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From GPT-4 to AGI: Counting the OOMs

situational-awareness.ai

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Re: From GPT-4 to AGI: Counting the OOMs

#31

Post by esjeon »

sberens wrote: post #5
Veraticus wrote: post #3

AGI is not a continuum from LLMs; true intelligence is characterized by comprehension, reasoning, and self-awareness, transcending mere data patterns.

What is an abstract reasoning task that your average 15 year old (who has "general intelligence") can do that you think LLMs can't do?

> your average 15 year old

What's the point of this restriction? It really just presupposes the limitation of LLM, so that any negative points would look moot.

EDIT: Also, I tried to discuss this very specific point w/ GPT, but it didn't really "get" it. 15-year old kids would be able to follow through.

Re: From GPT-4 to AGI: Counting the OOMs

#32

Post by daveguy »

qingcharles wrote: post #23
Veraticus wrote: post #3

AGI is not a continuum from LLMs; true intelligence is characterized by comprehension, reasoning, and self-awareness, transcending mere data patterns.

Even if an LLM it isn't "AGI" as we all imagined the term a decade ago, it will certainly be able to fake it pretty well in the near-term. What LLMs have done is really redefine my internal definition of "intelligence." Putting aside the fact I don't believe in free will, I'm no longer sure my own brain is doing anything substantially different to what an LLM does now. Even with tasks like math I wonder if my brain i…

I promise you that your brain is doing more than what an LLM does.

Re: From GPT-4 to AGI: Counting the OOMs

#33

Post by EnigmaFlare »

Veraticus wrote: post #3

AGI is not a continuum from LLMs; true intelligence is characterized by comprehension, reasoning, and self-awareness, transcending mere data patterns.

Nonsense. You can't even define some of those words or know how to measure or identify them in humans. Well, foreign language learners do "reading comprehension tests" but an LLM can already ace that and it's not really the same meaning of the word.

For reasoning you can write out the logic of your reasons, so there's that. But that's absolutely not required for AGI. People can already go a long way (often further than by reasoning) on intuition alone without being able to explain how they reached their conclusions.

Re: From GPT-4 to AGI: Counting the OOMs

#34

Post by neom »

qingcharles wrote: post #23
Veraticus wrote: post #3

AGI is not a continuum from LLMs; true intelligence is characterized by comprehension, reasoning, and self-awareness, transcending mere data patterns.

Even if an LLM it isn't "AGI" as we all imagined the term a decade ago, it will certainly be able to fake it pretty well in the near-term. What LLMs have done is really redefine my internal definition of "intelligence." Putting aside the fact I don't believe in free will, I'm no longer sure my own brain is doing anything substantially different to what an LLM does now. Even with tasks like math I wonder if my brain i…

Is there much evidence that the brain is doing very much other than what a transformer is working its way towards? Either way, doesn't much matter because you are not your brain, you are a spirit inhabiting a meat sack, brain is just one of the meat sack components.

Re: From GPT-4 to AGI: Counting the OOMs

#35

Post by langcss »

sberens wrote: post #5
Veraticus wrote: post #3

AGI is not a continuum from LLMs; true intelligence is characterized by comprehension, reasoning, and self-awareness, transcending mere data patterns.

What is an abstract reasoning task that your average 15 year old (who has "general intelligence") can do that you think LLMs can't do?

If you mean LLMs today: Write code that works. More than 100k tokens worth.

Learn something without a megawatt hour of power.

Read a novel and talk about what it really means.

Re: From GPT-4 to AGI: Counting the OOMs

#36

Post by budududuroiu »

neom wrote: post #27
threeseed wrote: post #16

> By the end of this, I expect us to get something that looks a lot like a drop-in remote worker. An agent that joins your company, is onboarded like a new human hire, messages you and colleagues on Slack and uses your softwares, makes .. I work at a company with ~50k employees each of whom has different data access rules governed by regulation. So either (a) you train thousands of models which is cost-prohibitive or…

They won't be used in your business and your business will be less efficient until the regulations change or you end up competing with someone who is willing to ignore the regulations. Also, there are lots of countries without as stringent regulations, it’s not about the inefficiencies that are gone that is the problem, is it about the efficiencies that are created that is the problem. This is a country to country is…

At this point I’m willing to short ANY traditional company that is pivoting to use “AI”. I firmly believe not using AI is the more efficient route, anything else just invites bloat

Re: From GPT-4 to AGI: Counting the OOMs

#37

Post by neom »

threeseed wrote: post #28
neom wrote: post #27

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They won't be used in your business and your business will be less efficient until the regulations change or you end up competing with someone who is willing to ignore the regulations. Also, there are lots of countries without as stringent regulations, it’s not about the inefficiencies that are gone that is the problem, is it about the efficiencies that are created that is the problem. This is a country to country is…

I work in banking. Every single country has stringent regulations in this sector. And fine grained access control is a foundational data governance issue for every enterprise.

You think banking won't change? I'd surprised to hear that tbh.

Re: From GPT-4 to AGI: Counting the OOMs

#38

Post by tkgally »

threeseed wrote: post #16

> By the end of this, I expect us to get something that looks a lot like a drop-in remote worker. An agent that joins your company, is onboarded like a new human hire, messages you and colleagues on Slack and uses your softwares, makes .. I work at a company with ~50k employees each of whom has different data access rules governed by regulation. So either (a) you train thousands of models which is cost-prohibitive or…

Are separately trained models necessary for your case? As context windows get longer—Gemini 1.5 Pro now accepts up to two million tokens, and Google has talked of the goal of "infinite" context windows—couldn't a single base model be used with individualized contexts of sensitive data?

Re: From GPT-4 to AGI: Counting the OOMs

#39

Post by TaylorAlexander »

sberens wrote: post #5
Veraticus wrote: post #3

AGI is not a continuum from LLMs; true intelligence is characterized by comprehension, reasoning, and self-awareness, transcending mere data patterns.

What is an abstract reasoning task that your average 15 year old (who has "general intelligence") can do that you think LLMs can't do?

A 15 year old can reason about how to move their body through a complex obstacle course. They could reason about the nonverbal social cues in a complex interpersonal situation between multiple people, estimate the mood of each person even if there are very few words being exchanged, and determine how different possible actions would affect the situation. They could learn with brief instruction how to control their muscles to climb up a rope. They could learn how to learn so that they become better at a task of their choosing. They can receive new information that permanently changes their understanding of the world. They can learn new tasks for which no massive data set of training data exists. They can perform hierarchical reasoning, like “if I want to fly from San Francisco to New York I first need to buy a plane ticket, then pack my bags, tell my family where I will be going, make sure my phone is charged, walk to the train station, etc etc.”

Also if you ask them a question they can provide you one answer with very little thinking, and then if that’s not good enough they can devote more time to thinking about the answer before they answer again. They can devote arbitrary levels of thinking to any problem depending on what is needed. They can continuously take in new data and continually update their world view throughout their entire existence based on this new information.

There’s actually a huge list of things current autoregressive approaches to AI cannot do, but they can be hard to describe and people don’t like to talk about them so many people actually don’t understand how limited the current systems are.

Here’s a great video where Yann Lecun talks about the limits of autoregressive approaches to AI with many examples:

https://youtu.be/1lHFUR-yD6I

Re: From GPT-4 to AGI: Counting the OOMs

#40

Post by neom »

budududuroiu wrote: post #36
neom wrote: post #27

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They won't be used in your business and your business will be less efficient until the regulations change or you end up competing with someone who is willing to ignore the regulations. Also, there are lots of countries without as stringent regulations, it’s not about the inefficiencies that are gone that is the problem, is it about the efficiencies that are created that is the problem. This is a country to country is…

At this point I’m willing to short ANY traditional company that is pivoting to use “AI”. I firmly believe not using AI is the more efficient route, anything else just invites bloat

I watched a secretary take business cards and 1 by 1 copy them into our client DB last week. All day. I showed her how to use the ChatGPT app, photo of them all, and convert it into an excel. "You just saved me weeks of work this year"

Should be some fun shorting (we have over 300 secretaries alone, our support staff is massive).

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