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Jan Leike's OpenAI departure statement

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Re: Jan Leike's OpenAI departure statement

#31

Post by mitthrowaway2 »

Aperocky wrote: post #19
llamaimperative wrote: post #6

This won't make a dent in the logical armor of AI optimists: [ ] If you are not intimately familiar with the development of AI, your warnings on safety can be disregarded due to your basic ignorance about the development of AI [x] If you are intimately familiar with the development of AI, your warnings on safety can be disregarded due to potential conflicts of interest and koolaid drinking Unbridled optimism lives an…

That's an over complication, how about my naive belief that LLMs (and increasing the size of) don't lead to AGI. Not saying AGI is impossible, just think the large models and the underlying statistic model beneath are not the path.

I think they aren't the full answer, no matter how much they're scaled up. But they may be one essential element of a working solution, and perhaps one or two brilliant insights away. I also think that some of the money being invested into the LLM craze will be directed into the search for those other brilliant insights.

Re: Jan Leike's OpenAI departure statement

#33

Post by mitthrowaway2 »

tptacek wrote: post #11
llamaimperative wrote: post #7

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What does "if you think AGI superintelligence is a thing" mean? If you believe it exists currently, could exist, will exist, or something else?

Any of the above. Maybe, if you really want to put some unneeded extra rigor on the analysis, add "within the lifetime of anyone born in 2024". I don't want to, like, have the argument here about it. Nobody will persuade anybody of anything. But it is not a truth universally acknowledged that AGI superintelligence is actually a thing. There are other reasons to have qualms about OpenAI! They could be misleading the m…

Why would you have to pay attention regardless? Is an OpenAI researcher's departure a subject that interests you, or is it not? It sounds like it's not.

Re: Jan Leike's OpenAI departure statement

#34

Post by Aperocky »

amenhotep wrote: post #27

"Learn to feel the AGI" shades of > Anticipating the arrival of this all-powerful technology, Sutskever began to behave like a spiritual leader, three employees who worked with him told us. His constant, enthusiastic refrain was “feel the AGI,” a reference to the idea that the company was on the cusp of its ultimate goal. At OpenAI’s 2022 holiday party, held at the California Academy of Sciences, Sutskever led employ…

tbh it smells like they've brought in too much to their own hype.

Nothing OpenAI have done more recently suggest to me that they are closer to the AGI. They did create a bunch of other models with different input format that are probably based off pretty much the same thing. And it looks like those other models will be much more expensive to run and burn up their runway sooner.

Re: Jan Leike's OpenAI departure statement

#35

Post by nen-nomad »

It is excellent that he is speaking out.

I don't believe we can create something more intelligent than us. Smarter, yes, but not more intelligent. We will always have a deeper and more nuanced understanding of reality than our artificial counterparts. But it does not mean that AI can not be a danger.

Re: Jan Leike's OpenAI departure statement

#36

Post by 123yawaworht456 »

llamaimperative wrote: post #29
123yawaworht456 wrote: post #18

"sailing against the wind" is a very apt description of hardlining Yuddite philosophy when your company's models got maybe 20% better in the past two years (original GPT4 is still the best model I've dealt with to this day), while local models got 1000% better. we should all thank G-d these people weren't around during the advent of personal computing and the internet - we'd have word filters in our fucking text proc…

we should all thank G-d similar people have been generally in charge of bioengineering and nuclear development labs else we'd have... err nothing. We'd have pretty much nothing at all.

nukes are an excellent example, actually! for how many years did the US maintain its monopoly on nuclear weapons, pray tell?

Re: Jan Leike's OpenAI departure statement

#37

Post by Aperocky »

MVissers wrote: post #10
aantix wrote: post #5

He's convinced that AGI is an eventuality. His call for preparation makes it sound like it's near.

Probably within 5 years. Compute growing exponentially, algorithm improvement as well, multi modalities allows for different type of data training, etc… Yeah, this shit is near. Also- Quite a dangerous experiment we’re running. And safety-first people are not at the helm anymore.

The premise is that LLMs are a path to AGI.

I'm not convinced, you can throw all the compute (btw, it's not growing exponentially any more, we have arrived at atom scale) at it and I'm not convinced this will lead to AGI.

Our rudimentary, underpowered brain is GI, now you're telling me stacking more GPU bricks will lead to AGI? If it indeed does, it would have came by now.

Re: Jan Leike's OpenAI departure statement

#38

Post by JohnBrookz »

Atotalnoob wrote: post #22
ldayley wrote: post #3

Thank you Jan for your work and your courage to act and speak candidly about these important topics. Open question to HN: to your knowledge/experience which AGI-building companies or projects have a culture most closely aligned with keeping safety, security, privacy, etc. as high a priority as “winning the race” on this new frontier land-grab? I’d love to find and support those teams over the teams that spend more ti…

Anthropic would probably be the closest to this. AFAIK they are still for profit, but they split from OpenAI because they disagreed with the lack of safety culture from OpenAI. This is also seen in their llms which are less capable due to their safety limitations

Ironic. The product I’m building relies on Haiku. It’s brilliant, cheap and fast. Their models are very capable and much more accessible to small companies.

Re: Jan Leike's OpenAI departure statement

#39

Post by tptacek »

mitthrowaway2 wrote: post #33
tptacek wrote: post #11

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Any of the above. Maybe, if you really want to put some unneeded extra rigor on the analysis, add "within the lifetime of anyone born in 2024". I don't want to, like, have the argument here about it. Nobody will persuade anybody of anything. But it is not a truth universally acknowledged that AGI superintelligence is actually a thing. There are other reasons to have qualms about OpenAI! They could be misleading the m…

Why would you have to pay attention regardless? Is an OpenAI researcher's departure a subject that interests you, or is it not? It sounds like it's not.

It depends on why they resigned!

Re: Jan Leike's OpenAI departure statement

#40

Post by ZiiS »

MVissers wrote: post #12
tempsy wrote: post #9

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Hard to imagine. But if you actually believe that there's probably a bunch of ways to make millions in public markets betting on that outcome.

How? Interesting co’s are private (openai, groq, etc). Nvidia already huge. Microsoft and Apple are more users.

If it economically better to hire AI then humans for most jobs, and they only need Nvidia hardare and electricity then today's Nvidia are tiny, real tiny.
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