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Are We Living in the Roaring 20s?

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Re: Are We Living in the Roaring 20s?

#31

Post by smallmancontrov »

hsyehbeidhh wrote: post #17
ddorian43 wrote: post #6

Whatever it is, it doesn't look good for young people. Good luck to them buying a house with these prices & interest rates, or trying to save for a downpayment while renting. The previous generation is hellbent on maximum extraction & I got mine mentality & rent-seeking.

[flagged]

It's zoning and transportation policy that pump housing prices to the moon, not onlyfans.

What prevents ownership? It's tax policy that rests heavily on capital-labor interactions and barely at all on capital-capital interactions. Monetary policy that deflates wages but not asset values. Trade policy that pumps assets and dumps exports.

Trans people did not do this. The self-serving policies of asset owners did this.

Re: Are We Living in the Roaring 20s?

#32

Post by bryanlarsen »

ddorian43 wrote: post #6

Whatever it is, it doesn't look good for young people. Good luck to them buying a house with these prices & interest rates, or trying to save for a downpayment while renting. The previous generation is hellbent on maximum extraction & I got mine mentality & rent-seeking.

I'd rather be a young person in the 2020's than a young person in the 1920's. That group was called the "greatest generation" for a reason, and it wasn't because they had it easy.

Re: Are We Living in the Roaring 20s?

#33

Post by afavour »

mantas wrote: post #28
afavour wrote: post #24

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> “You’ll own nothing and be happy”, remember? > They convinced young women that it’s a sign of independence to have an OF, the Europeans that Russia is an enemy, and half the western population that men can be women. The latter has absolutely zero to do with the former, it's just a grab bag of reactionary culture complaints (and the Russia one is just straightforwardly true). Which, ironically, is exactly what the g…

Catch-22. If you sign off on postmodern culture, you loose. If you argue over talking points of postmodern culture, you loose.

> If you sign off on postmodern culture, you loose.

In what way? To take OP's examples, in what way do I lose when OnlyFans exists, or when people are able to change their gender if they wish to?

Re: Are We Living in the Roaring 20s?

#34

Post by arrowsmith »

hsyehbeidhh wrote: post #17
ddorian43 wrote: post #6

Whatever it is, it doesn't look good for young people. Good luck to them buying a house with these prices & interest rates, or trying to save for a downpayment while renting. The previous generation is hellbent on maximum extraction & I got mine mentality & rent-seeking.

[flagged]

People in Europe think that Russia is their enemy? Gee, I wonder why. Has Russia done anything to make enemies lately?

Re: Are We Living in the Roaring 20s?

#35

Post by sofixa »

karaterobot wrote: post #20

The evidence offered is that the economy is doing well, people are traveling, and there is some technological innovation happening. As though that were unique. He then dismisses certain other, less convenient evidence, like consumer sentiment, and simply doesn't bring up any other changes in the macroeconomic climate over the last 100 years. I would like to know what about the balance of evidence is unique enough to…

It's all the vague similarities - pandemics, wars, economic boom suspiciously looking like a bubble (be it the fact that many people can no longer afford housing, or that anyone and their grandfather is investing somehow).

So nothing conclusive, but if we had conclusive metrics to point to that could indicate an economic bust is coming, we would be able to implement policies to prevent them.

Re: Are We Living in the Roaring 20s?

#36

Post by _heimdall »

asynchronous wrote: post #7
ddorian43 wrote: post #6

Whatever it is, it doesn't look good for young people. Good luck to them buying a house with these prices & interest rates, or trying to save for a downpayment while renting. The previous generation is hellbent on maximum extraction & I got mine mentality & rent-seeking.

The inevitable outcome seems to be the younger generation giving up altogether and then social security is going to dry up real fast.

Social security is probably pretty low on the list of concerns if the younger generation(s) effectively give up.

When economies really get tough countries usually go to war, or the country fails entirely.

Re: Are We Living in the Roaring 20s?

#37

Post by smallmancontrov »

mantas wrote: post #26
hsyehbeidhh wrote: post #17

Earlier quoted context omitted.

[flagged]

> the Europeans that Russia is an enemy Please. Russia is an enemy since forever. Sincerely, eastern europe. If you don't agree with some stuff your government is aggressively pushing, it doesn't mean everything is simply reverse.

Unfortunately it's not just contrarianism, the American right wing loves Russia now.

Re: Are We Living in the Roaring 20s?

#38

Post by gspencley »

ddorian43 wrote: post #12
asynchronous wrote: post #7

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The inevitable outcome seems to be the younger generation giving up altogether and then social security is going to dry up real fast.

Especially with real estate. Either rent indefinetily by paying their pension , buy the house for 2x-3x+ the monthly rent so you pay their pension in lump sum, or go 1+ hour away from city(also high cost in terms of time etc). The politicians are also older people who can't empathize. The young also don't vote. And if you do buy high now, who are you gonna sell even higher when you retire, since there are so few new…

> The young also don't vote.

This might change, fast.

I have two daughters who are in their early 20s. My oldest daughter, 24, has dreamed of buying a home and starting a family with her high school sweetheart of 10 years and her dream has been completely shattered.

The saddest part is, this isn't even just about buying a home. She's not going to start a family until they are no longer living with us and have a house of their own. But the longer it takes for that to happen, the more difficult and risky it becomes for her to start that family and forget about having 3+ children and starting at 35. That's even if there is a correction in the next 10 years.

So her dreams are completely shattered. She's not the only Gen Z out there that had these types of hopes and ambitions throughout their adolescence and early adulthood and are now feeling completely hopeless.

Just recently, here in Canada, there was a leaked RCMP report issued to the government warning it of potential civil unrest due the economic and housing crises: https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/rcmp-police-future-trends-1...

Yes, it may be true that unemployment is at a low and stocks are up. That means absolutely nothing to young adults in their 20s who are still living with their parents, not by choice but because they have absolutely no hope of ever being able to buy a home of their own.

So I wouldn't be surprised if in the coming years we see record turn-outs of young voters.

Re: Are We Living in the Roaring 20s?

#39

Post by forgotmyinfo »

pfdietz wrote: post #15
ddorian43 wrote: post #6

Whatever it is, it doesn't look good for young people. Good luck to them buying a house with these prices & interest rates, or trying to save for a downpayment while renting. The previous generation is hellbent on maximum extraction & I got mine mentality & rent-seeking.

My daughter just bought her first house.

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Re: Are We Living in the Roaring 20s?

#40

Post by JKCalhoun »

xadhominemx wrote: post #29
francisofascii wrote: post #8

> Are We Living in the Roaring 20s? Yes, the post Flu/Covid effect, insane asset prices, vacations, etc. all line up. Shiller PE is at 34, which is higher than in 1929. I am somewhat optimistic we can experience a softer landing than The Great Depression. The Fed hinting a lower rates might be an indication of them understanding the risks of a crash. The problem is due to the systemic nature of the system, a boom can…

Are asset prices insane? Home prices are high but in-line with the long-term trend on a real basis. The stock market is rallying but it's been mostly becasue earnings are good. Why would you mention the great depression? To be honest it makes you seem unhinged and not credible.

> Why would you mention the great depression? To be honest it makes you seem unhinged and not credible.

Anyone denying the possibility of another or similar Great Depression would seem to me to have no credibility. But maybe it's because I'm cynical.

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