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When did estimates turn into deadlines?

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Re: When did estimates turn into deadlines?

#31

Post by brookst »

tyingq wrote: post #27

"Can you imagine if the insurance company started arguing with the repair shop, asking them—no—telling them that they would only pay the $18,000 and not the additional $20,000 because that was the original estimate? Does that sound ridiculous to you? It does to me, too. Thank heavens, reality does not operate like this." That happens all the time with insurance. I'm surprised at the confident tone in "reality does no…

It depends on whether we're talking about estimates or negotiated rates.

In the latter (also called "preferred rates" for auto insurance) there's a blanket agreement that all work of a certain type is to be billed at a fixed, negotiated rate.

That is VERY different from a binding estimate, which typically means a one-off estimate for a specific job where the estimator takes the risk and promises to complete the work at the rate, even if it's much more complicated than they bargained for.

Re: When did estimates turn into deadlines?

#32

Post by ikiris »

dhosek wrote: post #25
floren wrote: post #3

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Kirk: Mr. Scott. Have you always multiplied your repair estimates by a factor of four? > Scotty: Certainly, sir. How else can I keep my reputation as a miracle worker?

There’s a whole generation of developers who have internalized this.

There’s a whole generation of management who have caused this due to their own behavior.

Re: When did estimates turn into deadlines?

#33

Post by neom »

That's cool that they went to Sokcho!! Not many people go to Sokcho but imo it's the best city in Korea, the vibes there are on point, nobody really speaks English and it's pretty dead for the most part, but I really love Sokcho for the vibes, it's maybe the place i've felt the most at peace in my life. If you ever get the chance, I recommend Sokcho. :)

Re: When did estimates turn into deadlines?

#35

Post by kareemm »

stevage wrote: post #30

I definitely relate to the basic issue of estimates with my one-person consulting projects. The bit they didn't mention is: who pays for the cost of the inspections and analysis? In software, it can take a long time to analyse the requirements and the solution, in order to come up with an estimate (or fixed quote), and I find it awkward trying to get paid for that time.

Do a roadmap. Fixed scope small project that you get paid for where you define requirements. Deliverable is a functional requirements doc. It derisks the project for them, and gives you more confidence when quoting a fixed scope fixed price project. You just don’t guarantee timeline. I’ve been doing it for over a decade - it works wonders.

Re: When did estimates turn into deadlines?

#36

Post by wglb »

In my direct personal experience, for me it was 1969 during my first major gig. I remember one project, called the March 1 system, that slowly came into being sometime that October, if my memory serves me correctly. There was tension, of course. This was exacerbated by having to work nights to get access to the system to continue development.

I eventually learned, when asked for a "quick" estimate, I would give something drastically longer than I knew would be accepted. I said "But I can give you a better estimate if you give me a few days to do a better plan." This always got me the extra time to provide an estimate.

Re: When did estimates turn into deadlines?

#37

Post by renewiltord »

These are all just tricks to reduce cost and make sure you get things done. You have competing constraints:

# You need to align the rest of your team on things: maybe you have marketing tied to real world events, you're hiring and training to a sales cycle. If you do it wrong you waste money

# You need to fight scope creep which happens with unbounded timelines

# You need to fight a minimal product that's not viable because it isn't done enough for your market

and more. The ideal is for the decision maker to constantly have full information on progress and make instantaneous minute adjustments to keep things going at full steam. But there's no way to have full information and there's no way to make instantaneous minute adjustments if you're not a one-man shop. So everything else comes from the organizational effort of trying to work with that.

Re: When did estimates turn into deadlines?

#38

Post by stevage »

kareemm wrote: post #35
stevage wrote: post #30

I definitely relate to the basic issue of estimates with my one-person consulting projects. The bit they didn't mention is: who pays for the cost of the inspections and analysis? In software, it can take a long time to analyse the requirements and the solution, in order to come up with an estimate (or fixed quote), and I find it awkward trying to get paid for that time.

Do a roadmap. Fixed scope small project that you get paid for where you define requirements. Deliverable is a functional requirements doc. It derisks the project for them, and gives you more confidence when quoting a fixed scope fixed price project. You just don’t guarantee timeline. I’ve been doing it for over a decade - it works wonders.

What is the total cost of these projects and how much are you typically charging for the requirements doc?

I'm skeptical that most of the clients I work with would go for something like this. Generally my projects are in the $7k-20k USD range (though with some clients the total spend is much greater with additional phases of work...)

Also, what do you mean "you just don't guarantee timeline"? Why not?

Re: When did estimates turn into deadlines?

#40

Post by albert_e »

when an external / vendor team picks a project...

estimates = contract amount = project budget ...

it is hard for a project team to negotiate later

often the estimates need to be competitive or bottom most for you to win the contract

no one acknowledges the unknown and risks at the beginning of the project

writing down more than 4-5 risks along with the bid amount is taken as a sign of a team that will not be easy to work with and fight over every bullet point whether something is in scope or a change request

and often the one who estimates and wins the project may not be on the actual project team with delivery accountability

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