'The Golden Age of Silicon Valley Is Over, and We're Dancing on its Grave' • Hacker News Board

Re: 'The Golden Age of Silicon Valley Is Over, and We're Dancing on its Grave'

#31

Post by qohen » Fri, May 18, 2012, 9:07 PM UTC

earl wrote: post #17

JPKab wrote: post #3

"THOMPSON: Is Facebook worth $100 billion? BLANK: In the last bubble there were no customers. Facebook makes $4 per user. The users are customers. They produce real revenue. Nobody's debating whether Facebook can make money. They're debating how much more valuable Facebook's hundreds of millions of users can be, and how fast can they can grow that value. That's an execution problem." Facebook makes $4 per user from a…

One, you presume that advertisers are incredibly naive and don't measure returns. Obviously cleanly measuring advertising returns from fb is hard, but it's still being done. Second, fb can put up the first credible alternative to adsense since they collect browsing info from their fb login and other widgets. In fact, they can do better than adsense: fb can mix in very accurate demographics alongside the page context.…

> One, you presume that advertisers are incredibly naive and don't measure returns.

What if there were enough naive newbies to keep things afloat even in the face of advertisers who became disillusioned?

http://www.jperla.com/blog/post/facebook-is-a-ponzi-scheme

(via: http://www.forbes.com/sites/ryanholiday/2012/05/17/why-i-los... )

Re: 'The Golden Age of Silicon Valley Is Over, and We're Dancing on its Grave'

#32

Post by ericd » Fri, May 18, 2012, 9:08 PM UTC

akg wrote: post #15

recursive wrote: post #8

Earlier quoted context omitted.

He's absolutely correct. Automated cars will have a much bigger effect than iPads. So much time is wasted driving.

If time is wasted driving, is building more efficient cars really the solution? I would venture that technology that makes the world a lot smaller and puts information at your fingertips, e.g., tablets, phones, social networks, etc. will be a much bigger disrupter in the way we live our current lives. Maybe in the future we won't have to drive as much since we can just get things done without having to waste time in…

Many people spend 10% of their waking lives in cars, and more of it earning money to afford their cars. Automatic driving with the associated ease of fractional car ownership is potentially huge. Keep in mind that not everyone works at a desk job that can almost as easily be done remotely.

Social networks really, really aren't nearly as impactful in the the productive sense. They've mostly made it easier to chat with more people, and browse through more photos - things that are intensely interesting to people, but not really useful.

Re: 'The Golden Age of Silicon Valley Is Over, and We're Dancing on its Grave'

#33

Post by jonny_eh » Fri, May 18, 2012, 9:08 PM UTC

It's easy to downplay the impact of Facebook compared to the kind of stuff Elon Musk is doing, but it was only last year that we saw dictators being overthrown with the help of social networks like Facebook. That's pretty cool too, no?

Re: 'The Golden Age of Silicon Valley Is Over, and We're Dancing on its Grave'

#34

Post by base698 » Fri, May 18, 2012, 9:09 PM UTC

asto wrote: post #14

InclinedPlane wrote: post #11

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is just blatantly wrong. Yes automated cars will be a huge deal, but discounting the iPad is just prejudice pretending to be insight. The mobile OS experience and the tablet PC are very much the next phase of evolution of the computer. Right now the iPad is trailblazing the way as a very high markup luxury good but even so it's proving to be enormously disruptive. When the second shoe drops on the tablet PC revo…

What will it disrupt exactly? Example? As far as I can tell, it is merely a device that affords convenience.

Well one thing are those god awful POS systems like Micros: http://www.micros.com/

Re: 'The Golden Age of Silicon Valley Is Over, and We're Dancing on its Grave'

#35

Post by Someone » Fri, May 18, 2012, 9:09 PM UTC

recursive wrote: post #8

Bud wrote: post #5

Who cares what this guy thinks? He doesn't count either the iPhone or iPad among the most important innovations of the last 5 years, but two of his 4 choices are about cars, and another is Google Goggles. He also surmises that Silicon Valley is dead because of a few observations about Facebook, while ignoring that Apple has become the largest company in the history of the known universe.

He's absolutely correct. Automated cars will have a much bigger effect than iPads. So much time is wasted driving.

I sort-of agree with you, but I wonder whether the effects of automated driving will be positive. Firstly, I doubt most current drivers will be extra productive in the time they gain once they have an automated car. Secondly, I worry whether those who currently drive cars professionally will get any job at all once we have automated cars.

Re: 'The Golden Age of Silicon Valley Is Over, and We're Dancing on its Grave'

#36

Post by ericd » Fri, May 18, 2012, 9:14 PM UTC

nextstep wrote: post #24

Google Goggles is an augmented reality app that basically layers Yelp reviews over Google Maps Streetview. Did he mean Google Glass, the AR glasses that Google made a video about? Does this guy really think that the Google Glass project is groundbreaking? If it's so Earth-shattering, why am I typing this on an iPad and not through some next generation AR display on my head?!

Because Glass hasn't been released yet.

Re: 'The Golden Age of Silicon Valley Is Over, and We're Dancing on its Grave'

#37

Post by jstrate » Fri, May 18, 2012, 9:15 PM UTC

I see a lot of comments addressed to "this guy" referring to Steve Blank. Let's not forget he's been involved in silicon valley startups since the 70s, including founding semiconductor companies. While they're no hello world rails startup, he has a proven track record and a first-hand experience of how the valley has evolved.

I suspect many of you haven't seen his take on the history of the valley, which might give context to his views.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZTC_RxWN_xo

Re: 'The Golden Age of Silicon Valley Is Over, and We're Dancing on its Grave'

#38

Post by ericd » Fri, May 18, 2012, 9:16 PM UTC

b_emery wrote: post #23

JPKab wrote: post #6

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Cars that drive themselves. Distributed power generation. Web connected sensors in everything. You know, things that have a material effect on people's quality of life. As opposed to Facebook.

> things that have a material effect on people's quality of life. As opposed to Facebook. As much as I dislike Facebook, there is some scientific evidence that increasing one's social ties produces measurable improvements to health, including longevity. If Facebook increases social connectivity, which in my limited experience it does, it's not a stretch to suggest that it could materially improve one's quality of lif…

I believe that that evidence is based on close friends. I think Facebook tends to make it easier to maintain lots of light friendships, but doesn't do much for close friendships.

Re: 'The Golden Age of Silicon Valley Is Over, and We're Dancing on its Grave'

#39

Post by dm8 » Fri, May 18, 2012, 9:19 PM UTC

Given the macro trend of "software is eating the world", its very likely that investors will chase $$ for dot com startups (or mobile apps nowadays). I completely agree that SpaceX, Tesla, Google Self-driving cars are proper engineering projects but I will try to be devil's advocate. Google (even thought its a Internet company) revolutionized the information organization and retrieval, we are much better because of it. Facebook connected the whole world on the Internet. LinkedIn created professional network where it is much easier for people to connect and benefit (especially Sales guys and recruiters). Twitter is helping in democratic movements across the globe. GroupOn made it easier for local SMBs to advertise. And there are companies like AirBnB who made it possible to profit from entirely new concepts.

Of course, for every Facebook there is a Zynga whose major accomplishment is pasting cows on the Internet. Unfortunately, too many "real engineers" are jumping on SoLoMo bandwagon and that is hampering real innovation.

Re: 'The Golden Age of Silicon Valley Is Over, and We're Dancing on its Grave'

#40

Post by btian » Fri, May 18, 2012, 9:21 PM UTC

akg wrote: post #15

recursive wrote: post #8

Earlier quoted context omitted.

He's absolutely correct. Automated cars will have a much bigger effect than iPads. So much time is wasted driving.

If time is wasted driving, is building more efficient cars really the solution? I would venture that technology that makes the world a lot smaller and puts information at your fingertips, e.g., tablets, phones, social networks, etc. will be a much bigger disrupter in the way we live our current lives. Maybe in the future we won't have to drive as much since we can just get things done without having to waste time in…

Information is one thing, but for many things you just can't do remotely. You can't transport iPhones from the airport to your home remotely, can't send kids to school remotely, can't go to a nice restaurant remotely.