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Japan on edge of EUV lithography chip-making revolution

asiatimes.com

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Re: Japan on edge of EUV lithography chip-making revolution

#31

Post by coliveira »

legacynl wrote: post #10
roenxi wrote: post #2

Will this attempt work out commercially? Maybe, maybe not. But more interesting here is the strategic situation beyond the currently understood tech. The US has made it clear that it sees semiconductors as a vector to attack power centres in Asia. Today it is China. Democracies are notoriously fickle, tomorrow it could be India, Japan, Korea or anyone really. There is a strategic need here to break the remaining Euro…

> Democracies are notoriously fickle, are they really though? At least in democracies things require oversight, debates and people are being held responsible. It's exactly authoritarian regimes that can turn on a dime, if the supreme leader feels like it.

Your description of democracy doesn't match with existing capitalism. In capitalism, what matters is the individual capitalist desire to achieve profits. The economic decisions are made by a few oligarchs on top, not by the population.

Re: Japan on edge of EUV lithography chip-making revolution

#32

Post by mlyle »

alephnerd wrote: post #19
adrian_b wrote: post #18

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The yield rate by itself is not very relevant. It also matters which are the energy and materials consumption, the occupied floor area and the acquisition and maintenance prices associated with that yield. When all those are small enough, it may be worthwhile to replace a big and expensive fast machine with many smaller and cheaper slow machines.

Fair point! That said, 10% reduction in power is decent along with the reduction in mirrors, but it would still take some effort for an attempt like this to be cost competitive compared to licensing from ASML.

90% reduction in power.

Re: Japan on edge of EUV lithography chip-making revolution

#33

Post by mensetmanusman »

coliveira wrote: post #29
cherryteastain wrote: post #7

Canon and Nikon are also working on alternatives such as nanoimprint lithography [1]. Chinese universities and companies are working on particle accelerator based EUV sources [2]. Question is, will they be able to actually commercialize it before ASML manages to get improved versions of their current litho machines out the door? Commercialization of a technology like this can easily take 5-10 years, and ASML aren't t…

If you consider that China is unable to get ASML equipment, they have strong incentive to improve on this technology immediately. If Chinese companies start this path, then the issue is not if ASML will have improved, but if they will be able to withstand the competition.

ASML having competition is good for everyone. Seems tariffs are a win/win/win

Re: Japan on edge of EUV lithography chip-making revolution

#34

Post by l5870uoo9y »

coliveira wrote: post #29
cherryteastain wrote: post #7

Canon and Nikon are also working on alternatives such as nanoimprint lithography [1]. Chinese universities and companies are working on particle accelerator based EUV sources [2]. Question is, will they be able to actually commercialize it before ASML manages to get improved versions of their current litho machines out the door? Commercialization of a technology like this can easily take 5-10 years, and ASML aren't t…

If you consider that China is unable to get ASML equipment, they have strong incentive to improve on this technology immediately. If Chinese companies start this path, then the issue is not if ASML will have improved, but if they will be able to withstand the competition.

Regardless of the immediate ban on ASML, China has made a geopolitical and strategic decision to obtain advanced chip manufacturing capabilities be it in 5, 10 or 20 years. Would be timely if Western politicians showed same concern for national manufacturing capabilities instead of continuously relying on outsourcing.

Re: Japan on edge of EUV lithography chip-making revolution

#35

Post by mlyle »

lmz wrote: post #11
corimaith wrote: post #9

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>The US has made it clear that it sees semiconductors as a vector to attack power centres in Asia. Today it is China. Democracies are notoriously fickle, tomorrow it could be India, Japan, Korea or anyone really. Sorry but this sounds more like propaganda. China also sees supply chains "as a vector to attack power centres in Asia", that's applicable to anyone and anywhere. I'm not sure why Asia is a singled out here,…

> They've already tried sanctioning Korea and Japan over petty issues like Fukushima water waste. Well China wasn't the only one with concerns, but probably the only one with the balls to sanction: https://www.nytimes.com/2023/08/21/world/asia/korea-japan-fu... - and why shouldn't they?

The radiation can't be detected even a couple of kilometers away from the discharge. China is >1000km away, so there's 6+ orders of magnitude more dilution by then.

If I pee in the lake you're swimming in, that's kind of gross... but it ends up being an incomprehensibly tiny fraction of the contaminants and gross stuff you're swimming in.

Re: Japan on edge of EUV lithography chip-making revolution

#36

Post by coliveira »

mensetmanusman wrote: post #33
coliveira wrote: post #29

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If you consider that China is unable to get ASML equipment, they have strong incentive to improve on this technology immediately. If Chinese companies start this path, then the issue is not if ASML will have improved, but if they will be able to withstand the competition.

ASML having competition is good for everyone. Seems tariffs are a win/win/win

I haven't seen any success on the Trump/Biden tariffs. They only managed to weaken US companies by cutting access to Asian markets. China is doing just fine.

Re: Japan on edge of EUV lithography chip-making revolution

#37

Post by oezi »

coliveira wrote: post #36
mensetmanusman wrote: post #33

Earlier quoted context omitted.

ASML having competition is good for everyone. Seems tariffs are a win/win/win

I haven't seen any success on the Trump/Biden tariffs. They only managed to weaken US companies by cutting access to Asian markets. China is doing just fine.

The Hang Seng stock index begs to differ.

Re: Japan on edge of EUV lithography chip-making revolution

#38

Post by roenxi »

corimaith wrote: post #9
roenxi wrote: post #2

Will this attempt work out commercially? Maybe, maybe not. But more interesting here is the strategic situation beyond the currently understood tech. The US has made it clear that it sees semiconductors as a vector to attack power centres in Asia. Today it is China. Democracies are notoriously fickle, tomorrow it could be India, Japan, Korea or anyone really. There is a strategic need here to break the remaining Euro…

>The US has made it clear that it sees semiconductors as a vector to attack power centres in Asia. Today it is China. Democracies are notoriously fickle, tomorrow it could be India, Japan, Korea or anyone really. Sorry but this sounds more like propaganda. China also sees supply chains "as a vector to attack power centres in Asia", that's applicable to anyone and anywhere. I'm not sure why Asia is a singled out here,…

> I'm not sure why Asia is a singled out here, sounds like one to trying to construe a racist motive when there is none.

How long has Asia been a race? The continent contains 60% of all humans.

Re: Japan on edge of EUV lithography chip-making revolution

#39

Post by jolux »

l5870uoo9y wrote: post #34
coliveira wrote: post #29

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If you consider that China is unable to get ASML equipment, they have strong incentive to improve on this technology immediately. If Chinese companies start this path, then the issue is not if ASML will have improved, but if they will be able to withstand the competition.

Regardless of the immediate ban on ASML, China has made a geopolitical and strategic decision to obtain advanced chip manufacturing capabilities be it in 5, 10 or 20 years. Would be timely if Western politicians showed same concern for national manufacturing capabilities instead of continuously relying on outsourcing.

> Would be timely if Western politicians showed same concern for national manufacturing capabilities instead of continuously relying on outsourcing.

You mean like this? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/CHIPS_and_Science_Act

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