Ok so what's the INR take on China-Taiwan?
Classified, I'm sure.
The obscure intelligence bureau that got Vietnam, Iraq, and Ukraine right
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Re: The obscure intelligence bureau that got Vietnam, Iraq, and Ukraine right
#323 things right over 70 years, that's.... quite a track record
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Re: The obscure intelligence bureau that got Vietnam, Iraq, and Ukraine right
#33I'm guessing the purpose of the CIA is to produce information which leads to political actions that yield financial benefits for the country while the purpose of INR is to produce accurate information without concern for financial benefits. The fact that the government thought it needed 2 organizations to do what is supposed to be the same job shows that neither organization is doing the full job properly. It's almos…
That's a reasonable cynical take on it. Another is that different organizations have different biases, incentives, historical perspectives, and so forth. So it's reasonable to consider different points of view.
By that logic, 10 is always better than 2, so they are still seriously lacking balanced info
Re: The obscure intelligence bureau that got Vietnam, Iraq, and Ukraine right
#34Earlier quoted context omitted.
Even in wars between peer-level nations, it doesn't end with total destruction. Did Germany lose world war 1 or did they just decide to stop bothering with it? I think the answer is clearly the former, but in the end they still kept an independent state, weren't occupied, etc.
Absolutely right, negotiated peace in some fashion is common even then. But either side might be able to follow through and entirely subjugate the other, or at least dismantle their state. That’s not on the table with very-unequal combatants. The only plausible outcome (barring expansion of the war into something more like a world war, anyway) of the Vietnam war that was a victory for north Vietnam was “the US gives…
I mean, i guess the other way to lose is like the soviet union in afghanistan, depending on how directly you think that lead to its collapse. But yeah, i agree with you.
Re: The obscure intelligence bureau that got Vietnam, Iraq, and Ukraine right
#35Intelligence bureaus are like stock pickers.
You're going to get one eventually that went on a lucky streak and guessed several international developments in a row.
What about other non-war events? Does INR also do better in that regard?
Re: The obscure intelligence bureau that got Vietnam, Iraq, and Ukraine right
#36Somewhat meta-ish question about the Vietnam War for someone who has perhaps studied the topic more: Did the US "lose" the war or did they simply stop 'bothering' with it? In 1973 there was the Paris Peace Accords that crystallized (Communist) North Vietnam and (non-communist) South Vietnam, just like the two Koreas. Then in 1975 the north invaded: * https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1975_spring_offensive and the US (mil…
Rather like Afghanistan, you can prop up a government that has no real legitimacy outside the capital for as long as you're prepared to pay for it, but then it collapses.
I do not fully understand the backstory, but the Vienamese seem to have done OK out of the "Communist" victory. It's a very different place from North Korea.
Alternate counterfactual: is there a route through history where https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Haiphong_incident does not take place and a peaceful, unified Vietnam exists from the end of WW2 onwards?
Re: The obscure intelligence bureau that got Vietnam, Iraq, and Ukraine right
#37Getting iraq not having WMD right probably isn't that hard. Allegedly canadian intelligence knew this, but had it all marked "for canadian eyes only" because they were worried about consequences if usa found out they weren't on board. I highly doubt canada has super-spies, the problem is usa really wanted there to be WMDs, so they came to the conclusion there was. https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/canadian-intelligenc…
I particularly remember the mainstream media in the US cheerleading for the war and shouting down anybody who raised doubts as being "with the terrorists". The truth is that the intelligence never mattered, it was always meant as an act of revenge against the Arab/Muslim world for 9/11 and a settling of scores from the 90s Gulf War.
Re: The obscure intelligence bureau that got Vietnam, Iraq, and Ukraine right
#38Getting iraq not having WMD right probably isn't that hard. Allegedly canadian intelligence knew this, but had it all marked "for canadian eyes only" because they were worried about consequences if usa found out they weren't on board. I highly doubt canada has super-spies, the problem is usa really wanted there to be WMDs, so they came to the conclusion there was. https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/canadian-intelligenc…
Yes - back when the US was threatening war, Iraq let in UN weapons inspectors, who would of course have gladly inspected anywhere the US/UK said the weapons were.
Everyone following the news knew at the time the US & UK couldn't direct the inspectors to the WMDs, because no WMDs existed.
Re: The obscure intelligence bureau that got Vietnam, Iraq, and Ukraine right
#39Getting iraq not having WMD right probably isn't that hard. Allegedly canadian intelligence knew this, but had it all marked "for canadian eyes only" because they were worried about consequences if usa found out they weren't on board. I highly doubt canada has super-spies, the problem is usa really wanted there to be WMDs, so they came to the conclusion there was. https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/canadian-intelligenc…
Sometimes I feel like I was taking crazy pills, but I distinctly remember major news agencies like the BBC calling BS with pretty hard facts about the whole WMD thing, but no one really cared. (In America or Britain anyways)
Re: The obscure intelligence bureau that got Vietnam, Iraq, and Ukraine right
#40Somewhat meta-ish question about the Vietnam War for someone who has perhaps studied the topic more: Did the US "lose" the war or did they simply stop 'bothering' with it? In 1973 there was the Paris Peace Accords that crystallized (Communist) North Vietnam and (non-communist) South Vietnam, just like the two Koreas. Then in 1975 the north invaded: * https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1975_spring_offensive and the US (mil…
It’s important to remember that the war in Vietnam had begun as a war of independence from the French. The US should never have gotten involved, and only did so because of the fear of the spread of Communism. We should never have gotten involved.