Batteries: How cheap can they get? • Hacker News Board

Re: Batteries: How cheap can they get?

#31

Post by duffpkg » Thu, Jul 04, 2024, 8:24 PM UTC

reaperman wrote: post #25

duffpkg wrote: post #19

Lifepo4 (lithium iron phosphate) batteries for the home are pretty cheap as of today. Power storage for residential use in a 48v metal rackable linkable system with battery management system (BMS) is $89/kwh shipped/duty paid from reputable chinese suppliers CATL/Seplos etc. You have to wait for sea shipping, add $30/kwh if you want to buy it in the US today. From the same suppliers sodium batteries are currently $13…

> Due to rising power costs I moved one of my homes completely to solar and battery Were you able to disconnect that home from the grid? Most places you're required to maintain a grid connection unless the home is in an exceptionally remote location. While pricing tends to be usage-based, true costs tend to be dominated by the capital expense of building base-load capacity for the few days your home might need to run…

Yes. Totally disconnected, zero power bill. That home is in a jurisdiction where that is permissible.

Re: Batteries: How cheap can they get?

#32

Post by icapybara » Thu, Jul 04, 2024, 8:24 PM UTC

tux3 wrote: post #20

icapybara wrote: post #12

I'd rather hear a projection from an engineer/scientist/operations person in the industry. This kinda reads like it's written by an armchair expert who thinks about batteries a lot, but doesn't have much to do with building that future being described. Sometimes the technical details matter and projected scaling trends aren't an inevitability.

It does seem to be written by someone who's very far above the ground — even managing to throw the blockchain in there at the end. But the point they're making is reasonable. Just because the author isn't deeply technical doesn't mean they can't fit an exponential and extrapolate correctly. Exponential growth always has to stop somewhere, but that's not in and of itself a reason to think this year is the year that it…

Fair. I guess I have an issue with technology projections that assume the technology will follow some fit, because it always has. Every bit of progress is made with tons of risky work and breakthroughs, and none of it is guaranteed like you would think it is just by looking at a fit.

Re: Batteries: How cheap can they get?

#33

Post by silverquiet » Thu, Jul 04, 2024, 8:27 PM UTC

ss64 wrote: post #4

The cost of 50AH Li-Ion batteries is getting close to the point where they may start to compete with Lead acid for gas powered cars.

I looked at it and couldn’t find any that offered enough cranking amps. I’m not sure how easy it would be to design a lifepo4 battery for the application.

Re: Batteries: How cheap can they get?

#34

Post by robocat » Thu, Jul 04, 2024, 8:29 PM UTC

catlikesshrimp wrote: post #6

ss64 wrote: post #4

The cost of 50AH Li-Ion batteries is getting close to the point where they may start to compete with Lead acid for gas powered cars.

The environment be damned: Regarding price / energy density, yes. They even have weight / energy density advantage. But Lithium batteries can't be recycled. Saying "We are almost there" and "The future looks bright about it" is "moving fast and breaking things" again

Lead Acid batteries must get replaced every few years.

An equivalent LiIon battery would not need to be replaced so quickly.

So at some crossover point the environmental cost of X * recyclable Lead acid batteries is higher than LiIon batteries.

Re: Batteries: How cheap can they get?

#35

Post by ck2 » Thu, Jul 04, 2024, 8:29 PM UTC

Except we are not going to have cheap batteries and solar in the USA and never ever cheap EVs

Remember how tariffs were called "asinine" when the last administration did them?

Next year tariffs will double the price of batteries and solar imports, except there's no domestic production to even compete at that high price.

Oh semiconductors are going to double in price too in 2025, buy soon.

https://www.theverge.com/2024/5/14/24156249/us-biden-china-t...

Re: Batteries: How cheap can they get?

#36

Post by marcosdumay » Thu, Jul 04, 2024, 8:33 PM UTC

jtbayly wrote: post #16

icapybara wrote: post #12

I'd rather hear a projection from an engineer/scientist/operations person in the industry. This kinda reads like it's written by an armchair expert who thinks about batteries a lot, but doesn't have much to do with building that future being described. Sometimes the technical details matter and projected scaling trends aren't an inevitability.

He claims the expert estimates have been wrong every year (too conservative).

To the extent that have been expert estimates out there, they do have been consistently wrong. The same happens to solar and wind generation.

But well, I haven't seen any that don't have a conflict of interest into claiming fossil fuels will continue to be required. And that's a large part of the problem: you just won't find uninterested experts publishing estimates.

Re: Batteries: How cheap can they get?

#37

Post by syntaxing » Thu, Jul 04, 2024, 8:35 PM UTC

jvanderbot wrote: post #17

I would love a 5-20kwh battery backup in my home, I even have a place for it. But when I called my local solar/battery installer they said that it was illegal to install grid-charged battery backups in home. I live in Minnesota. They even told me the power from a hypothetical solar rig is sold to the grid utility, not stored, and they give a discount on future winter rates as payment. This seems like a lousy deal.

There’s been some pretty big deals from Ecoflow (I don’t own any of their products nor affiliated). The Delta Ultra was on sale at Home Depot for $2800 before tax, 6 kWh battery, 7kWH continuous supply, with 21kWH peak wattage. Everything is built in including inverter. You can install their smart panel (probably requires a permit) and it’ll switch between grid and battery for you. I’ll be surprised these are illegal in your town but there’s but some crazy local laws.

Re: Batteries: How cheap can they get?

#38

Post by worstspotgain » Thu, Jul 04, 2024, 8:36 PM UTC

As a layperson, the first thing the title made me think of is "How safe can they get?" Let RESCI be the Risk of Explosion/Surge/Combustion/Inhalation. Here are some measures that are interesting to me that I can't really approximate when evaluating products:

- Incremental RESCI when buying from the cheapest 25% of vendors

- Incremental RESCI when drawing from the product population that shouldn't have passed QA

- Incremental RESCI when buying on AliExpress or random sites

- Incremental RESCI when dropping, hitting with a hammer, leaving in the sun, subjecting to a power surge

- Incremental RESCI from living in a dense neighborhood where dense people are buying from the cheapest 25% of vendors on AliExpress, occasionally dropping or hitting with a hammer, etc.

In the West, we have about a buck's worth of experience with residential electric service. By many measures, it's still much more dangerous than it should be.

Re: Batteries: How cheap can they get?

#39

Post by jonathanlydall » Thu, Jul 04, 2024, 8:37 PM UTC

martythemaniak wrote: post #5

Current prices are kinda nutty and are largely determined by the size of your buy. Retail prices for home batteries (a few kWhs) are roughly $1000/kWh. A Model 3 gets you about $700/kWh (with two free motors and an ipad). A Tesla megapack is $290/kWh, but you have to spend $1000000 to get that price. Tesla probably gets cells from the factory at round $80-$90/kWh. Long-term it seems pretty reasonable that retail pric…

USD 1,000 per kw/h seems very high to me.

A couple of years ago here in South Africa I paid about ZAR 30,000 (USD 1,650) as a consumer for a 5kw/h battery, and I just checked online now, I can apparently get a similar battery for half that:

https://www.ecohub.co.za/shop/solar-power/lithium-batteries/...

Re: Batteries: How cheap can they get?

#40

Post by fragmede » Thu, Jul 04, 2024, 8:37 PM UTC

NooneAtAll3 wrote: post #22

justahuman74 wrote: post #7

Earlier quoted context omitted.

At $1k for 20kw/h, I'd be very tempted to massively over-panel the roof and front/back yard on pergolas, install 200kwh of battery and never deal with pg&e again

what's pg&e?

They are the utility company that covers most of California. They recently raised rates and customers are unhappy. They are a for-profit and their lack of spending on maintenance has caused a number of fires which has killed people, leading them to be unpopular, among other reasons.