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The Soul of Maintaining a New Machine

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Re: The Soul of Maintaining a New Machine

#31
post #12
post #3

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Back in my mainframe days (late 70s) we ran a large mainframe, the only one in the local uni - way slower than your phone, a couple of Mb of core, ran payroll and 30 terminals. We had a dedicated local engineer who had his own onsite office. In the south of NZ we were a really long long way away from his home office in the US, he was expected to be able to fix anything, and mostly he could. But one time the machine s…

> way slower than your phone For the young'uns... I think you're underselling this a bit. A really powerful late 70s mainframe, generously would have been somewhere around 1 to 2 million instructions per second. Your phone is probably on the order of 5-10 trillion instructions per second. That's a million times faster.

your phone is 5–10 billion instructions per second, a thousand times faster. it's probably a quad-core in-order arm running at 1–2 gigahertz, not 1–2 terahertz

Re: The Soul of Maintaining a New Machine

#32
post #31
post #12

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> way slower than your phone For the young'uns... I think you're underselling this a bit. A really powerful late 70s mainframe, generously would have been somewhere around 1 to 2 million instructions per second. Your phone is probably on the order of 5-10 trillion instructions per second. That's a million times faster.

your phone is 5–10 billion instructions per second, a thousand times faster. it's probably a quad-core in-order arm running at 1–2 gigahertz, not 1–2 terahertz

Instructions and hertz have not been equivalent for almost a quarter of a century now, though.

Re: The Soul of Maintaining a New Machine

#33
post #32
post #31

Earlier quoted context omitted.

your phone is 5–10 billion instructions per second, a thousand times faster. it's probably a quad-core in-order arm running at 1–2 gigahertz, not 1–2 terahertz

Instructions and hertz have not been equivalent for almost a quarter of a century now, though.

not equivalent, but close enough in this case; even my laptop only manages less than 2 ipc per core, and the error in your earlier comment is a factor of 1000

Re: The Soul of Maintaining a New Machine

#34

This passage particularly struck me: He noticed when a technician on a call began by examining copies that had been thrown in the trash and deduced from them that the problem with the machine was different from what the customer had reported. “The trashcan is a filter between good copies and bad,” one technician explained “Just go to the trashcan to find the bad copies and then… interpret what connects them all.” On…

For a long while, I've been helping people diagnose problems with 3D printers and one of the things that stands out to me is how often people throw away bad prints while they're troubleshooting.

One of the first things I ask someone now is to give me their test prints for the last few changes they've made and what they changed, if they remember. Nine times out of ten, just looking at other factors, I've been able to pinpoint what's wrong.

Interestingly, this has also led me to a few "is it turned on" questions, the first of which is "when is the last time you tightened all the bolts that should be tight and loosened the bolts that should be loose?" The simple act of making sure tight things are square and tight has resolved many an unrelated problem because it makes you check so many different parts of the machine.

This also correlates with one of the takeaways from the old Computerworld column called Shark Tank. The most common aspect of the solution was to simply go and observe the failure, because so often it was an unaccounted for externality -- such as a cleaning crew unplugging something at 2AM when a system would "mysteriously" go down.

Re: The Soul of Maintaining a New Machine

#35
post #30
post #29

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes, cryptocurrencies not cryptography. Bad of me to use that contraction for anything but the latter. Have they really made a significant difference? A bit of searching around resulting in a few articles with anecdotes, and if someone's life really was saved this way of course it made a huge difference to them. But for some macro perspective the best I could find was the "Crypto Adoption Index" ( https://www.chainal…

pretty much the entire currency black market here in argentina used to run on cryptocurrencies, which is more significant than it sounds given how large a fraction of argentina's employment is illegal (something like a third, last i heard). i think us banks have taken some of that business away from cryptocurrencies in recent years, but every illegal moneychanger still accepts them even if most of their business runs…

> on a financial macro perspective, there's currently about 1.1 trillion dollars stored in bitcoin, which is a few days of global gdp

You need to compare like to like. $2T of cryptocurrencies is about 2% of all the world’s stock exchanges (after the recent fall). Or compare it to total world fungible assets: https://www.visualcapitalist.com/all-of-the-worlds-money-and...

Re: The Soul of Maintaining a New Machine

#36
post #35
post #30

Earlier quoted context omitted.

pretty much the entire currency black market here in argentina used to run on cryptocurrencies, which is more significant than it sounds given how large a fraction of argentina's employment is illegal (something like a third, last i heard). i think us banks have taken some of that business away from cryptocurrencies in recent years, but every illegal moneychanger still accepts them even if most of their business runs…

> on a financial macro perspective, there's currently about 1.1 trillion dollars stored in bitcoin, which is a few days of global gdp You need to compare like to like. $2T of cryptocurrencies is about 2% of all the world’s stock exchanges (after the recent fall). Or compare it to total world fungible assets: https://www.visualcapitalist.com/all-of-the-worlds-money-and...

that seems like the right kind of comparison, yeah, although it's surprising the world's stock exchanges aren't worth more.† the infographic article is excellent, though i guess now cryptocurrencies would be more like 15 squares instead of three

2% is far from insignificant! argentina's gdp is less than 1% of the world's—as are each of switzerland, taiwan, belgium, israel, south africa, pakistan, new zealand, nigeria, greece, and hungary. if the advent of cryptocurrencies has added a new power to the world stage of the same order of magnitude as taiwan, pakistan, or nigeria, that's a momentous event—particularly since it's doing it by giving tens of millions of the world's poorest people relief from terrible governance

(funding universal public access to history's biggest library despite prohibitions from the world's greatest powers seems significant, too. you've been in india, you know what library access is like outside the rich world, and you're surely aware that sci-hub and libgen have had a huge positive impact even inside the rich world)

in the infographic, the m1 money supply is about four months of world gdp, 35 trillion dollars, and that seems like the most nearly equivalent thing in the list to compare bitcoin to. it's about 3%. if we assume that countries' money supply is close to proportional to their gdp, that would make bitcoin the 8th largest world currency, following the euro, the us dollar, the yuan, the yen, the indian rupee, the pound, and the brazilian real. it would beat the canadian dollar, the russian ruble, and the other 150 or so national currencies, going by https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(nomi...

if we use the m2 money supply instead, bitcoin is about 1% of it and drops to about 15th

on the opposite end of the scale, supposedly there are two or three thousand billionaires in the world; bitcoin distribution is widely considered to be highly inequitable, and so it may have added a few dozen or a few hundred to that number. considering the historical impact of certain individual billionaires like andrew carnegie, george soros, john d. rockefeller, and leland stanford, that seems like it might also be important

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† world gdp is 110 trillion dollars per year; if corporate profits are 10% of that, that'd be 11 trillion dollars per year of profits, and you'd expect share prices to average around 20 years of profits, which would be 220 trillion dollars, much higher than the 89.5 trillion dollars in the infographic. perhaps outside the usa corporate profits are much lower, or investing in the stock market is much riskier? it's certainly riskier here

Re: The Soul of Maintaining a New Machine

#37
post #12
post #3

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Back in my mainframe days (late 70s) we ran a large mainframe, the only one in the local uni - way slower than your phone, a couple of Mb of core, ran payroll and 30 terminals. We had a dedicated local engineer who had his own onsite office. In the south of NZ we were a really long long way away from his home office in the US, he was expected to be able to fix anything, and mostly he could. But one time the machine s…

> way slower than your phone For the young'uns... I think you're underselling this a bit. A really powerful late 70s mainframe, generously would have been somewhere around 1 to 2 million instructions per second. Your phone is probably on the order of 5-10 trillion instructions per second. That's a million times faster.

Yes exactly, core cycle times were ~1uS so around 1Mhz clock for our old B6700

Re: The Soul of Maintaining a New Machine

#38
Back in 1986 I worked for $BIG_BANK where we replaced humans, typewriters and carbon paper forms with Xerox laser printers (conveniently leapfrogging daisy wheel and dot-matrix technology). These beasts were the size of a large microwave oven, or maybe a small dorm fridge turned on its side, and I seem to remember them costing $6,000 but my memory is fuzzy and it may have been as much as $15,000.

Anyway, these printers were finicky, and I remember we were visited by the same two Xerox service techs on a regular basis. In addition to repairs, they were faced with the near impossible task of keeping the toner (which was dispensed by hand from a plastic container, similar to powdered clothing detergent) off their white shirts and ties. We saw those guys so often that even now, 38 years later, I still remember that one of them was named Randy.

Re: The Soul of Maintaining a New Machine

#39
post #19

This was such important and transformational work and I remember at the time being quite dismissive of it. I knew Orr’s and Suchman’s work (they worked in a physically adjacent area, but completely different group, though we were all under John Seely Brown and because they were nice people). Thankfully I was grown up enough to be polite, but really I was such a techno-determinist that I figured user problems came fro…

tangential

... without marketing (e.g. gmail

I would hard disagree that there was no marketing.

gmail had one of the first really successful guerilla marketing campaigns imo. Google made the initial phase by "invite only". By making it exclusive, a whole ecosystem developed around getting invites so that you could have that @gmail.com account. By the time of the official launch they had captured what could losely be described as the influencers of the time.

Invite only has been tried a few times since then, but never to my knowledge has it been done as well.

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