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Exploring the Cost and Feasibility of Battery-Electric Ships

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Re: Exploring the Cost and Feasibility of Battery-Electric Ships

#31
> The researchers analyzed US-flagged ships less than 1,000 gross tonnage, which includes primarily passenger ships and three types of tugboats.

This is the buried lede. They are excluding basically all cargo shipping.

- Very little of the shipping industry is US-flagged. Most commercial ships sail under flags of convenience such as Panama and Libera, because of their reduced regulations and costs.

- Nobody carries cargo any distance in vessels of less than 1000 gross tons, because that scale would be uneconomical to operate. Modern seagoing cargo ships have about one crew member per 8000 tons of cargo.

Re: Exploring the Cost and Feasibility of Battery-Electric Ships

#32

> The researchers analyzed US-flagged ships less than 1,000 gross tonnage, which includes primarily passenger ships and three types of tugboats. This is the buried lede. They are excluding basically all cargo shipping. - Very little of the shipping industry is US-flagged. Most commercial ships sail under flags of convenience such as Panama and Libera, because of their reduced regulations and costs. - Nobody carries c…

~40% of cargo tonnage is moving fossil fuels (coal, oil, gas) around [1] [2]. I would expect this volume to decline as the global energy transition continues to ramp. China's economy and EVs are already depressing global oil prices [3] [4] [5], for example. Also consider global decoupling and repatriating of supply chains [6] [7].

My analysis: We're potentially going to require much less marine transport capacity in the future. How much of that can be electrified is the question, imho (versus "green ammonia" produced from low carbon energy [8]).

[1] https://thelastdriverlicenseholder.com/2022/01/12/almost-40-...

[2] https://unctad.org/system/files/official-document/rmt2019_en...

[3] https://www.iea.org/commentaries/china-s-slowdown-is-weighin...

[4] https://theprogressplaybook.com/2024/09/18/chinas-ev-and-hig...

[5] https://www.energypolicy.columbia.edu/chinas-slowing-oil-dem...

[6] https://www.axios.com/2024/11/14/companies-global-trade-chin...

[7] https://www.bain.com/about/media-center/press-releases/2024/...

[8] https://hn.algolia.com/?dateRange=all&page=0&prefix=false&qu...

Re: Exploring the Cost and Feasibility of Battery-Electric Ships

#33
post #2

Ferry service in the Puget Sound (Seattle Area) has suffered due to delays with electric ferries. The state refuses to maintain their existing fleet. Every line has frequent delays, and the international route which was suspended for “a couple years” in 2021 is now delayed until 2030. The frustration people have with electric isn’t the technology – it’s the dogmatic commitment to technology that isn’t quite ready, ba…

I don't know what you mean by dogmatic. Alternatives to electric are still the primary workhorses in most industries, but falling prices for batteries mean they are rapidly becoming more competitive.

My experience is that people don't have a good grasp of how effective electric is, and think it's somehow worse than the alternatives and winning via subsidies, which is not really the case today. Likewise for things like solar.

I imagine many businesses are hoping to put off their next replacement cycles for more effective, cheaper technology rather than incur big Capex expenses on soon to be obsolete and more expensive technologies.

Re: Exploring the Cost and Feasibility of Battery-Electric Ships

#34
post #3

Wow, this is a really good paper. Supplementary info is really great too- they get into details down to floating charging port stations as part of the infrastructure. Surprising how much demand is from tugboats. I have questions about how you'd safely hook up 5 MW connections, but it's definitely solvable.

Tugboats are a perfect use for battery electric boats! Most tugs work close to a port, they don't need to travel very far, need to be extraordinarily powerful for their size, and they need to change power output rapidly to manoeuvre a ship.

A harbour tug internally is almost entirely engine. Well, two engines, because an engine failure during tug operations is almost always disastrous.

Re: Exploring the Cost and Feasibility of Battery-Electric Ships

#35

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There are IEC 60309 industrial power connectors that can handle 8MW (1000V, 800A). There are also power connectors for cruise ships while they are in dock that handle lots of power. It looks like they use IEC 80005 for shore power. It looks like it is AC only but probably could be made to use DC.

Isn't that 0.8MW?

8001000=800,000. (81 and 5 zeros).

looks like 800kW to me. Nice catch.

Re: Exploring the Cost and Feasibility of Battery-Electric Ships

#36

> The researchers analyzed US-flagged ships less than 1,000 gross tonnage, which includes primarily passenger ships and three types of tugboats. This is the buried lede. They are excluding basically all cargo shipping. - Very little of the shipping industry is US-flagged. Most commercial ships sail under flags of convenience such as Panama and Libera, because of their reduced regulations and costs. - Nobody carries c…

Although the US isn't a member of one of the various large port state organisations it is enormous, and it has a lot of coast, so the US Coast Guard effectively acts as a Port State Control authority the way that say the Paris MOU or Tokyo MOU do, but with potentially less friction because instead of Spain and Germany or Japan and Australia having to agree what happens it's just Florida and New York, which are ultimately both responsible to the US Federal government.

If you have a Port State Control regime then the Flag State Control doesn't matter so much and so while it's true that most of these ships do not fly a US flag, they're not really sailing under a foreign flag for the reason you expect. A big reason instead is that these states have an Open Registry, which means everybody in the world can put a ship on their register. To fly the US flag, the ship's owners must be Americans.

Why doesn't Flag State matter so much (if you have PSC) ? Because the port states in effect control regulations if you visit their port, and unless your vessel somehow makes sense just pootling around in the ocean forever you will want to visit a port and thus be subject to their rules. Now, if that port doesn't have Port State Control, which fifty years ago none of them did, the Flag State is the only authority, but in 1978 the Europeans are agreeing rules to protect workers on ships in their water when blam - a shipping accident off the French coast causes world headlines. So of course journalists want to know, you're agreeing a treaty, how will your treaty fix this? And the bald answer for the intended treaty text was "It makes no difference, fuck off". But there are international journalists up in your grill and you've been telling everybody how important your treaty is and so... Port State Control, the Paris MOU is signed a few years later to formalize how Europe's states will coordinate to police everybody, regardless of the flag they're flying, if they enter a port.

The Paris MOU was a huge success, and soon anywhere with money imitated it. Tokyo MOU, there's a Carribean one, Indian Ocean, Black Sea... Anywhere you'd actually deliberately sail cargo ships to has Port State Control these days.

So yes, this does exclude all the cargo shipping, but not really because of the flag, it's because the cargo ships are enormous and so fall out of the size restriction.

Re: Exploring the Cost and Feasibility of Battery-Electric Ships

#37

> The researchers analyzed US-flagged ships less than 1,000 gross tonnage, which includes primarily passenger ships and three types of tugboats. This is the buried lede. They are excluding basically all cargo shipping. - Very little of the shipping industry is US-flagged. Most commercial ships sail under flags of convenience such as Panama and Libera, because of their reduced regulations and costs. - Nobody carries c…

Hah, if we're only going to talk only about tiny US ships, run them on whale oil for all I care.

Seems to me the 80/20 here would be to attack the problem near the top of the stack, not the bottom. Those massive heavy fuel oil burning container ships that basically just smog the ocean 24/7 might be a good target for improvements; as well as just general code enforcement.

Re: Exploring the Cost and Feasibility of Battery-Electric Ships

#38

> The researchers analyzed US-flagged ships less than 1,000 gross tonnage, which includes primarily passenger ships and three types of tugboats. This is the buried lede. They are excluding basically all cargo shipping. - Very little of the shipping industry is US-flagged. Most commercial ships sail under flags of convenience such as Panama and Libera, because of their reduced regulations and costs. - Nobody carries c…

Hah, if we're only going to talk only about tiny US ships, run them on whale oil for all I care. Seems to me the 80/20 here would be to attack the problem near the top of the stack, not the bottom. Those massive heavy fuel oil burning container ships that basically just smog the ocean 24/7 might be a good target for improvements; as well as just general code enforcement.

For now it seems the improvements (sulphur regulations) only made the situation worse, in term of climate change.

Re: Exploring the Cost and Feasibility of Battery-Electric Ships

#39
post #24

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Here is the largest e-ferry: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/E-ferry_Ellen Norway's largest e-ferry is three times larger. https://www.electrive.com/2021/03/02/worlds-largest-electric...

According to your link (and all other articles I found on that vessel), that ferry is capable of operating all-electric, but actually operating as a hybrid.

Although the news at that time was about delivery of a first electric ferry, that was 2021 and things change. The Ferry company's web site says now it has three electric ferries as a result of conversions and indeed they charge at both ends of the route. It's in Norwegian but the translation looks reasonable to me.

Re: Exploring the Cost and Feasibility of Battery-Electric Ships

#40

I support this idea but I stopped reading when the costs factored included the social costs of CO2 emissions. which I'm sure are important, but shipping operates on the actual cost of fuel and equipment, until CO2 tax is in that aren't we just making up economics? They're also factoring in the value of the batteries second life, which seems at best, speculative. ships should be electric, they're filthy to be around w…

The reason those generators run is because the cargo requires them, or ships would not be able to take anything refrigerated or frozen, removing a large part of very profitable cargo from them. If the power to those boxes fails for a long enough period of time the load is completely destroyed.

Ships use power for all sorts of things. Steering, ventilation fans, and water pumps just to name a few. Motor power is only a fraction of what a boat can do, and most boats connect a generator to the main shaft, because the power is more important than the motive force.

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