The good news is you’ve taken your foot off the gas. The bad news is the car is going 100mph and there is a cliff edge in 10 feet.
The world has probably passed peak pollution
31–40 of 383 posts
Re: The world has probably passed peak pollution
#32Earlier quoted context omitted.
Wow, seeing peak baby is a little scary honestly. I had always thought that low birth rates were a problem for only countries like Germany, Spain, Japan, etc. (at least for the time being). Seeing countries like India even out (and even going under replacement rate) gives me some heavy pessimism about population graying. I had always thought that heavy swingers like them would carry on the whole growing population th…
> Wow, seeing peak baby is a little scary honestly Are you worried 8 billion is somehow not enough humans?
100% agree, this is not a real problem and is better than the alternative.
Re: The world has probably passed peak pollution
#33Earlier quoted context omitted.
Who is to say children today will have children of their own tomorrow? People who are choosing not to have kids “leaving the gene pool” (you say it as if they are some filth to be done away with) doesn’t change anything.
If you don’t reproduce then your genes are not passed on. You have self-selected not to be part of the human race any longer. My hunch is that the people who still decide to reproduce, despite all the reasons people who advocate for not having children talk about, likely have some sort of genetic predisposition for reproduction - a strong innate need. After all the non-breeders die off, the future belongs to the repr…
What a wild take. This is like claiming gay people will "die off" in 2 generations because they don't reproduce.
1000 years ago some subset of people chose not to have children, and humanity did just fine, and that same group of so-called "non-breeders" still exists today. Therefore we can conclude it's not purely a matter of genetics. There are a huge number of reasons people make that choice. People even change their minds during their life. It's not just a YES/NO switch in your genetic code somewhere.
Re: The world has probably passed peak pollution
#34That's encouraging. - Peak pollution - check. - Peak coal - not yet. - Peak oil - maybe 2019, but aftermath of COVID affects numbers.[1] - Peak baby - 2013. [2] [1] https://www.resilience.org/stories/2023-04-19/the-status-of-... [2] https://www.thenewdaily.com.au/life/2022/11/12/the-stats-guy...
Peak Coal - Probably, very likely, more or less about right now. Global coal supply likely peaked in 2023 and then to decline https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=38652273 Can't say for sure until another few years have passed, nonetheless every country in the world has coal on hold or in decline save for India and China. China is the largest producer of renewable technology and energy (?), India is building out the…
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Re: The world has probably passed peak pollution
#35Earlier quoted context omitted.
It's worth looking back at 50 years of fossil fuel producers going into overdrive on casting FUD on harmful effects of CO2 since it was first raised at the UN in the 1970s.
To clarify the article. This isn't peak CO2. It isn't even peak pollution. It's peak first derivative of pollution ex. greenhouse gases . We'll get to peak CO2 when emissions of CO2 are net zero, so in a few decades at best. Until then atmospheric carbon and average temperatures will keep rising.
IIRC I had to do some of that calculus stuff before cutting loose on writing upwards and downwards magnetic field continuations for geophysical exploration software suites, so, yep, cheers for that.
That aside, fifty years ago was when the dangers of increasing atmospheric insulation was raised as a serious potential issue in the UN, and fifty years ago was when the think tank ecology surrounding fossil fuel producers started churning articles on ice ages, Climate, who really knows?, killing public transport initiatives, etc.
Hindsight is famously 20|20 but it serves us well to remember past playbooks; it wasn't just pure stupidty, there were people who knew better actively promoting larger cars and greater per capita consumption rather than looking to lower total emissions.
Re: The world has probably passed peak pollution
#36That's encouraging. - Peak pollution - check. - Peak coal - not yet. - Peak oil - maybe 2019, but aftermath of COVID affects numbers.[1] - Peak baby - 2013. [2] [1] https://www.resilience.org/stories/2023-04-19/the-status-of-... [2] https://www.thenewdaily.com.au/life/2022/11/12/the-stats-guy...
Wow, seeing peak baby is a little scary honestly. I had always thought that low birth rates were a problem for only countries like Germany, Spain, Japan, etc. (at least for the time being). Seeing countries like India even out (and even going under replacement rate) gives me some heavy pessimism about population graying. I had always thought that heavy swingers like them would carry on the whole growing population th…
We still won't reach peak population until 2060 at the earliest, and more likely around 2100. [1] has a good graph by region on page 4, and a graph for world population near the end. Most regions haven't reached their population peak yet and subsaharan Africa is still growing strongly.
Of course a lot of this is just delayed by higher life expectancies. Aging populations will require major social reforms in our lifetime, and I don't think society is really prepared
1: https://www.un.org/development/desa/pd/sites/www.un.org.deve...
Re: The world has probably passed peak pollution
#37Earlier quoted context omitted.
Not just in terms of selecting genes, but also selecting cultures. If allele A causes increased desire to reproduce than allele B, then in a society in which reproduction is viewed as an optional extra, all else being equal , allele A is likely to predominate allele B over time. Conversely, in a more traditional society in which everyone is subject to a strong social expectation to reproduce, allele A would have far…
It’s surprising to me why my parent comment was down voted. It’s simple biology and mathematics. If you want culture to survive (if what is most important to you is cultural values) you must have a society with children in order to impart those values. There is no future for a society that discourages children.
> After all the non-breeders die off, the future belongs to the reproducers.
I suspect it was downvoted because that line suggests dismissal or contempt for people who don't have children.
There are many people across all generations who haven't had children (either by choice or because they were unable for various reasons), and their lifespans and social contributions are no more or less on average compared to people that do have children.
Re: The world has probably passed peak pollution
#38Earlier quoted context omitted.
My problem with the “peak population” hypothesis is that all of the non-breeders will eliminate themselves from the gene pool soon. All of us that have kids for whatever reason chose to reproduce despite the abundance of modern society. Also the groups that have many kids (the Amish have 7 children on average, and you also have Mormons and Orthodox Jews) will expand exponentially.
Who is to say children today will have children of their own tomorrow? People who are choosing not to have kids “leaving the gene pool” (you say it as if they are some filth to be done away with) doesn’t change anything.
The people of typical child rearing age today grew up in the "16 and pregnant" era, where having children was demonized. They were told that to have children was a failing, and that they should focus on their career instead – that was the key to a successful, happy life. Social pressure is a hell of a drug.
Is that fashion going to remain, though? Everything goes out of style eventually. I think we are already seeing some cracks where people are starting to question why having children is so "wrong". Nothing happens overnight, but I'm not so sure the children today will grow up in that same environment.
Re: The world has probably passed peak pollution
#39Earlier quoted context omitted.
Peak Coal - Probably, very likely, more or less about right now. Global coal supply likely peaked in 2023 and then to decline https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=38652273 Can't say for sure until another few years have passed, nonetheless every country in the world has coal on hold or in decline save for India and China. China is the largest producer of renewable technology and energy (?), India is building out the…
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In the same way that your local power plant isn't solely responsible for the pollution created in heating surrounding homes, it's probably not reasonable to look at the places that have done the fabricating, weaving, injection molding, spinning, etc for the rest of the world as being the major center of pollution.
China specifically is decarbonizing fast, and at some expense to their own economy over the last decade or so.
Re: The world has probably passed peak pollution
#40Earlier quoted context omitted.
Peak Coal - Probably, very likely, more or less about right now. Global coal supply likely peaked in 2023 and then to decline https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=38652273 Can't say for sure until another few years have passed, nonetheless every country in the world has coal on hold or in decline save for India and China. China is the largest producer of renewable technology and energy (?), India is building out the…
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Do you believe what you wrote here is a constructive, insightful comment? The comment you are replying to addressed that even India and China are building renewables.
It requires very little energy for you to spread negativity but potentially thousands of people then have to internalize it. Why choose to do that?
Like burning coal, your negativity pollutes the environment of HN and the internet at large.