31–40 of 104 posts
Translation: the LLM gold rush hasn't found gold. You can still make money selling shovels for a few years tho?
Earlier quoted context omitted.
Probably some of each. To me I see a lot of similarities to cloud computing early on (broadly defined). There were a lot of twists and turns in the road and a lot of things didn't tuen out as many predicted--and it was, naturally, much messier than earlier visions. But companies that decided to sit back and see how things played out mostly paid for it while the winners--so far--have mostly been companies that made be…
I worked in Enterprise Cloud teams during those early days. It was instantly loved because it allowed development teams from across the company to bypass central IT and provision their own infrastructure. And because it was such high quality e.g. secure, highly available it could be trusted for Production workloads. There is no comparison at all to AI which is fundamentally untrustworthy and may remain so for a while…
Don’t know if that is accidental or the trajectory we are on.
Translation: the LLM gold rush hasn't found gold. You can still make money selling shovels for a few years tho?
To me it seems that AI is not even priced into the market cap of the big tech companies yet. Since GPT-3 came out in mid 2020: Alphabet's market cap doubled. But their earnings more than doubled. Same for Microsoft. In other words: Their p/e ratio did not increase. The future potential of AI is not yet priced in. The cost of all human labor is something like $70 trillion per year. Automating 1% of that per year would…
It’s the best demo-able software today that lets the customers’ minds go wild with the possibilities. But then the nuances of human abilities in commercial settings, like call center, become realities and obstacles that the software can’t surmount. Costs rise, productivity not so much, and then legal gets involved and it’s even more costly.
This is the best description of the current state of affairs. But who is going to risk not invest on what could be another possible major breakthrough in 3 to 5 years? Either from a GPT5 or another source? It's not like all the brainpower that left OpenAI recently, suddenly converted to farming... At least load on NVIDIA options....
That's an interesting figure, especially given that most of the exciting features in that demo (video analysis, the new voice input/output, improved image generation) are actually available to paying users yet.
To me it seems that AI is not even priced into the market cap of the big tech companies yet. Since GPT-3 came out in mid 2020: Alphabet's market cap doubled. But their earnings more than doubled. Same for Microsoft. In other words: Their p/e ratio did not increase. The future potential of AI is not yet priced in. The cost of all human labor is something like $70 trillion per year. Automating 1% of that per year would…
You have to take out the post-pandemic rebound effect before you can talk about the AI effect. From an earnings perspective, no AI has bought a significant amount for the bigtechs.
Tech companies dipped in early 2020 for a short time, but rebounded already before GPT-3 came out.
And then - if anything - the freshly printed money and the increased demand in technology made the valuations of tech companies go up.
Maybe AI is "losing steam" but this is an opinion column masquerading as news, with one or two quotes (from e.g. noted AI skeptic Gary Marcus) or anecdotes supporting each section. It would be equally possible to collect a series of similar but opposite data points to assert that AI is in fact gaining steam.
Technology revolution means different thing to different people - technological change, consumer benefit - investing opportunity. If you compare to internet revolution consumer benefit increased steadily, but as a general investment category it was total bust. During the internet revolution, Top 5 internet companies were Yahoo.com, AOL.com, Geocities.com, MSN.com, and Lycos.com. It took almost 10 years to Amazon stoc…