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The Intelligence Age

ia.samaltman.com

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Re: The Intelligence Age

#31

Post by swyx »

sharkjacobs wrote: post #22
sharkjacobs wrote: post #20

> Deep learning works, and we will solve the remaining problems. We can say a lot of things about what may happen next, but the main one is that AI is going to get better with scale I'm not an AI skeptic at all, I use llms all the time, and find them very useful. But stuff like this makes me very skeptical of the people who are making and selling AI. It seems like there was a really sweet spot wrt the capabilities AI…

> we will solve the remaining problems This is the part that really gets me. This is a thing that you say to your team, and a thing you say to your investors, but this isn't a thing that you can actually believe with certainty is it?

you need some amount of irrational definite optimism + knowing things others dont to be a good founder. that kind of reality distortion field is why sam is sam and we are here debating phrases on an orange website.

Re: The Intelligence Age

#32

Post by codingwagie »

“This may turn out to be the most consequential fact about all of history so far. It is possible that we will have superintelligence in a few thousand days (!); it may take longer, but I’m confident we’ll get there.”

I am a believer that people like sam are not lying. Anyone using these models daily probably believes the same. The o1 model, if prompted correctly, can architect a code base in a way that my decade+ of premium software experience cannot. Prompted incorrectly, it looks incompetent. The abilities of the future are already here, you just need to know how to use the models.

Re: The Intelligence Age

#33

Post by bbor »

kazcaptain wrote: post #10

The most interesting bit I find is the time period mentioned until super-intelligence: “thousands of days (!)” aka 6-9 years or more? With the current hype wave it feels like we’re almost there but this piece makes me think we’re not.

Yeah, that's my number one question, too. Sure, he happened to be appointed the manager of the team who cracked intuitive algorithms through deep learning, but what does he know about superintelligence? IMO that's a completely separate question, and "foundation models continue to improve" is absolutely not related to whether or not an intelligence explosion is guaranteed or not. I'd trust someone like Yudkowsky way more on this, or really anyone who has engaged with academic literature on the subjects of intentionality, receptive vs. spontaneous reasoning, or really any academic literature of any kind...

Does anyone know if he's published thoughts on any serious lit? So far I've just seen him play the "I know stuff you don't because I get to see behind the scenes" card over and over, which seems a little dubious at this point. I was convinced they would announce AGI in December 2023, so I'm far from a hater! It just seems clear that they're/he's guessing at this point, rather than reporting or reasoning.

Really he assumes two huge breakthroughs, both of which I find plausible but far from guaranteed:

   With nearly-limitless intelligence and abundant energy

Re: The Intelligence Age

#34

Post by AnimalMuppet »

sharkjacobs wrote: post #20

> Deep learning works, and we will solve the remaining problems. We can say a lot of things about what may happen next, but the main one is that AI is going to get better with scale I'm not an AI skeptic at all, I use llms all the time, and find them very useful. But stuff like this makes me very skeptical of the people who are making and selling AI. It seems like there was a really sweet spot wrt the capabilities AI…

Even "we will solve the remaining problems" is... perhaps unduly optimistic.

At a minimum, we could ask for the evidence.

Re: The Intelligence Age

#35

Post by schmidtleonard »

tikkun wrote: post #25

> We need to act wisely but with conviction. Reminds me of these quotes from Sam on this podcast episode ( https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KfuVSg-VJxE ) * "Prudence without fear" (Sam referencing another quote) * "if you create the descendants of humanity from a place of, deep fear and panic and anxiety, that seems to me you're likely to make some very bad choices or certainly not reflect the best of humanity." * "th…

Easy for him to say: AI is almost guaranteed to hand a massive W to capital and L to labor. He is holding a title to rule over hell in one hand and promising to lead us to heaven with the other.

Re: The Intelligence Age

#36

Post by codingwagie »

schmidtleonard wrote: post #35
tikkun wrote: post #25

> We need to act wisely but with conviction. Reminds me of these quotes from Sam on this podcast episode ( https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KfuVSg-VJxE ) * "Prudence without fear" (Sam referencing another quote) * "if you create the descendants of humanity from a place of, deep fear and panic and anxiety, that seems to me you're likely to make some very bad choices or certainly not reflect the best of humanity." * "th…

Easy for him to say: AI is almost guaranteed to hand a massive W to capital and L to labor. He is holding a title to rule over hell in one hand and promising to lead us to heaven with the other.

Actually not sure about this, with the leverage of AI, its easier than ever to start a company

Re: The Intelligence Age

#37

Post by [deleted] »

swyx wrote: post #31
sharkjacobs wrote: post #22

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> we will solve the remaining problems This is the part that really gets me. This is a thing that you say to your team, and a thing you say to your investors, but this isn't a thing that you can actually believe with certainty is it?

you need some amount of irrational definite optimism + knowing things others dont to be a good founder. that kind of reality distortion field is why sam is sam and we are here debating phrases on an orange website.

[deleted]

Re: The Intelligence Age

#38

Post by famouswaffles »

sharkjacobs wrote: post #20

> Deep learning works, and we will solve the remaining problems. We can say a lot of things about what may happen next, but the main one is that AI is going to get better with scale I'm not an AI skeptic at all, I use llms all the time, and find them very useful. But stuff like this makes me very skeptical of the people who are making and selling AI. It seems like there was a really sweet spot wrt the capabilities AI…

Scaling Improvement has never been Linear though. Every next gen model so far has required at least an order of magnitude increase in compute, sometimes several more. So it's not a new revelation and these companies are aware of that. Microsoft for instance is building a 100B data center for a future next generation model releasing in 2028.

If models genuinely keep making similar leaps each generation then we're still a few generations before "More than a Microsoft".

Re: The Intelligence Age

#39

Post by nyrulez »

sharkjacobs wrote: post #20

> Deep learning works, and we will solve the remaining problems. We can say a lot of things about what may happen next, but the main one is that AI is going to get better with scale I'm not an AI skeptic at all, I use llms all the time, and find them very useful. But stuff like this makes me very skeptical of the people who are making and selling AI. It seems like there was a really sweet spot wrt the capabilities AI…

It's about stuff we don't know yet. From today's lens, the essay seems absurd. But I think it's hinging on continued discoveries that improve one or all of learning algorithms, compute efficiency, compute cost and applying algorithms to real world problems better.

5 years ago, I wouldn't have believed any of what exists today. I saw internal demos that showed 2nd or 3rd grade reading comprehension in 2017 and statements were made about how in the next decade, we will probably reach college level comprehension. We have come so far beyond that in less than half the time. Technology isn't about scaling incrementally and continuing on the same path using the same principles we know today. It's about disruption that felt impossible before - that feels like a constant to me now. Seeing everything I've seen in the last 20 years, it's going to continue to happen. We just can't see it yet.

Re: The Intelligence Age

#40

Post by schmidtleonard »

codingwagie wrote: post #36
schmidtleonard wrote: post #35

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Easy for him to say: AI is almost guaranteed to hand a massive W to capital and L to labor. He is holding a title to rule over hell in one hand and promising to lead us to heaven with the other.

Actually not sure about this, with the leverage of AI, its easier than ever to start a company

Sam Altman has a guarantee. Most people on HN have a chance. Most people have neither.
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