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BP abandons goal to cut oil output, resets strategy

reuters.com

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Re: BP abandons goal to cut oil output, resets strategy

#31

Post by palata »

schiffern wrote: post #10
imglorp wrote: post #6

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That saying that goes, we are the only species that will become extinct because survival wasn't profitable enough. To the systems point we really, really really, really really need to stop subsidizing fossil fuels to 7 trillion a year globally. We have to stop making it profitable and encouraged by the system. https://www.imf.org/en/Blogs/Articles/2023/08/24/fossil-fuel...

> we are the only species that will become extinct because survival wasn't profitable enough This a very good quip, but I have to ponder: how could we know that for sure? If some other species had a comparable concept used to organize themselves, I doubt humans would even be aware of that nuance.

Well because other species don't manage to break the barriers as efficiently as we do.

The way regulation works is that species are limited by their environment. If there are many antelopes, there can be many lions. But if there are two many lions, the population of antelopes goes down to the point where not all the lions can survive, right? This is simplistic, but that's the idea (the higher the population, the bigger the impact of a disease, etc).

Because we are really good at changing our environment in order to be more individuals who consume more resources, we escape those regulation mechanisms. By doing this, we destroy most species, including ours.

Now let's not pretend that ants would be better: if they somehow escaped those mechanisms, they wouldn't suddenly vote and stop growing (presumably). The fact is that they haven't escaped them, and we have. Well for a while. Now it's very likely that some kind of mechanism will end up regulating us. Maybe it will finish destroying most species, and it will take thousands of years to "recover" (with some definition of "recover").

What's interesting with us is that we do know we are destroying ourselves and the biodiversity (which is arguably one of the enjoyable things in life), but we can't seem to find a way to fix it.

Re: BP abandons goal to cut oil output, resets strategy

#32

Post by passwordoops »

linkjuice4all wrote: post #8

It's depressing to see companies moving back towards a carbon-burning future. It seemed like electric vehicles, battery technology, and solar power advancement was finally starting to kill the market for ICE engines and 'dirty' thermal power. Between reversions like this, RTO mandates, and global conflicts that seem to include blowing up oil refineries it seems like there's absolutely no hope or interest from any maj…

1-it's not companies, it's nation-states such as China and all across the "developing" world making the economic decision to use the cheapest, most easily accessible and reliable energy source (still fossil). And anyone providing examples of "yes, but..." should include an verifiable explanation as to why GHG emissions are not only increasing but accelerating

2- Carbon is much more than energy. Take a look at medicine, for example. Remove plastics, the field as we know it stops. Stop the flow of primary feedstock from refineries and no more medicines. Coal is another excellent example. You can replace as many coal plants as you want with renewables, you still need it to make the high-grade steel required to manufacture the renewables. Which is one reason why China is digging up more coal per year than any country ever had since the Industrial Revolution.

Re: BP abandons goal to cut oil output, resets strategy

#33

Post by kieranmaine »

linkjuice4all wrote: post #8

It's depressing to see companies moving back towards a carbon-burning future. It seemed like electric vehicles, battery technology, and solar power advancement was finally starting to kill the market for ICE engines and 'dirty' thermal power. Between reversions like this, RTO mandates, and global conflicts that seem to include blowing up oil refineries it seems like there's absolutely no hope or interest from any maj…

A counterpoint to your last sentence:

From "Indonesia’s coal producers diversify as money for mining dries up" - https://www.ft.com/content/9546f590-2fb0-4939-a090-8bac7ba6a...

"In recent years, foreign banks have largely stopped financing coal operations, with Indonesian companies primarily securing financing from domestic institutions"

Re: BP abandons goal to cut oil output, resets strategy

#34

Post by baanist »

palata wrote: post #31
schiffern wrote: post #10

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> we are the only species that will become extinct because survival wasn't profitable enough This a very good quip, but I have to ponder: how could we know that for sure? If some other species had a comparable concept used to organize themselves, I doubt humans would even be aware of that nuance.

Well because other species don't manage to break the barriers as efficiently as we do. The way regulation works is that species are limited by their environment. If there are many antelopes, there can be many lions. But if there are two many lions, the population of antelopes goes down to the point where not all the lions can survive, right? This is simplistic, but that's the idea (the higher the population, the bigg…

Most of what you've said is true but what exactly does it mean to "break barriers"? We can not escape the laws of chemistry, physics, and thermodynamics because we live on a compact manifold with finite resources which must be recycled eventually by the surrounding ecology. This is why plastics are now found in all newborns, the chemicals produced by our factories are recycled back into the ecology and our internal biomes.

Re: BP abandons goal to cut oil output, resets strategy

#35

Post by jvanderbot »

imglorp wrote: post #6
schiffern wrote: post #4

Pioneering systems theorist Donella Meadows makes a highly salient point. The problem with BP isn't because there are "bad people" at the top, and the solution isn't to replace them with "good people." The problem is that the decision-makers are constrained to act a certain way . If they made different decisions then.... those people won't be the decision-makers anymore! The same is true for politicians, consumers, e…

That saying that goes, we are the only species that will become extinct because survival wasn't profitable enough. To the systems point we really, really really, really really need to stop subsidizing fossil fuels to 7 trillion a year globally. We have to stop making it profitable and encouraged by the system. https://www.imf.org/en/Blogs/Articles/2023/08/24/fossil-fuel...

I'm reading "The Unthinkable". It's a great book about diaster response at the personal and policy level.

One thing that stands out is that well intentioned policies often cause diaster if they don't simply trust the ability of humans (and by extension communities) to adapt and incorporate new information as it comes.

I believe that these subsidies are a prime example. They intend to help by alleviating the shock of world events, and it's only through an increase in trust/courage at all levels that we can overcome this tendency.

Re: BP abandons goal to cut oil output, resets strategy

#36

Post by oblio »

buzzy_hacker wrote: post #27
imglorp wrote: post #6

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That saying that goes, we are the only species that will become extinct because survival wasn't profitable enough. To the systems point we really, really really, really really need to stop subsidizing fossil fuels to 7 trillion a year globally. We have to stop making it profitable and encouraged by the system. https://www.imf.org/en/Blogs/Articles/2023/08/24/fossil-fuel...

> subsidizing fossil fuels to 7 trillion a year globally This is misleading. See https://www.slowboring.com/i/145942190/the-case-of-the-myste... > The vast majority of the “subsidies” are “implicit subsidies,” which include “undercharging for environmental costs.” In other words, they are characterizing governments’ failure to impose a carbon tax as a “subsidy” for fossil fuel use.

Not paying for pollution we know they cause is an implicit subsidy, feels quite obvious.

Re: BP abandons goal to cut oil output, resets strategy

#37

Post by Dylan16807 »

passwordoops wrote: post #32
linkjuice4all wrote: post #8

It's depressing to see companies moving back towards a carbon-burning future. It seemed like electric vehicles, battery technology, and solar power advancement was finally starting to kill the market for ICE engines and 'dirty' thermal power. Between reversions like this, RTO mandates, and global conflicts that seem to include blowing up oil refineries it seems like there's absolutely no hope or interest from any maj…

1-it's not companies, it's nation-states such as China and all across the "developing" world making the economic decision to use the cheapest, most easily accessible and reliable energy source (still fossil). And anyone providing examples of "yes, but..." should include an verifiable explanation as to why GHG emissions are not only increasing but accelerating 2- Carbon is much more than energy. Take a look at medicin…

2 - The vast majority is being burned. If they want to increase production, it's not because of the other uses.

Re: BP abandons goal to cut oil output, resets strategy

#38

Post by nomel »

bamboozled wrote: post #20
linkjuice4all wrote: post #8

It's depressing to see companies moving back towards a carbon-burning future. It seemed like electric vehicles, battery technology, and solar power advancement was finally starting to kill the market for ICE engines and 'dirty' thermal power. Between reversions like this, RTO mandates, and global conflicts that seem to include blowing up oil refineries it seems like there's absolutely no hope or interest from any maj…

It's not just depressing, it's ruinous. We will be ruined as a species from this. I'm still pressing a head with my personal contribution by cladding our new house in panels!

This is an unpopular question, where people assume things about me, but by what mechanism would the human species be ruined? It seems that would require that all innovation towards climate mitigations stops, when it hasn't really even started yet. Reversing climate change probably isn't going to happen, but mitigation is still on the table, from routing fresh water from wetter northern climates to desalinization plants [1] to sun shading [2].

[1] Desalinization, where 300 million are currently services: https://www.usgs.gov/special-topics/water-science-school/sci...

[2] Block 2% to reduce warming by 1.5C. https://www.carbonbrief.org/explainer-six-ideas-to-limit-glo...

Re: BP abandons goal to cut oil output, resets strategy

#39

Post by animal_spirits »

cortesoft wrote: post #17
tw04 wrote: post #7

> as investors focused on near-term returns rather than the energy transition. If the justification for burning the earth to the ground continues to be “investors focused on short term returns” then governments need to start telling companies like BP they are legally and financially responsible for the effects those policies have on insurance rates and everything else. At some point if they can’t do the right thing b…

The way to do this is to price in the effect of the transactions on global climate. The reason the market will never solve this issue is because the cost is an externality; if we made it so every good sold included the cost to offset the damage to the environment, the market could address this issue.

These are called effluent taxes and should be part of the talk around climate change and government.

https://www.encyclopedia.com/environment/encyclopedias-alman...

Re: BP abandons goal to cut oil output, resets strategy

#40

Post by bawana »

In 'The War Below' by Ernest Scheyder, I learned about the complexities of mining companies profiteering vs the rights of 'the land' as represented by the indigenous people and environmental activists. This is another example of how we use our knowledge to eviscerate the planet's resources developed over millenia for short term gains and enjoyment. And if you thought the oncoming demographic bomb and population collapse in the US, Europe, China and Japan will reduce demand, think again. The 0.1% who own this planet, will simply produce AI driven robots to do the work that humans cannot so they can continue to fly their jets and cruise in their yachts. How can we be so complacent when religious fanatics elsewhere are killing each other over so much less?
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