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Mary Meeker’s eye-popping annual Internet Trends report hits the web

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Re: Mary Meeker’s eye-popping annual Internet Trends report hits the web

#31

Post by Aloisius »

nick_urban wrote: post #5

The biggest take-away for me is that we are changing the way we do... pretty much everything. Two things I noticed: 1. There is a big shift towards convenience and broader participation. 2. An increasing proportion of our activities are conducted through smart phones and tablets instead of going somewhere or using a device specifically designed for a given purpose. Many activities are becoming "just another app" and…

At the current rate, in 2025, the government will be spending more on entitlements and interest alone (NOT taking into account government spending on defense, education, etc.) than they have revenue.

According to the pessimistic "Alternative Fiscal Scenario" in the 2011 CBO budget forecast estimate, this won't be true until after 2035 (the last year they estimate for). Ms. Meeker decided to use an older 2010 CBO estimates to make her point.

Also the CBO makes it clear that it is healthcare spending, not social security, that is causing the vast majority of the trouble. Alas, 64% of the increase is apparently due to baby boomers. If the US government would stop passing the "doc fix", the Extended-Baseline Scenario of the CBO estimates would kick in and we'd be looking at nearly no spending growth past 2014.

Re: Mary Meeker’s eye-popping annual Internet Trends report hits the web

#32

Post by adventureful »

muzz wrote: post #15
adventureful wrote: post #10

Earlier quoted context omitted.

While I agree that it's hard to have a real discussion about SS or Medicare without people sensationalizing one side or the other, the math is very real and the consequences are already here. SS is bleeding out right now with a negative annual run, and will get worse every year for at least the next 20 years. There is no SS trust that we can tap into. It's all going to come from Fed monetization. By the time this dec…

The Social Security trust fund is $2.7 Trillion http://www.ssa.gov/oact/progdata/assets.html Changes to the program-- much smaller than the 1983 reform-- can insure solvency for a long, long time to come.

That trust fund doesn't exist, there is no actual money in it, as noted by the other comments.

The Federal Reserve ultimately will lend the US Government that money (the Fed is now buying 95% of all long term US govt debt), now with interest on the debt, instead of there being an actual trust there earning interest.

So any math that relies on that trust existing, is Enron accounting.

Re: Mary Meeker’s eye-popping annual Internet Trends report hits the web

#33

Post by Codhisattva »

ceejayoz wrote: post #28
Aloisius wrote: post #27

I find most of her slides interesting, but she circled the area from around 2002 to 2011 on slide 96 as "the biggest peacetime gap between revenue and expenses in USA history." I'm not sure Ms. Meeker is aware, but we are _at war_ right now. For most of that period, we were fighting multiple wars at once. Further, she used the 2010 budget outlook report from the CBO which takes the most pessimistic view that the Bush…

> I'm not sure Ms. Meeker is aware, but we are at war right now. For most of that period, we were fighting multiple wars at once. This speaks to how little the wars have affected Americans as a whole. No significant cuts in programs, no higher taxes to pay for the outlay, no draft of young men and women. For probably 99% of the population, the only effect the wars have had is something extra to hear about on the TV.…

Well that's the mass media and government line, but the reality is that war spending has affected everything from state budgets to employment.

Re: Mary Meeker’s eye-popping annual Internet Trends report hits the web

#34

Post by adventureful »

Aloisius wrote: post #23
acheron wrote: post #20

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"those receiving it paid for"? I don't think you understand how Social Security works. Look up "Ponzi scheme" for more information.

A ponzi scheme requires intentional fraud. You have to believe you are investing in something real, not simply paying back someone else. Social security is very clear what is going on. It also has mandatory new participants which keeps it from collapsing as well as well understood economic increases. The same thing happens with corporate pension plans, interest on treasury bills and any number of other systems that r…

It's a partial ponzi scheme, but it has nothing to do with the system itself, it has to do with what the Fed is doing to our currency. The people paying in are not going to get all of their money back out of it.

The fact that you're going to get a massively debased dollar back for each dollar you put in alone means it's a fraudulent process as it stands today (again due to our government's fiscal irresponsibility). The calculations used for inflation adjustments are about as bunk as you can get for govt numbers. The Fed has managed a catastrophic devaluing of the dollar over the last 50 years, and that's only likely to accelerate given their need to massively monetize our deficits and debts.

Re: Mary Meeker’s eye-popping annual Internet Trends report hits the web

#35

Post by pessimizer »

Aloisius wrote: post #27

I find most of her slides interesting, but she circled the area from around 2002 to 2011 on slide 96 as "the biggest peacetime gap between revenue and expenses in USA history." I'm not sure Ms. Meeker is aware, but we are _at war_ right now. For most of that period, we were fighting multiple wars at once. Further, she used the 2010 budget outlook report from the CBO which takes the most pessimistic view that the Bush…

We've been at war since 1898, usually fighting more than one at once.

Healthcare costs are 120% of the problem.

Re: Mary Meeker’s eye-popping annual Internet Trends report hits the web

#36

Post by mikecane »

Amazed that one of the biggest changes is something she missed. How mobile tech changed the face and effectiveness of protest, from Egypt and the Mid-East to Occupy and ongoing (current protests in Quebec).

Also missing is how effective live video -- especially Ustream -- has been in bypassing the MSM TV news to show the actions of police directly. And how such footage has been used to void arrests of protesters by perjuring police.

Re: Mary Meeker’s eye-popping annual Internet Trends report hits the web

#37

Post by potatolicious »

mikecane wrote: post #36

Amazed that one of the biggest changes is something she missed. How mobile tech changed the face and effectiveness of protest, from Egypt and the Mid-East to Occupy and ongoing (current protests in Quebec). Also missing is how effective live video -- especially Ustream -- has been in bypassing the MSM TV news to show the actions of police directly. And how such footage has been used to void arrests of protesters by p…

Not being in the Middle East (or ever having been, ever), I have to question that narrative, though it's a common one.

We know the Egyptian government eventually shut down internet access (leading to ingenious hacks, such as the Twitter-voice-recognition-bot Google wrote), but the protests continued unabated.

I'm sure social media had some role to play in the Arab Spring - but the extent of it I feel has been blown out of proportion by technocrats all too ready to self-congratulate.

After all, it feels nicer if you're not building that tool by which millions can breathlessly follow the every move of B-list celebrities. Indeed, wouldn't it be nice if all the hours we spend in air-conditioned offices was actually freedom fighting?

Re: Mary Meeker’s eye-popping annual Internet Trends report hits the web

#38

Post by waterlesscloud »

Aloisius wrote: post #27

I find most of her slides interesting, but she circled the area from around 2002 to 2011 on slide 96 as "the biggest peacetime gap between revenue and expenses in USA history." I'm not sure Ms. Meeker is aware, but we are _at war_ right now. For most of that period, we were fighting multiple wars at once. Further, she used the 2010 budget outlook report from the CBO which takes the most pessimistic view that the Bush…

Healthcare falls under entitlements.

Re: Mary Meeker’s eye-popping annual Internet Trends report hits the web

#39

Post by ShardPhoenix »

dxbydt wrote: post #18
adventureful wrote: post #11

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What key role did Meeker play in creating the first tech bubble?

Google page 179 "Hedgehogging" by Barton Biggs. There's one whole chapter in that book that's an indictment of Meeker, Blodget, Quattrone, Glassman ( the Dow 36000 guy ) and the rest of the folks who supplied the oxygen for the previous bubble. And now Meeker's back...so that should signal something. The key incident was the conference were Biggs was asked "Is the internet revolutionary ?".Biggs said "No". A collecti…

He may have been right not to get caught in the bubble hype, but the internet has been revolutionary - sometimes literally.

Re: Mary Meeker’s eye-popping annual Internet Trends report hits the web

#40

Post by [deleted] »

Aloisius wrote: post #23
acheron wrote: post #20

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"those receiving it paid for"? I don't think you understand how Social Security works. Look up "Ponzi scheme" for more information.

A ponzi scheme requires intentional fraud. You have to believe you are investing in something real, not simply paying back someone else. Social security is very clear what is going on. It also has mandatory new participants which keeps it from collapsing as well as well understood economic increases. The same thing happens with corporate pension plans, interest on treasury bills and any number of other systems that r…

[deleted]
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