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Ex-Googler says company's AI panic is like Google+ fiasco all over again

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Re: Ex-Googler says company's AI panic is like Google+ fiasco all over again

#31

Post by thinkharderdev »

packetlost wrote: post #22
CoastalCoder wrote: post #11

As a software developer, I'm anxious about the AI gold rush being a bubble that's about to pop. I've been unemployed ever since the Great 15% Layoffs, about 14 months ago. I finally landed a job (well, once the paperwork is done) related to bringing up a new processor. But it's a DL accelerator. I really hope there's not another employment bloodbath if/when the AI bubble bursts, since my savings are pretty much deple…

I'm not unemployed, but I too am worried about this. Practically everything besides big tech has been in a recessionary state for awhile now but the S&P looks great because nvidia's stock went to the moon and a few other tech companies are doing very well... for now. I'm not sure how much longer this can be sustained.

This is not even remotely true. Corporate earnings are growing strongly across almost all sectors (https://www.usbank.com/investing/financial-perspectives/mark....)

Re: Ex-Googler says company's AI panic is like Google+ fiasco all over again

#32

Post by arez »

CoastalCoder wrote: post #11

As a software developer, I'm anxious about the AI gold rush being a bubble that's about to pop. I've been unemployed ever since the Great 15% Layoffs, about 14 months ago. I finally landed a job (well, once the paperwork is done) related to bringing up a new processor. But it's a DL accelerator. I really hope there's not another employment bloodbath if/when the AI bubble bursts, since my savings are pretty much deple…

I don't think so. People already start to realize that AI won't solve everything in the near future and will hire soon also more engineers again, when the bubble bursts engineers will be valued better again and more jobs should open

Re: Ex-Googler says company's AI panic is like Google+ fiasco all over again

#33

Post by meindnoch »

louwrentius wrote: post #9

Many companies are trying to find new growth to satisfy their shareholders. We all understand that growing growth is unsustainable, but that doesn't matter, they just 'have to'. VR and Crypto/Blockchain didn't pan out, so now the new hotness is AI. There is an opportunity to make something useful out of AI that people want to pay for, in order to keep shareholders happy. AI is especially interesting for shareholders…

>What I do observe is that society is more diverging between the haves and the have-nots.

The next hype could be private security via weaponized drones!

Re: Ex-Googler says company's AI panic is like Google+ fiasco all over again

#34

Post by vundercind »

stephc_int13 wrote: post #2

This is not only Google. Most of the big and medium tech companies CEOs have been about as gullible and delusional as the crypto-bros of 2k18. And now, as all the FOMO-driven AI integrations are starting to bear fruits, it seems that we're going to enter a chapter of unprecedented bullshit and disappointment in the history of personal computers.

Even a ton of non-tech companies are rushing to retool their data systems and pipelines so they can ask AI trivial questions about their business. It’s crazy, but CEOs love the demos. The number of graphs and dashboards they could have had manually-created for the same money… good thing they’re all super-good at business and don’t just chase whatever fad comes along.

Re: Ex-Googler says company's AI panic is like Google+ fiasco all over again

#36

Post by darylteo »

Mmm I don't think I agree with this person's analysis, despite him being a ex-googler.

Don't get me wrong - i'm also not a big fan of company's hamfisting "ai" into every product that they have. But in Google's case it might be a do-or-die situation.

---

Basically, AI tech's current value proposition is simple - information retrieval.

What does Google happen to do? Information retrieval.

---

Google absolutely should be scared if they aren't already.

The phrase "Just ask ChatGPT" has already entered the common parlance, in much the same way "Just Google It" did in the 2000s. Zoom killed Skype in much the same way.

In 10 years, gen-alphas could be using ChatGPT exclusively for performing their information gathering. In 20 years, Google's search revenue (55% of their revenue) might be hit sufficiently that they have to pivot something else. In 30 years, more time than it took Yahoo to become completely irrelevant as a company (founded 30 years ago!), Google may be just as irrelevant then.

Google is already giving up the meta-physical space to Facebook and Apple. They've already given up the services space to Apple. They hardly even build their own hardware anymore, so all that's all going to Apple and Samsung. If the balance of power shifts, Google might just lose Android to Samsung completely.

Now they might just lose the information-retrieval space too, which is their core identity.

What do they have left after? YouTube, Business, and Infra, and Play Store. None of which actually makes them much money at all.

They absolutely need to put their AI thing in as many things as possible, and try to leapfrog the competition. But at this point I think they may have already lost in the current consumer headspace.

My casual 2cents

Re: Ex-Googler says company's AI panic is like Google+ fiasco all over again

#37

Post by andsoitis »

Scott Jenson is the ex-Googler in the article.

He posted this on LinkedIn: “ I just left Google last month. The "AI Projects" I was working on were poorly motivated and driven by this panic that as long as it had "AI" in it, it would be great. This myopia is NOT something driven by a user need. It is a stone cold panic that they are getting left behind.

The vision is that there will be a Tony Stark like Jarvis assistant in your phone that locks you into their ecosystem so hard that you'll never leave. That vision is pure catnip. The fear is that they can't afford to let someone else get there first.

This exact thing happened 13 years ago with Google+ (I was there for that fiasco as well). That was a similar reaction but to Facebook.

BTW, Apple is no different. They too are trying to create this AI lock-in with Siri. When the emperor, eventually, has no clothes, they'll be lapped by someone thinking bigger.

I'm not a luddite, there is some value to this new technology. It's just not well motivated.

Edit: Well, this has blown up. To be very clear, I wasn't a senior leader at Google, my projects were fairly limited. My comment comes more from a general frustration of the entire industry and it's approach to AI”

— https://www.linkedin.com/posts/scottjenson_this-years-google...

Re: Ex-Googler says company's AI panic is like Google+ fiasco all over again

#38

Post by queuebert »

bee_rider wrote: post #12

Missing on social media was a pretty big error for Google, right?

They didn't miss on social media from a social perspective -- Google+ was a great user experience. But it did make it harder to harvest people's attention for ad revenue.

Re: Ex-Googler says company's AI panic is like Google+ fiasco all over again

#39

Post by dontreact »

scialex wrote: post #18

> Some of you may remember Google's much-hyped AI voice "Duplex," which was supposed to automate all those annoying phone calls and call centers. That was in 2018, six years ago. Since then, we've seen how it's turned out Reasonably successfully? Call screen is easily one of the best features of my phone. Call hold navigation is also really useful. It calling restaurants and the like is not something I commonly use b…

Yep this is a nice feature and I use it…

Re: Ex-Googler says company's AI panic is like Google+ fiasco all over again

#40

Post by Guthur »

thinkharderdev wrote: post #31
packetlost wrote: post #22

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm not unemployed, but I too am worried about this. Practically everything besides big tech has been in a recessionary state for awhile now but the S&P looks great because nvidia's stock went to the moon and a few other tech companies are doing very well... for now. I'm not sure how much longer this can be sustained.

This is not even remotely true. Corporate earnings are growing strongly across almost all sectors ( https://www.usbank.com/investing/financial-perspectives/mark... .)

That link doesn't say anything like that, what are you taking about. It even mentions that sizable number of companies have negative guidance.
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