is initially justified to the base.

Once the economy really starts heading south, blame Democrats and other phantom enemies. It's much harder to jail the opposition and overturn democracy when things are going well. The blueprints are Venezuela and Argentina.

Re: When the U.S. tried to replace migrant farmworkers with high schoolers (2018)

#34

Post by titanomachy »

friend_Fernando wrote: post #33

If you're center-left like me, here's something you might not have realized yet. The conventional wisdom is that racial cleansing is the goal and that the economic cost of mass deportations is the price. It's actually the other way around. The economic cost is the goal . The racial cleansing is just how that cost is initially justified to the base. Once the economy really starts heading south, blame Democrats and oth…

You’re saying that the advocates of deportation are aiming to intentionally destroy the economy so that they can increase their political power?

That seems less likely to me than either simple racism or a poor understanding of economics.

Re: When the U.S. tried to replace migrant farmworkers with high schoolers (2018)

#35

Post by galleywest200 »

LAC-Tech wrote: post #20

is "Migrant" a euphemism here for "illegal migrant"? If your business needs illegal labour, then it's not a viable business, and it should die. If your pay is so low that no one wants to do your work, why should you be able to break the law with impunity because your business can't compete? Innovate, or die.

Road construction could come to a halt in some portions of the US. It is estimated that ~13% of all construction workers in the US are undocumented. I would be willing to bet they are more concentrated in certain states (Texas).

https://www.axios.com/2024/11/19/undocumented-workers-immigr...

Re: When the U.S. tried to replace migrant farmworkers with high schoolers (2018)

#36

Post by [deleted] »

ipnon wrote: post #10
cpach wrote: post #5

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Are you sure you have the direction of causation right there?

Well, respectfully speaking, if you have more firsthand knowledge of this industry than I do, and have a point to make other than merely calling my experience in the subject in to question, then I will entertain that I might have things backward. But I suspect between the two of us, I know more about it than you do, because I've been in the fields myself.

[deleted]

Re: When the U.S. tried to replace migrant farmworkers with high schoolers (2018)

#37

Post by titanomachy »

mmooss wrote: post #27

Interesting it was in 1965, around the time of the Cultural Revolution in China which forced masses of non-working class people to leave the cities and work on farms. (I'm not certain of the exact timing of the farm labor program in China.)

Similar, except the teenagers were allowed to quit.

Re: When the U.S. tried to replace migrant farmworkers with high schoolers (2018)

#38

Post by Terr_ »

cjbgkagh wrote: post #8
Afforess wrote: post #3

Setting aside the moral component, and focusing on the economic; the Trump deportation plan is red carpet invitation for consolidation. Agriculture today is a declining mix of many medium and small growers, with a few mega growers that have increasingly concentrated their market share of output. Deportation will greatly accelerate this trend, consolidating most agriculture under a few mega growers. Small and medium s…

The Trump team has already stated they are limiting deportations to criminal illegals, so I guess just people who are in the US illegally and have committed a separate crime. This is before any real opposition has been mounted where it’s expected he’ll cave anyway. Trump is more likely to start a war with Iran than he is to do any sort of mass deportation. Also a weird thing is happening with automation, it’s getting…

> The Trump team has already stated they are limiting deportations to criminal illegals

The same one Trump promised would be "the largest deportation program in American history"?

We've already had years of the Trumposphere emitting contradictory bullshit, and whenever you are considering an entity that that does not care about truth or honesty or ethics, it's sensible to assume that the outcome will be less than good.

Re: When the U.S. tried to replace migrant farmworkers with high schoolers (2018)

#39

Post by friend_Fernando »

titanomachy wrote: post #34
friend_Fernando wrote: post #33

If you're center-left like me, here's something you might not have realized yet. The conventional wisdom is that racial cleansing is the goal and that the economic cost of mass deportations is the price. It's actually the other way around. The economic cost is the goal . The racial cleansing is just how that cost is initially justified to the base. Once the economy really starts heading south, blame Democrats and oth…

You’re saying that the advocates of deportation are aiming to intentionally destroy the economy so that they can increase their political power? That seems less likely to me than either simple racism or a poor understanding of economics.

Obviously not all the advocates share that goal - that's the whole point. Most people would not be OK with intentionally trashing the economy to overturn democracy. It's a camouflaged poison pill policy.

Here are two other Russian proxies achieving totalitarianism. Economically, they're not doing it by racking up pats on the back:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Crisis_in_Venezuela

https://www.imf.org/external/datamapper/PPPPC@WEO/VEN

https://apnews.com/article/argentina-economy-crisis-javier-m...

Re: When the U.S. tried to replace migrant farmworkers with high schoolers (2018)

#40

Post by LAC-Tech »

galleywest200 wrote: post #35
LAC-Tech wrote: post #20

is "Migrant" a euphemism here for "illegal migrant"? If your business needs illegal labour, then it's not a viable business, and it should die. If your pay is so low that no one wants to do your work, why should you be able to break the law with impunity because your business can't compete? Innovate, or die.

Road construction could come to a halt in some portions of the US. It is estimated that ~13% of all construction workers in the US are undocumented. I would be willing to bet they are more concentrated in certain states (Texas). https://www.axios.com/2024/11/19/undocumented-workers-immigr...

But who will build the roads?

Sorry, just trying to summon libertarians.

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